[Common Tator]

Caldwell apparently hasn't seen the polls. Simon is ahead in one poll already.

California has a failed Democratic Governor in a liberal state. And the best the Republican can do with a clean slate is a 2 point lead. That is disaster city with a capitol D.

The lowest Davis will be is today. He has endured a year and more of bad publicity. He had no one to run against. That is always the low point. Look at all the candidates that were in troble. Harry Truman in 48 was down 30 points to Dewey. Ford was down 20 points to Carter in 1976 and broght it to within 3 points. Humphry was down 30 points at the start of the 1968 campaign and brought it to within 5. Bush had 20 point lead on Gore at this point in 2000 and we know what happened then.

The lowest an in office politician goes is when it is bad him against nobody. Now it will be bad him against Simple Simon. That is no contest. Unless Davis really screwes up this is a Davis blow out.

Davis starts this race with a 2 point Simon lead. That has to look like heaven to Davis. He will attack and drive Simon's negatives up. Simon can attack all he wants and Davis's negatives will not go any higher.

Simon will fall behind by 15 to 20 points by this fall's election. Bush and the national republicans knew that.. so did Davis.

Simon is either very stupid or his intention all along was to re-elect Gray Davis. Davis just spent 10 million dollars to get Simon the Nomination. That is a master stroke. Simon is the perfect foil to re-elect Gray Davis.

[TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig]

Simon can attack all he wants and Davis's negatives will not go any higher.

never say never. Simon hasn't even started running ads against Davis.

[vbmoneyspender]

By your reasoning, Riordan couldn't get elected either because he was only a few points ahead of Davis in the most recent polls that were conducted based on a two-way race between Riordan and Davis.

[Brett66]

Davis better hope the lights stay on in CA. this summer.

[capitan_refugio]

Maybe so, but it is a telling admission when the very first comment Gray Davis makes the day after the election is, "Education is my passion." He did not mention the economy. He did not mention unemployment. He did not mention energy. He didn't even mention the environment.

If Gray Davis is reduced to running on his education record, he will lose. So Davis will do his best to make the issue Bill Simon. Davis can not win when the focus is on him and his failed term as governor. It is going to be a very ugly next eight months.

[The Vast Right Wing]

You obviously don't live in california. 20% of the Democratic voters did NOT vote for Davis, he only got 80% of his OWN primary votes against a bunch of no names. Simon has a chance if he can make the election a referendum on Governor Dufus's tenure.

[foghornleghorn]

I would argue that this analysis is pure poppycock. Davis's ads would have helped Riordan with conservatives, painting him as pro life. The fact is, that Riordan came across as someone who had no core values. He began to waffle on every major issue important to pubs. The pubs didn't want "Davis lite". Had Riordan won he would have lost to Davis as the Republican base stayed home. At least now there is a choice. Let's see if blind ideology trumps palpable incompetence for the Kalifornia voters. Or will they revert to common sense and vote for Simon?

[ambrose]

Bush had 20 point lead on Gore at this point in 2000 and we know what happened then

Oh really? March of 2000? Nope, I don't think so...

[EternalVigilance]

Your faulty analysis is only exceeded in its hopelessness by the article that leads off this thread.

If Republicans are guaranteed a loss by choosing men and women who believe in the basic principles of life and liberty; in the ideals of conservatism and the Republican platform; than there is no hope for the Republic or our Party anyhow.

I'm glad that a large majority; the mainstream; of California Republicans agree with me, and not with you.

[Ol' Sparky]

If anyone can be defined as having a loser's menatlity, you're the man. Davis is a weak candidate and can easily be beaten is Simon runs the right campaign. The same comments you've made about Simon were made about Reagan decades ago.

[Ol' Sparky]

If Simon's people have any brains at all, the bad publicity -- via campaign ads -- is just beginning for Davis. He gets bad publicity because he is a bad governor. Reagan would beat Davis today in a landslide. Simon may not be Reagan, but the right campaign easily beats Davis.

And, Simon has had a lot of bad publicity in the state in the last month or so. Riordan had attacked him as a right-wing nut and he's still ahead in the polls.