Posted on 05/20/2022 5:55:19 AM PDT by Kaslin
Is it Donald Trump's Republican Party? You can make the case it is, as partisan Democrats do, from the victories of various candidates endorsed by the former president in Republican primaries. But it's not an airtight case, and Trump's batting average is inflated by the dozens of endorsements he has made of incumbents with no significant primary opposition.
Thus Trump endorsed Gov. Greg Abbott and many other easy winners in Texas's Tuesday primary. But incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton, endorsed by Trump last July, was forced into a runoff by George P. Bush. Paxton leads in runoff polling, but one survey shows his margin narrowing.
In Ohio, Trump disappointed several pro-Trump Senate candidates when he endorsed "Hillbilly Elegy" author and onetime Trump skeptic J.D. Vance on Good Friday, April 15. Vance ended up winning the May 5 primary with 32% to 24% for former state Treasurer Josh Mandel and 23% for state Sen. Matt Dolan.
But was Trump's nod pivotal? Vance jumped from 8% to 15% in previous polling to 23% in a Trafalgar poll conducted between April 13 and April 14, and he had similar numbers in later polls. Primary polling is not an exact science, but the numbers support the conclusion that Trump jumped on the bandwagon of a candidate who had performed well in debates about as well as the conclusion that he swung thousands of voters in Vance's direction.
Trump endorsements had mixed success in the May 10 primaries. In the Nebraska governor race, his candidate Charles Herbster lost to Jim Pillen, a state university regent endorsed by incumbent Gov. Pete Ricketts. But Herbster's personal problems may have been decisive. In the West Virginia race between two incumbent congressmen, Trump endorsee Alex Mooney won a solid victory in a district Trump carried 67% to 31% in 2020.
In Tuesday's North Carolina primary, Trump's endorsement back in June 2021 of Rep. Ted Budd may have been decisive not just in gaining generating support but in winnowing the field. April polling showed Budd, from rural Davie County, pulling well ahead of former Gov. and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory in a party whose primary electorate is increasingly nonmetropolitan, and Budd won 59% to 25%. But controversial Rep. Madison Cawthorn, despite Trump's endorsement, lost to local legislator Chuck Edwards.
Pennsylvania also voted Tuesday, and, as I write, Trump-endorsed TV doctor Mehmet Oz leads former hedge funder David McCormick by just 2,672 votes out of 1.3 million cast. Each is at 31%, not too far ahead of Trump supporter Kathy Barnette's 25%.
If Oz's lead holds up in the full tabulation and likely recount, Trump might claim credit. Certainly, all three candidates (who, oddly in a state with a high percentage of residents born there, all made most of their careers elsewhere) strove to echo his stands on the issues.
Their perhaps opportunistic Trumpishness is in line with results of a recent New York Times focus group of Republican voters, moderated by Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson. Eight out of 10 members raised their hands when asked if they'd support a candidate "who embraces Mr. Trump's agenda." But only 1 in 10 did so when asked about a candidate with "the same style and personality of Mr. Trump."
Similarly, in the May 5-10 NBC News poll, only 34% of Republicans characterized themselves "more of a supporter of Donald Trump," while 58% said they were "more of a supporter of the Republican Party." Earlier NBC polls showed more Republicans identifying with the party rather than the former president starting in April 2021, but the gap has risen from 6 percentage points then to 24 points now.
This is perhaps a natural development. A look back at the last three Republican presidential primaries shows a party moving toward populism on trade, immigration and entitlements, with the party's constituency including more noncollege graduates and nonmetropolitan residents.
Back in 2008, the little-known, lightly financed Mike Huckabee won 22% of the votes in contests until John McCain clinched the nomination on March 4. In 2012, the sweater vest-clad Rick Santorum won 28% of the votes until Mitt Romney clinched the nomination on April 3.
In 2016, Trump faced no single establishment candidate but a field full of rivals afraid to criticize him and bent on undercutting each other. In primaries and caucuses up through April 5, by which time Trump eliminated all but one opponent, he won 36% of the votes -- a steady progression from Huckabee's 22% and Santorum's 28%. So did Trump create MAGA, or did MAGA create Trump?
