I was given a glimmer of hope recently though by a fascinating individual. Jamestown, Heaven's Gate, YEC's etc. (yes, I lump YEC's in with rest because the conviction involves delusion) will continue to happen because individuals can be easily preyed upon. The difficulties in the Middle East however, are the result of a traditional culture being forced into modern society. Eventually, the transition will be accomplished, but you are quite right, not without a lot of violence and bloodshed.