The most disconcerting issue is the question of Paki control over their own nukes. There are multiple reports on loose management of Paki nukes.
In the event of war, some Paki field commander, fearing the worst or about to be over-run, resorts to tactical nukes. Paki nuke protocols are reportedly
very bad. One report claimed Musharraf has no control, doesn't know the location of
Paki nukes. If they're in the field as
reported, even if under "loyal" commanders, their security is significantly at
risk. India responds in kind, heavily. Total missle flight time: 3-5 minutes. The World's Shortest and Deadliest War.
The sources quoted above are not all considered highly reliable, but some (U.S.) seem to be reasonably reliable. And they do paint a consistent picture. Does Musharraf have control? One hopes so, but given the level of sophistication in that part of the world, it is easy to imagine that fail-safe and C&C procedures are weak, especially with tactical nukes. I find it difficult to imagine that Pakistan has multiple, secure, nuclear-storage facilities, for example. Certainly the jihadis would love to get their hands on a nuke. And the religious, political, and personal ambitions of the key Paki players makes it an interesting brew.
Are there any wild-eyed
fanatics beyond ISI control out there? Probably. They are starting to turn
against Mush. If the jihadis, or even key segments of the Paki military, spin
out of control, all bets are off.