My conclusion: It's a Trumpish party, but not exactly Trump's party. It's also a party on the brink of a big midterm victory, judging from primary turnout so far. More Republican ballots have been cast than Democratic ones in every primary state so far except Oregon, with Republicans casting 65% and 67% of ballots in solid Republican Ohio and Texas and 53% and 55% in marginal Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Trump will claim credit for the party's victories, but Republicans may not renominate this former president in 2024, just as they declined to renominate Ulysses S. Grant in 1880 and Theodore Roosevelt in 1912.
I call BS.
The polls that are referenced are fake. Trump supporters would tell a pollster to pound sand and refuse to take part in their biased polls. These polling companies NEVER publish how many callers they went through before they could get the numbers of required responses for their poll.
So we're supposed to believe that only a third of republican voters consider themselves Trump supporters compared to nearly two thirds being RNC supporters. What a crock!
This is an article that Democrats/RINOs read as part of their cognitive dissonance that reassures them that their view of the political landscape is the correct one.
Why should MAGA patriots allow the RINO-traitors to control the GOP? The RINOs are the ones who should leave, and they are being shown the door by grass roots primary voters.
No way would I prefer to leave the GOP and let the likes of Lizard Cheney stay in office. It's going to be sweeter than sweet to watch the vote count on the night of her primary. This is what needs to happen to all RINOs, and the primaries this summer are the first chance we have had to start the process of removing them.
This article is an example of the unfortunate consequences of the internet and a plethora of people writing columns. Competition is fierce to get noticed, and writers feel obligated to search out and find an unique angle no one else, they think, has thought about. So writers have to grasp and stretch to find ways to make their point seem inexorable. The stretching is for the mostly honest ones; the liberals just lie.
Show me where this Republic has two political parties. I see nothing at all to support that.
Let me guess, Barone is a Never Trumper . These articles are getting so tiresome.......
Imagine a political universe where these Never Trumpers fought FOR our country, sovereignty, rule of law, electoral integrity, fiscal responsibility, and strong borders as hard as they do against Donald J Trump.
Funny just reread my post and everything I mentioned about the Never Trumpers fighting for, Trump actually DID!
There is absolutely no Sunday talk show pundit, no MSM pundit, no FOX pundit (save somethings Tucker advocates) that holds ANY meaning for me whatsoever anymore.
They’re all just in it for the fame, the notoriety, the money, the DC and NYC leftist galas, parties and get-togethers - EVERY STINKING one of them only concerned about not being condemned by the leftists they hang out with. Barone is just one in a long, long line of them.
Is this actually from townhall.com. Notice the misspelled “townhal.com” on the header.
Which establishment never changed, though some of them may have jumped on the bandwagon a little bit.
Bush League Barone is trying to nudge us back onto the amnesty voting plantation.
I can’t think of the last President who wasn’t a Republican or a Democrat. There are other parties appearing in history, but I think they literally take more time than Trump has left, to come into existence, typically.
Budd was in the single digits before trumps endorsement and Madison beat himself due to being immature. How many ran in Ohio for the GOP nominee?
The race was neck and neck the entire primary... McCormick had taken a slight lead, until the OZ endorsement... then Oz took a slight lead, entire time both floated around 20% in the polls after spending a combined 60 Million bucks...
Then Barnette (someone actually advocating MAGA principles) came along and voters flocked to her, and then the party machine set to work to absolutely destroy her.
And you wind up back with the two absolute turds that the party deemed acceptable.... An inauthentic turd named OZ, an a Bush/Wall Street Republican.
Both are completely off brand to motivate the base and win, and I’ve said this for months now, If either McCormick or Oz are the nominee don’t be surprised if the Dems win this seat in spite of the red wave this fall... the only way I see either one of them winning is if Biden and the economy have damaged the democrat brand so badly that a ham sandwich would win as long as it has and R by its name.
Both are COMPLETELY off Brand for this state. McCormick likely would play better, but not going to motivate and draw... OZ is completely off brand for PA. OZ is trying to carry the MAGA mantle, but he’s not MAGA at all.. and folks aren’t buying it.... When he rallied with Trump folks in the AUdience BOOED him, and yes folks, it did happen.
GOP of PA are SWAMP... this was the first time in ages the voters of PA had a chance to actually do something to force a change and they let themselves get scared by the party back onto the plantation.... SO we are once again stuck with crap options.
I am no fan of either of these guys, but this idiotic outcome in the primary is just going to damage whoever is the eventual victor that much more.. 40 Million dollars each, and neither can get over 31% of the primary vote... that tells you just how awful they both are going to play in the general.
