[Political Junkie Too]

Does "the same thing" mean the title or my first post?

Both.

The article discusses the observed trend that when the polls ask both the Trump-Harris question AND the full field question, President Trump's result goes down more than Harris' on the full-field result.

You used the phrase "RFK's belief that he would get more Trump voters than Kamala voters." I'm showing actual polling data that suggests that it is more than a "belief," it is an observable trend from multiple polls over several weeks.

Here is the most recent post of mine from 8/4/24 analyzing 28 polls from 7/25 to 8/4 showing the impact of Kennedy on the polling results. I'm sure I can add several more polls to that list from the last 10 days.

For grins, here is the first post of mine from 7/31/24 with a much smaller number of polls that began to show the trend. I reposted the 7/31/24 analysis to another thread later that day. Ironically, you were the second-to-last poster to that thread. 😉

-PJ

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

Will all due respect, I am still not convinced we will have sane polling until some time in September, and not the first week. If you can "read between the lines" that's great. You may be right, but for me, still too much chaos.

Remember, the early polls showing Kasich winning in 2016 turned out to be worthless because voters thought of him as a "generic republican." I.e. Kamala is still a "generic Dem" and they are trying to hide her as long as possible.

And I am still not sure how many competitive states' ballots will keep RFK.