[Miss Marple]

Call me crazy, but somehow I don't think that the French would blow up an oil tanker in order to give themselves cover. And I don't think we would blow one up to force them to reconsider, since the result is not necessarily predictable.

Occam's Razor says it was Al Qaeda or sympathizers, who may not have realized it was a French tanker.

[MadIvan]

Occam's Razor says it was Al Qaeda or sympathizers, who may not have realized it was a French tanker.

I don't think Al Qaeda likes any Westerners, period. They may not be that discerning.

Regards, Ivan

[ffrancone]

What you said, Miss Marple

[ffrancone]

I would suggest that either al Qaeda or Iraq is deliberately attacking the French. Why? Neither want the French to approve the pending US security council resolution.

The paranoid "gulf of tonkin" argument is probably wrong. It suggests that the French actually want to invade Iraq and are looking for a pretext.

Rather than ascribing a sudden fit of bravery to the French leadership, a dubious proposition at best, it is much simpler to posit that Saddam doesn't want the French to approve the US Security council resolution. So he is firing a shot across their bow. It will work. They will bow.