[goody2shooz]

Not exactly. Gathering intelligence is like collecting little pieces to a puzzle that eventually make up a picture. It is only confirmed when you have direct evidence, such as a terrorist standing at the east end of the LAX runways with a missile launcher perched on his/her shoulder.

A direct threat is what Osama bin Laden liked to make in his infamous videos. I guess you could call that confirmed.

[ImaGraftedBranch]

OK. So....when are they going to come out and say that TWA800 was definitely shot down like we all know it was. 13,500 feet is in range.

[TomGuy]

The most prominent assumption is that the missles, if in the US, would be related to airplanes/airports. However, we can't necessarily assume that. Consider:

Boxcutters are to airplanes as surface-to-air missles are to ?????.

They could be intended for a totally non-aircraft related purpose.

[Freedom2specul8]

Not exactly. Gathering intelligence is like collecting little pieces to a puzzle that eventually make up a picture. It is only confirmed when you have direct evidence, such as a terrorist standing at the east end of the LAX runways with a missile launcher perched on his/her shoulder.

A direct threat is what Osama bin Laden liked to make in his infamous videos. I guess you could call that confirmed.

Ok, now that makes sense. It still seems a bit confusing though. Intelligence could be "wrong", while a direct threat could be too..so I guess in a way, both could be a 50-50 chance of being real. What say ye?