Throughout this I am using singular in reference to the killer. It may very well be a team effort. No conclusion is possible yet.
First the facts:
1. The killer/killers is using a firearm that fires a .224 diameter bullet.
2. So far the killer has made at least one head shot. The lady sitting on a bench in front of the post office.
3. Several witnesses have heard the sound of a rifle shot.
4. Most of the victims have been shot while in relatively affluent suburban areas.( The exception maybe the man killed in DC proper. I don't know enough about the area to know if it is affluent or not.)
5. The killer fires at most one shot.
6. The killer has scored a hit everytime except once. Then he fired through a pane of glass.
Reasonable conjecture:
1. The killer is most definitely mobile in a vehicle of some sort. The killer is either firing from a vehicle or is in immediate proximity to a vehicle.
2. The killer does not appear to be motivated by race. His victims are a mixed variety of different races.
3. The killer shows some concern for escape routes. He is making most of his shots in areas near major through fares.
Speculation:
1. The killer is using a bolt action scoped rifle. Each time one and only one shot is fired. I think if anybody had access to a semiauto rifle more than one shot would have been fired at some time. Also a brass catcher would not have to be used. The one lady who was shot in the head would have been a difficult shot with iron sights only.
2. The killer is most likely using an actual .223 caliber rifle. This is the most common type of rifle available in that bullet diameter.
3. The killer is using FMJ type bullets. Two reasons for believing this. First several of the shots are trough and through. Meaning the victim has both an exit and an entry wound. Most .223 diameter bullets that are not FMJ designs have a very thin jacket that fragments on impact. The first shot at the michaels went through a glass window, part of the cash register and then a book rack. A thin jacket bullet would have broken up. Secondly, a varmit bullet would pulverize a very large area. Two of the victims in this case had exit wounds about the size of a teacup. I have shot .223 FMJ bullets at animals and this correlates with my experinces. A Varmit bullet would leave a larger exit cavity if it penetrated all the way through.
4. The killer does not display any great knowledge of firearms. It is possible to learn to do everything that he has done with only one weeks training. Learning to shoot a scoped rifle is considerably easier than shooting an iron sight rifle.
5. The choice of a .223 round is unusual. A person with a high knowledge of firearms would realize that they are seriously undergunned with a .223. Most people will survive hits from this type of weapon. A .30 caliber cartridge would be a surer bet for killing people.
6. The range the shots are being taken from is most likely 200 yards or less. The one head shot would tend to support this as well as the points made in speculations 4 and 5. A .223 would be less accurate at greater ranges due to less residual speed and the greater effect of wind on the lighter projectile.
7. It is highly unlikely that a 22-250 or 220 Swift is being used for the shots. This killer seems to use the KISS methodology. Keep It Simple Stupid. Also, if we accept the they are using FMJ bullets the killer would have to hand load FMJ bullets in those cartridges as I do not believe that anyone factory loads FMJ bullets in 22-250 or 22 Swift etc... It is only a .223 cartridge which is commonly found with .224 sized FMJ bullets. This would indicate greater knowledge of firearms which I believe would leave someone to choose a different caliber weapon.
8. The killer has been trained with a rudimentary method of operation that minimizes his risk. First, fire only one shot. Second, do not be too picky, shoot whatever target is available. Third, take you shot from an area which has good escape routes. Fourth, do not stick around and gawk.
9. Again I think the shooter is not an expert. Two other things about the shooters skill level come to mind. First of all he tried a shot through a window. Somebody who has extensively studied shooting would know this was a bad idea as the window can deflect a bullet. Second the use of a .223 round has one significant advantage to a novice shooter. It has very little recoil. It makes a lot of noise but does not have much bite. A novice shooter would have a much easier time hitting within this than with a larger rifle.
10. I think it is likely that two people are being used for the shooting team. One to drive and act as a lookout the other as the trigger man. So far the shooter has not made a mistake like taking a shot in the immediate presence of other people. It is hard to be focused on your shooting and looking all around yourself for potential witnesses.
11. The shooter is taking shots from inside a vehicle. The vehicle enclosure would serve to muffle the shot somewhat. The transfer from a vehicle to an outside shooting position would leave the shooter vulnerable to discovery. It would be much less notable if a window was simply left open on a vehicle, which then drove away. This follows the kiss rule exactly.
Conclusion:
We are looking for a two person team. I feel that they are probably shooting from inside an enclosed vehicle, van, truck with camper shell, rv, service van etc. The shooter leaves the immediate presence of each shooting asap after making the shot. The shooter is using a scoped .223 rifle with FMJ bullets. Look for a vehicle with Maryland tags on it. The change in tempo of the shootings from Wednesday-Thursday to Friday and today may mean that some fundamental change has been made in the method of operation. Either a different shooter, different vehicle, or the shooter is assuming that he is at greater risk due to the increase in awareness of everyone in the area
Question:
Is the shooter a domestic nut or terrorist? I believe that a domestic nut would be more likely to use a larger caliber weapon. They would also be more likely to be operating alone. I would have to believe that we are looking at some form of foreign inspired/directed terrorist.
Disclaimer: I do not pretend to have all of the answers. The above post is what merely seems reaonable to me. I could very well be wrong on many of the individual items in the list.
A.C.E
Acesss
Cover
Escape
The sniper chooses a victim providing he has all 3 of those components
A .30 cal cartridge would generate much more muzzle blast, which would increase the difficulty of evading detection. If the objective is to create terror, he doesn't need a 100% guaranteed kill. And he's killing the majority of who he hits
Not inside 150 yards. In this envelope the .223 is usually more lethal in typical configurations. At 200 yards plus, the pendulum swings in favor of the .30 caliber. A "person with a high knowledge of firearms" would have a more informed opinion of terminal ballistics than "bigger is better". For what these perps are doing, the .223 is nearly ideal.
That said, I believe it is safe to say that these guys are not "professionals" in the real sense of the word. Shooting through glass requires compensating for point of aim that very few people have been trained to do. An excellent shooter without experience shooting through materials might blow that shot, but a sniper with quality professional training would be substantially more "lucky". The fact that they missed a shot through glass is indicative of competent amateurs rather than trained pros.
Agreed that the .223 could be more easily handled by a novice, but not the part about it not having much bite. Police SWAT team stats show that the 5.56 has almost instantly killed or incapacitated 98 out of every 100 people hit in a vital area. I also knew some fellows who came back from Vietnam with a lot of respect for the damamge it could do the human body.
In TX the .223 with 60-70 grain soft points (NOT hollow points) is fast becoming a popular deer cartridge. I know of several local boys around here who have killed a good number of buck deer with one shot from a .223, and they say it drops them just as quickly as the mid-size bores do. I haven't shot anything but paper with a .223, but using Wolf Russian FMC ammo it doesn't take long to make splinters out of the sourwood logs I use for a backstop. You don't have to tear the body of either a man or a deer to pieces in order to kill him. A well designed .22 cal bullet with enough weight to give it high cross-sectional density delivered in the right place does the job quite well.
I know that discussing things like this may seem awfully callous to some people when 7 innocent people have just been shot with the same type bullets. But the subject of ballistics has been pretty thoroughly discussed on this thread, and you and I didn't start the discussion.