1. The Primary is in our favor. The dems have their own primary. Since split ticket primaries are illegal in Michigan, the dems from Benton Harbor and the city of Kalamazoo have to skip the governor race if they want to vote for Upton. Ain't gonna happen. This gives us a chance.
2. Shugars comes from the most populous county in the district. Kalmazoo County. The congressional seat is more conservative than his state senate district(about 50/50 dem gop). They know him and like him. Allegan county is new to the district and is the 2nd most GOP county in the state %wise. Lots of Dutch Calvinists out in that area. The only problem he has is name recognition, and that can be taken care of since he is experienced, has a record, and already is known in K-zoo.
3. MCRGO, NRA, Right to Life. RTL is going to back Shugars. As for MCRGO, we reward our friends(and Shugars has a 100% pro-2a record). MCRGO and NRA are joined at the hip in Michigan. We'll do our part here. Let's see here....a couple of townhall meetings this summer in Kalamazoo and one in Berrien County(Upton's home) sound nice. An NRA mailing, and MCRGO newsletter comparing the gun records this late July and early August. That can get the message out to our guys. MCRGO's annual meeting is June 1st, and we are expecting 1300 people there. There won't be too many friends of Upton there. The meeting is in Lansing, but people from all across the state will be there.
4. Money (and the media) is our only main weakness. Upton knows he's in a fight, and wants to stop this from happening. He knows that NRA, MCRGO, and RTL are going to give him a fight. That's why I posted this and why I sent my check in.
I like our chances. When the gun groups and pro-lifers go after someone in a GOP primary, it makes the opponent's race a nightmare. I think if Club for Growth and other conservative groups jump in here, than the race is ours. The gun issue is still hot in Michigan. The pro-life issue is always big. I don't know all Upton's tax votes, but maybe he can get bit there too.
This race is VERY winnable.