Ukraine ping
Seruzawa: [It wouldn’t be surprising to see a mercenary go completely bonkers. You have to be mostly bonkers to be one in the first place]
The thing about this coup attempt is that it’s far more risky than the bloodless kind you get from securing buy-ins in exchange for promises of promotion, which is how Brezhnev toppled Khrushchev. Yeltsin’s coup against Gorby was based on schmoozing. He got a couple of generals to go along, and both Gorby and the CCCP were history.
Prigozhin’s is force-on-force. No one knows if he has been able to get a few channels open to Putin’s commanders. But Prigozhin’s best bet is to have an insider, preferably a low-ranker with no resources behind him, plunge the dagger in, by perhaps taking Putin hostage.
However, to personally assume power, like Caesar, Prigozhin may need to be the man who routed the incumbent. Unlike Caesar*, who was an aristocrat and a consul alongside Pompey, Prigozhin wasn’t exactly part of the any pre-revolt succession scenario. So his legitimacy will have to be established the old-fashioned way, with a test of arms.
* Despite his noble lineage, Caesar encountered serious resistance because his efforts were both revolutionary and retrograde. He had overstepped his authority by not relinquishing his troops. His victory would mean, in essence, a return to monarchy. And that is exactly what happened. His destruction of the Optimates who opposed him was a precursor to the end of the Roman Republic and beginning of the Roman Empire.
“They’re not mercenaries. Wagner is just a plausibly-deniable arm of the Russian armed forces. They’re more highly-selected and more elite than the regular Russian army. They get better quality because they’re better-paid, better-trained and better-led.”
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Correct. Everybody else calling the Wagner group “mercenaries“ is dead wrong. This is a dispute within the Russian government, mainly because the entirety of the Russian armed forces have been unable to successfully defeat a nation one fifth of its size, led by a comedian , with the strategic initiative, in short order. Putin is viewed as being weak and ripe for overthrow, particularly by more hardline people within the government. I am frankly surprised that nothing of this sort occurred earlier, though perhaps Prigozhin couldn’t make his move until he had a demonstrated success under his belt.
Interesting that none of the usual pro-Putin propaganda posters are at work tonight. I wonder why?