Posted on 12/05/2025 12:01:50 PM PST by CFW
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We are quickly collapsing into a situation in which all of a state’s congresscritters will be elected at large, with people voting for a party slate.
Forget about your representative having any tie whatsoever to your community. They will mostly be party apparatchiks anointed by a state central committee.
Maryland is so gerrymandered that Montgomery County voters, on the outskirts of DC, are outvoting Alleghany County, which is the westernmost tip of the panhandle and is west of Pittsburgh.
The Indiana GOP is gambling that enough rural and small town voters can outvote Indianapolis, Gary, East Chicago, Bloomington, Evansville, and a couple of other blue stains on a mostly red map.
While the California dems are sure LA and San Francisco can outvote everyone who lives outside the coastal blob.
As goes the presidential and gubernatorial race goes the entire congressional delegation.
Splitting up Marion County and merging Lake into more Republican counties
STEP BY STEP
I am in the First District, which has been held by Democrats for almost a hundred years. I was wondering how they would redraw that district to flip it. This map ought to do the job.
So much for that a-hole who clapped back at Trump.
He is a state senator where the red dem margin is 40 to 10.
I don’t think he will be much of a factor.
The article is pretty useless without a map.
Does anyone in their right mind think for EVEN one second—that the democrats wouldn’t do it if the roles were reversed?
They already have in every state where they could.
“The article is pretty useless without a map.”
The EXISTING districts are (according to Charlie Cook, whose approach to this stuff is questionable but it’s the “gold standard”):
CD-1: D+4
CD-2: R+13
CD-3: R+16
CD-4: R+15
CD-5: R+8
CD-6: R+16
CD-7: D+21
CD-8: R+18
CD-9: R+15
All super-safe except for CD-1 which is ALREADY more like D+1 than D+4. CD-5 is a little weak because it lies just north of Marion County, and in that area the sewage flows north from the big city, if you know what I mean.
Here are the NEW proposed district ratings, based on the data which is currently available:
CD-1: R+1
CD-2: R+4
CD-3: R+9
CD-4: R+7
CD-5: R+7
CD-6: R+8
CD-7: R+7
CD-8: R+8
CD-9: R+8
CD-1 is a tossup and not some automatic guaranteed pickup despite all the giddiness. CD-2 could easily be lost in a bad year (like, maybe, 2026). The others are safe except in a truly “blue” wave.
Remember that (as defined by Cook), “R+8” DOES NOT MEAN “the Republican should win by 8 points”. It DOES mean “the Republican should win by SIXTEEN points”.
For those who don’t understand the math:
U.S. House District Analysis — What Are “PVIs”?: https://www.rightdatausa.com/shownews?n=347
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