This may be a bit of police deception -- telling the media that the younger sister waited two hours before informing her parents -- as instructed by the abductor, who is likely following media reports closely. The perp probably thought the younger sister could not recognize him and would not endanger his escape -- or she would have been killed on the spot. The likelihood that Elizabeth was alive three hours after the abduction is about 3 percent. The chief's press conference Tuesday was an effort to make the perp bolt and run so they can take the mystery out of this chase. Almost no chance that this is a stranger-on-stranger abduction -- though that was the case with Polly Klass. That is very unusual.(Stranger-on-stranger abductions are those by people who have had no previous contact with the victim -- such as in the Klass case.) Stranger-on-stranger abductions are invariably committed by "disorganized" personalities, usually under the influence of drugs or alcohol, or both. That doesn't appear to be the case in this instance. Greatest probability: It's someone in the family or in its close circle of friends and relatives. In that case, the perp probably has not been arrested previously for assaulting a child. Second: It's someone in the neighborhood -- either a neighbor or someone else with justifiable reason to be in the neighborhood, such as construction, repair or utilities people. In that case, the perp has a record and has served time for assaulting (and/or killing) a child. If any of those men in the construction crew carrying out renovations on the Smart home has a record, he's in big trouble. The police probably already know about it and were attempting in the media conference to scare him enough to break and run or, it is to be hoped, enough to release Elizabeth if she is still alive.
Does this statistic apply only to stranger abductions, or does it hold across the board? It seems to me that if the perp knows the victim, the likelihood of murder would be decreased.