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What the White House is Really Worried About – Nuclear Blackmail
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil ^
| Monday, August 26, 2002
| FoxPro
Posted on 09/26/2002 3:43:08 PM PDT by FoxPro
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To: Travis McGee
"You fatal error is in assuming that a MAD posture will work with an extreme sociopath like Saddam..." MAD doctrine is demonstrably ineffective against a.) madmen and b.) martyrs.
Thus, the Bush doctrine of preemption...
41
posted on
09/26/2002 6:01:23 PM PDT
by
okie01
To: FoxPro
This is an old concept that dates from WWII, when many argued that we should drop the A-bomb on top of Mt. Fuji instead of on a city, in order to demonstrate to the Japanese that they were powerless against us.
I think it is fatally flawed in the current situation for two reasons, one practical, one theoretical.
The practical problem: From the moment these devices get near the coast of the country they are subject to capture by the "enemy" (us). There are many points that radiation from such a device could be detected -- everything would have to go just right and no accidental discovery could occur throughout the complex process of importing and placing these devices. This is one of many reasons why no one risks their nuclear weapons in this manner -- the worst possible outcome is to have your ultimate weapon captured 10,000 miles from territory you control.
The theoretical: Even if an enemy nuclear device were exploded in such a manner as no one was killed by the blast, there would be significant environmental damage -- and merely the gaul of setting off such a device on our territory would be enough to result in a massive nuclear strike against Iraq. There is no way to do this in which there would not be an overwhelming response. Hell, we'd probably nuke Iraq if they even thought about such a thing.
To: mewzilla
Just out of curiosity, has anyone actually seen the Palermo Senator lately Not that I know of. Heard nothing about it offloading cargo, nor of it going to the two destinations it actually had: Norfolk and Savannah. And someone sent me an url belonging to the shipowners which was supposed to be giving current info on the ship's whereabouts - the day after the "tile" statement, it didn't work anymore.
43
posted on
09/26/2002 6:15:45 PM PDT
by
Cachelot
To: FoxPro
A rational government would respond to the "desert scenario" as follows:
1. Evacuate the cities.
2. Profile all middle-eastern looking people during evacuation.
3. Obliterate Iraq.
The great thing about evacuation is that who is that John Q. American probably has relatives in West Virginia (or some other rural area) where he can stay for a few days. Abdul Muhammad probably doesn't. The terrorists would be wandering up and down I 81 looking wondering where to go and what to do. Half decent law enforcement agents should be able to catch them.
I'm assuming a government that behaved rationally, of course. No telling what this government would do.
(Of course, if Bush ever did call for evacuation, Daschle would be decrying it as a partisan move solely intended to get votes. Conservatives would notice Daschle was making such remarks while huddled in some cave west of Mud Butte, South Dakota. We would call him on his hypocrisy. He would call us "mean spirited" which is Democratese for "You're right, now shut up!" And so goeth political discourse in America.)
To: Cachelot
Thanks for the info. Think I'll have another glass of port.
45
posted on
09/26/2002 6:25:21 PM PDT
by
mewzilla
To: Scott from the Left Coast
Good points. I was just setting a scenario where Iraq would garner a MAD equilibrium. Of course there could many different scenarios on this.
46
posted on
09/26/2002 6:27:53 PM PDT
by
FoxPro
To: FoxPro
Ya'll are missing the truely cunning approach. Which is, assuming he has more than 1 working nuke, he:
- Gets it smuggled into the US.
- Calls up the White house and has a quiet discussion with the appropriate person, tells them where it is.
- HEAT goes and finds it.
- Yep, its a live nuke. Confiscate it.
- Saddam calls back, asks - You find it yet?
- Yes, he is told, found it.
- Saddam says - more where that came from. They are dispersed. You invade, kill me, they get smuggled in and detonated. Now you know I have them. Leave me alone.
Bush team backs off, says lets go with weapons inspections. Because, by that strategy, Saddam shows that:
(a) He is sane enough not to preemptively strike when he has the chance.
(b) He deters any attack on him.
(c) By handling it real quiet he gives Bush a way to quietly back down.
(d) This plan would mean we don't get nuked
unless we attack him first. So he uses MAD against us!
Scary, huh?
To: dark_lord
Now there you go, we have a pitch for a movie script here. I like your deduction.
48
posted on
09/26/2002 6:37:45 PM PDT
by
FoxPro
To: FoxPro
After this, Hussein would appear in the media and credibly claim that he has hidden several of these devices in secret locations in New York, Washington, Chicago and Los Angeles. He would also state that any attack on his country would lead to massive destruction of these cities, immediately. Talk about emptying those cities out... You haven't seen an exodus like you would at that point.
49
posted on
09/26/2002 6:37:55 PM PDT
by
mhking
To: FoxPro
The only spot in Nevada where he'd set anything off is Las Vegas. When he's ready, he's gonna light two or three or four at once, hoping beyond hope that we'd be too busy dealing with the ensuing mess and panic here to turn the entire nation of Iraq into glazed stain glass instantly.
50
posted on
09/26/2002 6:40:13 PM PDT
by
mhking
To: JimSEA
Would anyone call his bluff? I think if anyone did, it would be curtains for this planet. I also think if we strike first, he knows it is over and will take millions of Americans with him.
To: My2Cents
And who's to say he doesn't have nukes positioned already? That's the scary thought. I think his weapons are in position - not nuclear bombs but weaponized anthrax. On command, an Iraqi janitor in every major city could take a couple pounds of the stuff in a soap container to the roof of a skyscraper and fling it over the side, killing 100,000 or more people. I think that was the point of last year's post 9/11 attacks - a warning that there was more to come.
To: Mr. Jeeves
From the letters: WE HAVE THIS ANTHRAX.......
To: Blueflag
LEVEL 3.1 tin foil alert ... I forget... is that orange tin foil or yellow tin foil?
To: dark_lord
If you had the Algore team in the White House, I'd believe that. I think that the Bush team is a bit closer to my way of thinking, which is that Baghdad would be the second target after Mecca.
55
posted on
09/26/2002 9:32:43 PM PDT
by
steveegg
To: okie01
I am amazed at the number of folks who cannot grasp this elemental truth.
To: Travis McGee; All
More recently, UN inspectors have learned that Iraq's first bomb design, which weighed a ton and was a full meter in diameter, was replaced by a smaller, more efficient model. From discussions with the Iraqis, the inspectors have deduced that the new design weighs only about 600 kilograms and measures only 600 to 650 millimeters in diameter. That makes it small enough to fit on Iraq's Scud-type missiles, some of which are still unaccounted for. Iraq has mastered the key technique of creating an implosive shock wave, which squeezes a bomb's nuclear material enough to trigger a chain reaction. The new Iraqi design also uses a "flying tamper," a refinement that "hammers" the nuclear material to squeeze it even harder, so that bombs can be made smaller without diminishing their explosive force. The inspectors have determined that Iraq now has a successful bomb design and lacks only the material to fuel it.
From iraqwatch.org
57
posted on
09/26/2002 10:51:18 PM PDT
by
seeker41
To: Cachelot
Debated catalytic warfare in 1963. I see China as the threat.
58
posted on
09/26/2002 10:57:41 PM PDT
by
chnsmok
To: seeker41
No doubt there is much Bush and his team know which cannot be told, and a good reason to hurry.
To: Mr. Jeeves
That cannot be ruled out, and must be taken seriously.
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