Analyzing The Democrat Presidential Candidates, Part I

The 2004 election seems far away, and yet before you know it we'll be in the voting booth looking at the ballot and thinking only one thought; "How could those people in south Florida screw this up?" Unless of course you live in a town like I do that still uses the booth where the curtain shuts behind you and then to vote you have to pull so many levers that you feel like Frank Morgan operating The Wizard. Despite what kind of voting machine you use, whether it's punching chads, pulling levers, or checking boxes, in November of 2004 we'll all have the same set of choices to pick from.

Bush is a shoo-in on the Republican side. The cries for investigations into what he "knew" will not stick enough to prompt the Republicans to go to the bullpen. His approval ratings will remain relatively high and fewer and fewer people will think he's "dumb." A waiter at the restaurant where I was having lunch the other day said that Bush was "stupid." Bush is in the White House leading the free world and a guy dishing out overcooked fajitas and complaining about how hard it is to find parts for his '81 Gran Torino thinks he's stupid? Good enough for me.

The suspense this year is not on the Republican side, but on the side of the Democrats. I won't dabble in all the smaller parties that don't have a chance. And no, they don't have a chance. The Libertarians, U.S. Taxpayers, Green Party, et al, should think about infiltrating one of the major heavily financed parties and then taking it over. Those guys are sitting on a runway at LAX refusing to get on a 747 because they're convinced they can build their own out of some two-by-fours, glue, mason blocks and the motor from a weedwacker. One of the bigger pieces of news to come out of these smaller political factions is that perpetual Constitution Party (formerly US Taxpayer Party) candidate Howard Phillips and Burger King have apparently endorsed each other.

Here's a short list of Democrat hopefuls and their chances on a scale of one to ten.

Hillary Clinton — The former First Lady with eyes that warm and welcome you like a load of refrigerated ball bearings dropped down your shorts is rumored to want the nomination, and she does want it. How do we know? She has said that she doesn't. In the end Hillary will decide that 2004 isn't her year after reading Bush's high approval ratings along with constant public reminders of her idiotic attempts at nationalizing health care. Her inability to pry her husband's face out of the chest of Denise Rich will also play a major role in her lack of success. Not this time, Hillary. I'll give her a five.

Tom Daschle — Senate Majority leader and weasel extraordinaire, Daschle, is positioning himself for a run at the White House. Daschle utters so many untruths that I'd swear he's short-selling soul stock on hell's trading floor. He may take a shot at the nomination, but when it comes down to it he'll find out that Americans embrace his soft-spoken condescension about as much as they liked "Cop Rock." I saw him on Meet the Press the other day and I haven't felt so talked down to since I met Shaq. Daschle's wife, who's a lobbyist for the aviation industry, will be a big drag on his chances come primary time. Funny how so many members of congress seem to just happen to meet their spouses on the corner of Appearance and Impropriety. It must be a hot pickup spot. Despite having a few negatives, never underestimate Daschle's ability to worm out of a jam. He's got a good shot. Give him a solid seven.

Al Gore — Unless Al drops a few pounds by the time a potential nomination rolls around his most likely choice as running mate will be his own butt. I think Gore's got as much of a chance of getting his party's nomination as Joe Hazelwood does of getting a job driving a Citgo truck, but stranger things have happened. Al's problem this time around is that his Don King style campaign managers are now off annoying the private sector instead of the public sector, which is safer for all of us. Greasy campaign managers aren't a rarity though, and there are plenty of them loaded into the inside the beltway Pez dispenser for Gore to hook up with. A good one might get him as far as the New Hampshire primary, but that's about it. Spotting a productive follicle on William Daley's head is easier than envisioning Gore being allowed the nomination again. Sorry Al, not this time. One.

Robert Reich — A current candidate for Massachusetts Governor, Reich will run for anything in which he feels any other candidate is not putting forth a liberal agenda. Best known as former Labor Secretary in Clinton's cabinet, a Harvard professor, and as the man who declared the Wicked Witch of the North "not only merely dead, she's really most sincerely dead," may be small in physical stature, but that doesn't stop him from coming up with ideas to match. His positive point is that no matter how hard he tries; he'll never be the biggest political dirtbag in Massachusetts. His odds of running and of being nominated are about the same as they are of winning this year's NBA slam-dunk competition, but anything's possible. On a scale of one to ten I'll generously give him a point per foot. Three.

Jesse Jackson — Should the Reverend ever become president, it's my opinion that he would be the closest thing to George Washington that this country has ever had in the White House. Washington may have been the father of our country, but Jackson is the father of at least a third of it, which is still pretty impressive. The Reverend and former spiritual guide to Bill Clinton (which is like hiring Liz Taylor to help break your valium habit) is constantly flirting with making another run at the presidency. Threats by Jackson to boycott the Dems convention will get him in the door, but not even close to the nomination. Conventional wisdom has him quitting even before primary season after he gets sick of people asking him to autograph copies of Shakedown. Jackson gets a two.

"you'll see the third parties really get their own slates out..i.e.Nader....and this will hurt the dems in the 2004 congressional races.."

Are you sure? I'd like to see a study of how the Green candidacy may have impacted the Congressional races in 2000.

My suspicion is that Nader may mobilize a turnout which would not have otherwise been moved to vote. And, after they get thru voting for Ralphie, which lever are they more likely to pull for Senator or Representative?

In sum, Nader will surely (and deservedly) help destroy the Democrat candidate for President. But he may well help the 'Rats down ballot.

You're right on Algore. I don't think he'll run, or if he does, will drop out by New Hampshire.

I think you're wrong on Hillary!. The Hillary! health care stuff is ancient news and won't have legs. Likewise, Denise Rich will be ancient news and won't have any impact. She's already started to run, witness the criticism this week about how she is getting too conservative. Of all the individuals eligible to be President, only one has more direct White House experience (Bush the elder, who of course will never run again), and no one has more Oval Office experience. She's a vicious, dirty campaigner and will stop at nothing to get elected. She's a remarkable fund raiser. The most important point though, is that we have had this situation before. A President Bush with high approval ratings mid-term, but facing a Clinton in the election and losing. I think DemocRATs will find this compelling.

I think she will decide to run if only to position herself as front runner for 2008. However, if she is nominated I think her chances are excellent of winning it all. The country IMO is ready for a female President. President Bush is alienating some of his base. He did not win by much in 2000 and if he is complacent in running against Hillary! he will lose. Just like his father in '92.

I think you overestimate Daschle's chances, but I haven't watched American TV in years, so I don't have much feel for how he is coming across as Majority Leader.

Since Chaney has little chance of succeeding Bush as President in 2008 due to health reasons, the person to watch will be Bush's challenger. There's got to be a wise Republican who will do what Ronald Reagan did in 1976. Run a firm campaign against a sitting President, take defeat in the primaries with grace and style, then kick butt four years later.

Please ping me when you post part II.

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