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The primary purpose of having a defense is deterrence. If deterrence fails, regardless of whether we ultimately prevail, we will have lost. We will have lost millions of American lives (including you, or someone you care about). We will have lost our security. We will have sacrificed rights that will make the traditional concept of "freedom" forever different.

The issue is not whether the U.S. can "win" a war against China, or more specifically, a Chinese led Axis, but whether we can convincingly deter such a war. The evidence is not good. The Chinese believe they can succeed in a war against the U.S., and that they could sustain the casualties such a war would entail.

If L.A. or N.Y. disappears tomorrow in a nuclear holocaust from a terrorist nuke, or a biological epidemic sweeps through the West, it will be months or years before the U.S. identifies the culprit. The Chinese, meanwhile, will move decisively to capitalize on the resulting vacuum in U.S. power, while we try to grapple with disaster, a collapsing economy, political unrest, and a dozen military situations around the world.

The threat has never been more real. I hope Bush's crew has a better handle on this behind the scenes, than is evident in public.