Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: CFW

There is a thing called “response bias” pollsters know about.

When one side does well or has something good/galvanizing happen, their supporters are eager to pick up the phone, respond to texts, etc. When its the reverse they tend to not pick up the phone. Note that their vote has never changed - just their willingness to talk to pollsters.

In reality national polls do not swing 10 points rapidly. That simply never happens. There are ways to control for response bias....for example you could have a large sample of people and sample the same group over time. Another way is to carefully weight for demographics/education/income and weight people by their demographic and income information accordingly.

That is not what they’ve been doing lately. They’ve been grossly over representing Democrats as a percentage of those they polled. So yeah Heels Up leads.....if the electorate were 6-7% more Democrat than it actually is. In the real world, no freaking way is the electorate going to look like that. These are intentionally dishonest push polls meant to try to give Heels Up Harris a boost. Everybody knows it.


7 posted on 08/21/2024 12:46:07 AM PDT by FLT-bird
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies ]


To: FLT-bird

They are trying to have their polls be compatible with anticipated cheating.


13 posted on 08/21/2024 1:30:30 AM PDT by SauronOfMordor (Either you will rule. Or you will be ruled. There is no other choice.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies ]

To: FLT-bird
So yeah Heels Up leads.....if the electorate were 6-7% more Democrat than it actually is. In the real world, no freaking way is the electorate going to look like that. These are intentionally dishonest push polls meant to try to give Heels Up Harris a boost. Everybody knows it.

Democrats understand the 'bandwagon' effect.

46 posted on 08/21/2024 6:19:44 AM PDT by GOPJ (Kamala kisses up and punches down - cgbg * Walz put tampon dispensers in boys bathrooms...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson