Posted on 08/28/2002 6:07:47 AM PDT by Coop
Edited on 07/12/2004 3:56:43 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
"Louisiana could well be the state that provides a Bush majority in the Senate," NRSC Executive Director Mitch Bainwol said in explaining why the Republican fund-raising committee decided to intervene in a Republican primary.
"I'm shocked," said state Sen. Tony Perkins, one of Mrs. Terrell's Republican primary rivals. Mr. Perkins says Mrs. Terrell is a centrist and that only a conservative like himself can win in the state.
(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...
And, as I said before, their numbers are obviously showing some kind of weakness in Landrieu's support. But I still view this race as a longshot.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, in a highly unusual move, has decided to commit nearly a half-million dollars to buy television advertising for Suzanne Haik Terrell, one of three Republican Senate primary candidates in Louisiana.
This is the reason I stopped giving to the NRSC. They seem to always support the more liberal Republican in primary races.
Landrieu runoff?
Advocate staff report
Could Louisiana's Republican U.S. Senate candidates force Democratic U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu into a runoff election in Nov. 5 balloting?There's a "strong probability" that could happen based on a poll released Saturday by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, spokesman Dan Allen said.
Republicans think they have a chance of defeating Landrieu in a December runoff.
In the telephone survey of 500 registered voters, Landrieu's favorable rating stood at 53 percent while her unfavorable registered 35 percent.
Landrieu is also held under 50 percent in a four-way race with Republican contenders U.S. Rep. John Cooksey of Monroe, state Rep. Tony Perkins of Pride and state Elections Commissioner Suzanne Terrell.
When those surveyed were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, Landrieu got 46 percent; Cooksey, 13 percent; Terrell, 10 percent; and Perkins, 6 percent.
Twenty-five percent of those surveyed wouldn't say or didn't know.
In head-to-head matchups, Landrieu barely went more than 50 percent against each of the three Republicans. Against Cooksey, Landrieu had 52 percent of the vote to Cooksey's 37 percent; Terrell, 51 percent to 38 percent; and Perkins 53 percent to 35 percent.
The survey, conducted July 29-30 by Voter Consumer Research, has a 4.5 percent plus or minus margin of error.
When it came to re-election, 41 percents said Landrieu deserves re-election and 49 percent said someone else should be given a chance.
When it came to Landrieu's voting records, 45 percent said she voted the way the national Democratic Party wants while 38 percent said she voted for Louisiana's values.
And on the question of whether Louisiana voters want someone to help President Bush or provide a check on him -- 45 percent of the respondents said help the president and 37 percent said to keep a check on him.
"After looking at these numbers and seeing Mary Landrieu's record, we see a strong potential for a runoff with our Republican candidates running against her," said Allen.
The bottom line analysis by the Republican committee: "Her numbers are weak."
Landrieu's campaign response:
"We don't believe it," said Landrieu spokesman Rich Masters. "We are still feeling good about this race."
"We have not seen anything that shows her in these dire straits."
Masters noted that the polling was done when Republicans were running television ads "distorting" and "lying about" Landrieu's record.
Landrieu is now on the air with ads of her own "setting the record straight."
Mixing it up
The National Republican Senatorial Committee poll is the second U.S. Senate poll released by Republican pollsters in recent days.
A poll done for GOP challenger U.S. Rep. John Cooksey shows incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu could also find herself in a runoff if she picks up certain Democratic opposition.
The telephone poll, by Arlington, Va.-based pollster David Winston, asked voters last month who they would vote for if the U.S. Senate race was held that day?
The poll put Landrieu and three announced Republican candidates -- Cooksey, state Rep. Tony Perkins and Elections Commissioner Suzanne Terrell in the field.
But the poll also threw in potential black Democratic contenders. One round included state Sen. Cleo Fields -- who has since said he won't make the race. In another, Raymond Brown, a New Orleans minister who says he's running, took Fields' place.
With either Fields or Brown in the line-up, Landrieu fell below 50 percent, said Winston.
"This is the first survey I've seen where she was likely to find herself in a runoff," said Winston.
With Fields in the race, Landrieu got 42 percent of the respondents' votes. With Brown in the race, she got 46 percent.
"The element here is it's not merely that she's under 50. There has to be work done positively to get her back over it and that's hard for an incumbent," said Winston.
In both lineups, Cooksey came in second in the mid-teens (14 percent with Fields and 16 percent with Brown). Terrell and Perkins approached double digits (9 percent and 8 percent, respectively). Fields garnered 11 percent and Brown 5 percent.
In both lineups, 16 percent of respondents said they were undecided.
"Let me not diminish the task on the Republican side," said Winston, who has done polling work for the U.S. House Republican Conference.
"The survey showed an opportunity that people didn't think was there, but there is a lot of work to be done too."
The poll, conducted July 9-10, involved 400 registered voters. There's a 4.9 percent plus or minus margin of error.
Cain not running
It's no secret that state Sen. James David Cain is interested in seeking statewide elected office.
But U.S. Senate?
Cain, a Democrat from Dry Creek, said he's had some legislators -- both black and white -- approach him about a run.
Running for U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu "really wasn't my agenda," Cain said last week.
"I do think Mary has some problems or they wouldn't be asking people like me to consider running," said Cain.
"People just don't think they have a candidate they feel comfortable with of all the candidates."
Cain said he thinks people are approaching him because he's raising his statewide profile by traveling the state opposing a sales-income tax swap plan that goes before voters Nov. 5.
I hate to say it, but, as a resident of North Louisiana, the folks south of Alexandria will not vote for anyone whose last name does not end with "-rieu" or "-reaux," UNLESS he/she is a Democrat with solid cajun credentials (a la Edwin "The only way I can lose this election is to be caught with a dead girl or live boy" Edwards).
If the RNC is hanging its hat on this election, things don't look good for November.
1) The GOP ain't hanging its hat on this election.
2) Landrieu's last name helped her pull a whopping 50.2% of the vote last election. Whoopee.
When it came to re-election, 41 percent said Landrieu deserves re-election and 49 percent said someone else should be given a chance.
I also didn't realize Landrieu was now struggling to stay above 50% when matched against any of the three GOP candidates. Things are looking up. It should be noted, however, that VCR is a GOP polling firm.
Glad to hear it, cause it ain't gonna happen.
2) Landrieu's last name helped her pull a whopping 50.2% of the vote last election. Whoopee.
That is with virtually all of North Louisiana voting for Woody Jenkins. The folks south of Alexandria voted for Landrieu. They will this time, as well.
If this election somehow does advance to a runoff (hardly a certainty unless another Rat gets in the race), don't for a minute think that Massive Democratic Vote Fraud © will not once again rear its head.
DWG
Of course not. Just like Forrester is not going to win in NJ, Ehrlich is not going to win in MD, Simon is not going to win in CA, Monteith is not going to win in Condit's district... Blah, blah, blah.
Pssssttt. You want to impress somebody? Try going betting against the favorites, not on them. Otherwise your pessimism is simply a waste of time. You don't have any more of a clue as to what will occur this November than I do.
Maybe I am jaded by living here so long and seeing the same thing happen every election.
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