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The Coming War Over Taiwan
WSJ ^ | 8.4.22 | Hal Brands and Michael Beckley

Posted on 08/04/2022 3:33:10 PM PDT by Dr. Marten

The U.S. is running out of time to prevent a cataclysmic war in the Western Pacific. While the world has been focused on Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine, Xi Jinping appears to be preparing for an even more consequential onslaught against Taiwan. Mr. Xi’s China is fueled by a dangerous mix of strength and weakness: Faced with profound economic, demographic and strategic problems, it will be tempted to use its burgeoning military power to transform the existing order while it still has the opportunity.

This peaking-power syndrome—the tendency for rising states to become more aggressive as they become more fearful of impending decline—has caused some of the bloodiest wars in history. Unless the U.S. and its allies act quickly, it could trigger a conflict that would make the war in Ukraine look minor by comparison.

(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: asia; china; taiwan; taiwanchina; taiwanwar; war
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To: Fai Mao

How can you say we “won” in Indochina when you had the Killing Fields in Cambodia?


81 posted on 08/04/2022 4:42:56 PM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: PGR88

Wow. That’s insane.


82 posted on 08/04/2022 4:47:07 PM PDT by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: bigbob

Wonder what the limit would be on them?


83 posted on 08/04/2022 4:53:47 PM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer” )
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To: dfwgator

That happened after the US left It was a direct result of the peace deal that did not include a N Vietnamese surrender. And yes, if we’d have kept the pressure up another 6 months they’d have surrendered.


84 posted on 08/04/2022 4:55:36 PM PDT by Fai Mao
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To: ought-six

The US is very weak right now.

Flip the script, and maybe the US is the one trying desperately to start a war. All mainland China has to do is wait until the third week of November to strike, and it won’t matter.


85 posted on 08/04/2022 4:56:34 PM PDT by redgolum (If this is civilization, I will be the barbarian. )
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To: redgolum

“Flip the script, and maybe the US is the one trying desperately to start a war. All mainland China has to do is wait until the third week of November to strike, and it won’t matter.”

Think about it: If we wanted to start a war there is a hell of a lot of low-hanging fruit out there we could choose to engage. And China wouldn’t be one of them.


86 posted on 08/04/2022 5:01:35 PM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: griswold3

Why would I want to prove you wrong? You are proving my point.


87 posted on 08/04/2022 5:02:57 PM PDT by richardtavor ( )
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To: Rurudyne; ought-six

Nixon was shrewd.

Some of his successors misplayed things to allow China’s astonishing economic growth with no requirement that they liberalize (in the classic 19th century meaning).

Clinton was the worst granting Most Favored Nation status while accepting cash on the side. Similarly, Obama. W did not do much to rein them in, either.

Keeping China and Russia apart has been a successful foreign policy for fifty years and, as George Keenan noted, little good will come of provoking them to align.


88 posted on 08/04/2022 5:03:18 PM PDT by dodger
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To: DoughtyOne

Again?

Look, If no one “went to China” the later sell outs would not have happened, at least not till after someone else opened the door.

Since Clinton and pthers were being in part bankrolled by the ChiComs no one going to China in the 70s may have even slowed their rise to power.

We do not know if someone else would have gone to China had Nixon not, but in fact of history Nixon did.

And he should not have. He saved the ChiComs.

Because he did the later actions by bad actors absolutely built on what he did.


89 posted on 08/04/2022 5:04:31 PM PDT by Rurudyne (Standup Philosopher)
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To: Dr. Marten

Soon it will be like Quemoy and Matsu in 1957,the shelling by the Chicoms when Eisenhower visited Taiwan.

I still remember it as that was when we got our first TV. First news stories were...Segregation riots in Little Rock Ar, Eisenhower’s visit to Taiwan, and the Hungarian Uprising against the USSR.


90 posted on 08/04/2022 5:08:45 PM PDT by Ruy Dias de Bivar (“Both oligarch and tyrant mistrust the people, and therefore deprive them of their arms.” – Aristotl)
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To: Ruy Dias de Bivar

History may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme!


91 posted on 08/04/2022 5:10:05 PM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: Dr. Marten

The US is a paper tiger and China knows it.

No one is afraid of the Biden administration


92 posted on 08/04/2022 5:12:54 PM PDT by wny
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To: Dr. Marten

Wake me up when the ChiComs can make their own jet and rocket engines without any parts from Russia.


93 posted on 08/04/2022 5:16:40 PM PDT by SecondAmendment (This just proves my latest theory ... LEFTISTS RUIN EVERYTHING !!!)
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To: ought-six

Yes, I know. Both wanted, among other things, the useful idiots in the West to serve them in particular. But like Stalin killing so many commies the rivalry was a good thing ... for us.

The USSR was doomed. The PRC would have been doomed too ... but by trying to be cleaver Nixon helped them survive.

Now they’ve helped the useful idiots in the West to fester and we are doomed.


94 posted on 08/04/2022 5:16:46 PM PDT by Rurudyne (Standup Philosopher)
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To: SecondAmendment

It has to be coming soon, all their youngsters go to the very best US tech schools.


95 posted on 08/04/2022 5:21:20 PM PDT by nascarnation (Let's Go Brandon!)
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To: wny

About 60 years ago China called the US a paper tiger.

The Russians reminded them that the paper tiger has nuclear teeth.


96 posted on 08/04/2022 5:23:04 PM PDT by Ruy Dias de Bivar (“Both oligarch and tyrant mistrust the people, and therefore deprive them of their arms.” – Aristotl)
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To: nascarnation

Japanese mfg stuff was a joke in the late 40s/early 50s then Ed Deming went over there and taught them his system, and they became the top line in mass produced products.

It sure was. “Made in Japan” was a byword for cheap crap. We used to sneer that when things broke.


97 posted on 08/04/2022 5:24:36 PM PDT by rxh4n1
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To: bigbob

I believe this is actually the case.


98 posted on 08/04/2022 5:30:44 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: SisterK

there is a lot of money to be made in war.

It’s called the military industrial complex and our woke generals are heavily invested in it.


99 posted on 08/04/2022 5:32:16 PM PDT by lucky american (Progressives are attacking our rights and y'all will sit there and take it.)
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To: ought-six

Yup. Military hands were tied.


100 posted on 08/04/2022 5:35:44 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; not averse to Going Bronson.)
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