Excellent excellent point. A political veteran like Karl Rove would know this and act accordingly. So the only assumption to make would be that they think they can shore up enough support in the blue zones to make up the difference in '04. GWB seems to be governing further from the left - domestically speaking - than Clinton did, so maybe they actually believe this will work.
The problem is that it won't work. What blue states do they think that they'll swing? And at the cost of how many red states? Bush got clobbered in those blue states. He'll have to tour the country in a Mao suit to win them over.
This is political idiocy at its finest. I've been Bush bashing on this thread and others for a reason. This is a preview of what we'll hear out of the Democrats if he signs that bill. They will be the ones saying he broke his promise. They'll do to him what they did to Bush41. "Read my lips" will be their mantra.
Bush promised to veto this bill. He had better follow through with that promise. If he doesn't, the Dems will use it to drive a wedge between him and the base. He'll lose red states faster than he can pick up blue ones. The only hope he has of picking up any blue states is to show the kind of backbone his father couldn't. People will respect that, even if they don't agree with him on the particular issue.