To put this in perspective, the entire 2018 General election senate race, less than 30 Million was spent combined by BOTH candidates.... These guys BOTH spent more money than the last General Election on a Primary, and neither of them could get more than 31% of the vote and thats among just GOP voters..
These guys are dogs that won’t hunt in PA.... And now this stupid result just makes it even more idiotic.
OZ is a RINO... PA GOP candidate, whoever it ends up being is going just be another joke... PA voters this fall get Uniparty/GLobalist vs Uniparty/Globalist light... and then if the Light version wins... ooo didn’t we do good... Nonsense.
Thank you for the detailed reply. When you say Oz is a RINO, I understand you to mean that he would be an establishment, McConnell supporter who would stab Trump in the back. That is depressing.
I could understand wanting someone other than the BushBot who might have a chance to win, but if the Dem candidate is at death’s door, maybe a true MAGA candidate could have won. Who can predict something like a stroke, though?
In my state, Trump endorsed the Senator that has already been stabbing him in the back. He sailed through.
It may not yet be Trump’s party but it is Trump’s base. That base is acting to steadily make it Trump’s party in Republican primaries so far. That will have to continue both for the remaining primaries this year as well as for the primaries in 2024 and 2026.
We still have a lot of RINOs to flush out of the Republican Party.
The Republican Party came into existence when the Whig Party imploded. That needs to happen again since today’s version of the Republican Party is no better than the DemocRAT Party. UniParty is more accurate.
Barone is a cuck.
The bottom line is that it is WAY MORE Trump’s party in 2022 than it was in 2016. In a representative republic, that is a good thing!
The Dem candidate is NOT at deaths door... He was giving interviews from the hospital he had a blood clot that caused a minor stroke he has suffered no cognitive or long term physical damage.
Here’s how PA works... the GOP of PA is a corrupt swamp, period. Every cycle they give us the faux choice, of a bunch of crap candidates.
The voters here are like battered women, they just keep going back again and again and again... The PA GOP has absolutely no desire for conservative principles or people, other than to show up on election day to pull the lever for their crap candidates.
This year was an odd year, in that the part didn’t endorse anyone... So that opened the door for someone like Barnette to actually pull off an upset. Because the party endorsed no one, and they didn’t because they had 2 candidates they could live with... McCormick and OZ... both fought each other pretty much for the moderate lane.... And since no one else had any money they were happy....
Funny thing happened though. Barnette ran to the right, but she had no money, so while she pounded the pavement and talked to the voters, Oz and McCormick just went to speak to the usual connected folks and places and relied on big ad buys... Voters weren’t buying... Then the debates happened and Barnette got exposure and took off like a rocket.... because the voters were not sold on these two turds.
This of course put the establishment into panic mode and they threw every made up bogus crap thing they could think of at her to make sure the nomination went to someone they wanted... Sadly the voters of PA like the battered women they are, just capitulated.. and now we have a choice that is no choice regardless of who ends up winning.
Fetterman is a strong D candidate, Oz is not only not in any way MAGA, but absolutely completely the wrong branding to win in PA.. and McCormick is just another wall street Bush republican. At BEST they will play like an average R.. and in PA with a 500k registration advantage to the D’s.. an average R vs an average D generally results in a D win, an average R vs a Strong D is going to only result in a D win.. unless the election dynamic is such that the actual candidates don’t matter at all.
If the damage done by Biden and the Economy is bad enough then any R would win, hell a ham sandwich would win... if not, Fetterman will eat either of these guys for breakfast and crap them out by lunch.
I said this months ago, if Oz or McCormick are the nominee, don’t be surprised it PA Senate race bucks the Red Wave trend... I view this race as a bellweather. If either are the nominee and they win the general, then it will be an absolutely devastating night for Democrats up and down the ballot, because the election is purely about repudiating the democrats, period. Strength of candidates won’t matter... We will be talking about republicans winning in places no one even thought were in play.... GOP in this scenario will almost certainly flirt with if not pass triple digit gains in the house.
If however Fetterman wins, then it will still be a good night for the GOP, but it won’t be the abject blowout it could be.
However, I will not be surprised in the least if come Nov 1, the PA race is all but a forgone conclusion for the D’s... some polls showing it “within the margin of error”, but Dem solidly leading for at least a month or more.
We will see.
81 - 3, sure looks like it’s MAGA KING ULTRA Trump’s Party!
Join or stay home and reap what the resident is sowing:-)
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