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The Coming War Over Taiwan
WSJ ^ | 8.4.22 | Hal Brands and Michael Beckley

Posted on 08/04/2022 3:33:10 PM PDT by Dr. Marten

The U.S. is running out of time to prevent a cataclysmic war in the Western Pacific. While the world has been focused on Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine, Xi Jinping appears to be preparing for an even more consequential onslaught against Taiwan. Mr. Xi’s China is fueled by a dangerous mix of strength and weakness: Faced with profound economic, demographic and strategic problems, it will be tempted to use its burgeoning military power to transform the existing order while it still has the opportunity.

This peaking-power syndrome—the tendency for rising states to become more aggressive as they become more fearful of impending decline—has caused some of the bloodiest wars in history. Unless the U.S. and its allies act quickly, it could trigger a conflict that would make the war in Ukraine look minor by comparison.

(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: asia; china; taiwan; taiwanchina; taiwanwar; war
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1 posted on 08/04/2022 3:33:10 PM PDT by Dr. Marten
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To: Dr. Marten

Pelosi went there to provide the Chinese a pretext to invade. Its hand waving.


2 posted on 08/04/2022 3:35:24 PM PDT by Bayard
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To: Bayard

You might be right. I have always believed that many countries view war as not only inevitable, but profitable. (Incuding our on War Hawks). Eisenhower warned against it.


3 posted on 08/04/2022 3:37:52 PM PDT by richardtavor ( )
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To: Dr. Marten

Gosh.

I wonder what would happen to China if there was a war?

I guess the Chinese would all sit around eating crumpets and drinking Mai Tais.

Until they started dying.


4 posted on 08/04/2022 3:40:15 PM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer” )
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To: Dr. Marten

Nixon should npt have gone to China.

Clinton should not have extended MFN status to China.

Fauci and company should not have been working with ChiCom biowar labs.

The highlights from Hamlet list.


5 posted on 08/04/2022 3:40:50 PM PDT by Rurudyne (Standup Philosopher)
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To: Dr. Marten

later


6 posted on 08/04/2022 3:41:21 PM PDT by libertylover (Our biggest problem, BY FAR, is that almost all of big media is agenda-driven, not-truth driven.)
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To: Dr. Marten

I just read the thread intro, not the whole article.

However, the intro pretty much said China is looking to start something, as that is what internally weak countries with powerful armies do when they fear their internal power is falling; then it goes on to say that the US must not do anything to start such a war.

Well, if China is in the position described, it’s going to war regardless of anything anyone else does; so, putting the onus of averting war on the US is basically blaming the US when war does start.


7 posted on 08/04/2022 3:42:51 PM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: richardtavor

there is a lot of money to be made in war


8 posted on 08/04/2022 3:43:05 PM PDT by SisterK (the final variant is communism)
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To: Dr. Marten

Mr. Xi’s China is fueled by a dangerous mix of strength and American weakness.


9 posted on 08/04/2022 3:43:12 PM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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Democrat crony coffers must be getting low for them to be drumming up so many wars. I am sure funding things like Haliburton was the price for Lez Cheneys cooperation


10 posted on 08/04/2022 3:47:07 PM PDT by dsrtsage ( Complexity is just simple lacking imagination)
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To: Dr. Marten

Our record so far in the Pacific is:

- overwhelming win, sneak attack on Manila Bay, Philippines, Spanish American war (although it took some time to put down the Moro insurrection),

- bloody win, Japan,

- draw, Korea, and

- loss, Vietnam.


11 posted on 08/04/2022 3:47:19 PM PDT by FarCenter
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To: Rurudyne

I can’t disagree with you.

However, Nixon going to China was an attempt to play China off Russia (remember, he went to China in February, 1972, and followed that up with a trip to Russia in May, 1972). At the time, it made sense.


12 posted on 08/04/2022 3:47:56 PM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: ought-six

What happens with two internally weak countries with powerful armies?


13 posted on 08/04/2022 3:50:05 PM PDT by RightOnTheBorder
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To: Dr. Marten
The world would be much better off if the Chines just grabbed Pelosi and kept her in China rather than start a new big war.
14 posted on 08/04/2022 3:50:40 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: ought-six

Two drowning men clinging to each other will drown faster than one.

Nixon was trying to be cleaver. But what he did was foolish. No matter what he intended he threw them a livesaver. He should have let the ChiComs drown too under the weight of socialism.


15 posted on 08/04/2022 3:50:55 PM PDT by Rurudyne (Standup Philosopher)
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To: blueunicorn6

What if the CCP already has its sleeper operatives in place, and all that is needed is the order to go. Then mai tais all around.


16 posted on 08/04/2022 3:51:04 PM PDT by bigbob (z)
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To: FarCenter

I can’t disagree with your list.

But, we were never defeated militarily in Vietnam. The US military didn’t lose; the US government did. I understand in the world of geopolitics that is a distinction without a difference.


17 posted on 08/04/2022 3:51:07 PM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: ought-six
Well, if China is in the position described, it’s going to war regardless of anything anyone else does; so, putting the onus of averting war on the US is basically blaming the US when war does start.

All the US businesses that have plumped profits by outsourcing to China are getting nervous about losing their access to cheap labor. That's why the WSJ publishes articles like this. They'd sell out the US to China in a New York minute.

18 posted on 08/04/2022 3:52:51 PM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: RightOnTheBorder

“What happens with two internally weak countries with powerful armies?”

Ideally, nothing.

But you ask a very good question. Because it increases the chance of a terrible miscalculation.

We need to prepare to fight such a war, and prepare NOW. But, we have to be careful not to be the instigator. If, hopefully, China does not make the move the whole world expects it to make, then there is no war. We cannot start it; history will be very unkind to us if we do.


19 posted on 08/04/2022 3:56:20 PM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: Dr. Marten

If there is a war, Biden will send Nanc there to negotiate a settlement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMJh20DYE30


20 posted on 08/04/2022 3:56:56 PM PDT by chopperk
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