Posted on 05/20/2022 5:55:19 AM PDT by Kaslin
Is it Donald Trump's Republican Party? You can make the case it is, as partisan Democrats do, from the victories of various candidates endorsed by the former president in Republican primaries. But it's not an airtight case, and Trump's batting average is inflated by the dozens of endorsements he has made of incumbents with no significant primary opposition.
Thus Trump endorsed Gov. Greg Abbott and many other easy winners in Texas's Tuesday primary. But incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton, endorsed by Trump last July, was forced into a runoff by George P. Bush. Paxton leads in runoff polling, but one survey shows his margin narrowing.
In Ohio, Trump disappointed several pro-Trump Senate candidates when he endorsed "Hillbilly Elegy" author and onetime Trump skeptic J.D. Vance on Good Friday, April 15. Vance ended up winning the May 5 primary with 32% to 24% for former state Treasurer Josh Mandel and 23% for state Sen. Matt Dolan.
But was Trump's nod pivotal? Vance jumped from 8% to 15% in previous polling to 23% in a Trafalgar poll conducted between April 13 and April 14, and he had similar numbers in later polls. Primary polling is not an exact science, but the numbers support the conclusion that Trump jumped on the bandwagon of a candidate who had performed well in debates about as well as the conclusion that he swung thousands of voters in Vance's direction.
Trump endorsements had mixed success in the May 10 primaries. In the Nebraska governor race, his candidate Charles Herbster lost to Jim Pillen, a state university regent endorsed by incumbent Gov. Pete Ricketts. But Herbster's personal problems may have been decisive. In the West Virginia race between two incumbent congressmen, Trump endorsee Alex Mooney won a solid victory in a district Trump carried 67% to 31% in 2020.
In Tuesday's North Carolina primary, Trump's endorsement back in June 2021 of Rep. Ted Budd may have been decisive not just in gaining generating support but in winnowing the field. April polling showed Budd, from rural Davie County, pulling well ahead of former Gov. and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory in a party whose primary electorate is increasingly nonmetropolitan, and Budd won 59% to 25%. But controversial Rep. Madison Cawthorn, despite Trump's endorsement, lost to local legislator Chuck Edwards.
Pennsylvania also voted Tuesday, and, as I write, Trump-endorsed TV doctor Mehmet Oz leads former hedge funder David McCormick by just 2,672 votes out of 1.3 million cast. Each is at 31%, not too far ahead of Trump supporter Kathy Barnette's 25%.
If Oz's lead holds up in the full tabulation and likely recount, Trump might claim credit. Certainly, all three candidates (who, oddly in a state with a high percentage of residents born there, all made most of their careers elsewhere) strove to echo his stands on the issues.
Their perhaps opportunistic Trumpishness is in line with results of a recent New York Times focus group of Republican voters, moderated by Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson. Eight out of 10 members raised their hands when asked if they'd support a candidate "who embraces Mr. Trump's agenda." But only 1 in 10 did so when asked about a candidate with "the same style and personality of Mr. Trump."
Similarly, in the May 5-10 NBC News poll, only 34% of Republicans characterized themselves "more of a supporter of Donald Trump," while 58% said they were "more of a supporter of the Republican Party." Earlier NBC polls showed more Republicans identifying with the party rather than the former president starting in April 2021, but the gap has risen from 6 percentage points then to 24 points now.
This is perhaps a natural development. A look back at the last three Republican presidential primaries shows a party moving toward populism on trade, immigration and entitlements, with the party's constituency including more noncollege graduates and nonmetropolitan residents.
Back in 2008, the little-known, lightly financed Mike Huckabee won 22% of the votes in contests until John McCain clinched the nomination on March 4. In 2012, the sweater vest-clad Rick Santorum won 28% of the votes until Mitt Romney clinched the nomination on April 3.
In 2016, Trump faced no single establishment candidate but a field full of rivals afraid to criticize him and bent on undercutting each other. In primaries and caucuses up through April 5, by which time Trump eliminated all but one opponent, he won 36% of the votes -- a steady progression from Huckabee's 22% and Santorum's 28%. So did Trump create MAGA, or did MAGA create Trump?
My conclusion: It's a Trumpish party, but not exactly Trump's party. It's also a party on the brink of a big midterm victory, judging from primary turnout so far. More Republican ballots have been cast than Democratic ones in every primary state so far except Oregon, with Republicans casting 65% and 67% of ballots in solid Republican Ohio and Texas and 53% and 55% in marginal Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Trump will claim credit for the party's victories, but Republicans may not renominate this former president in 2024, just as they declined to renominate Ulysses S. Grant in 1880 and Theodore Roosevelt in 1912.
Screw you Barone! Trump is in control no matter how much it burns you neoCON globalist Bush ass-kissers up!
Ping
Barone, like most political pundits, can’t pull their feeble minds away from the idea all voters are attracted to shiny objects only.
They just cannot imagine anyone would be motivated to vote for an America as it was founded, and anyone who promised to restore it would receive their support.
Why post this Fraud lies .
He's right.
Long way to go, for one thing, we’ve got to get better candidates. For now, I suppose just saying you are “MAGA” is the best we can do, but eventually we need better people to run for our side.
Actually, the MSM created MAGA because they promoted the heck out of Trump during the Republican primaries with the expectation that he would be the easiest candidate for sHrillary to defeat in the General.
Little did the MSM realize that voters actually liked what they heard from Trump, and their multiple October Surprises failed to dissuade voters from choosing Trump over sHrillary.
I still believe that President Trump should form a new America First Party. I would run away from the RNC as fast as possible and I know many other people who would do the same thing.
Trump’s idiotic endorsement of OZ took what was already likely to be a poor candidate McCormick, and make it even worse...
His endorsement added maybe 3 points to Oz, because OZ is not and never will be anything close to MAGA...
MAGA is indeed a very very real and powerful win in politics, but don’t think for one minute that being MAGA means you are going to say “how high” when Trump says jump.
However, make no mistake, GOP politics is still absolutely dominate by Trump... and anyone suggesting otherwise is a fool.
That may change between now and 2024, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Actually, if he said he was a Democrat, I would vote for him. That would make the heads of some presstitutes explode.
Given his age, he has the the choice of one of two parties, I think.
MAGA already existed, it was just ignored.... TRUMP is the only candidate willing to address the issues he was, because he wasn’t beholden to the GOPe money men who would have never given the time of day to anyone talking negatively about globalism, free trade and immigration.. period.
MAGA existed, but it was shut out and suppressed by 2 parties who had absolutely no interest in doing what’s right for america... they had both sold america out and had no problem doing so as long as it padded their own pockets.
So Trump didn’t create MAGA, but he did offer it a voice.
Trump is rebuilding it from it’s own image. It’s his party, thank God.
Dead Dog- Never Say Never Trumper
Does anyone believe the Democrat party is a Biden party? Or an Obama party? How about the Democrat party is the media party?
I don’t understand your post, at all. The RINO, McCormick, was going to walk away with it, wasn’t he? PA would be a pivotal state in 2024, so I can certainly see Trump trying for a different outcome.
Isn’t the Democrat now in the hospital, hopefully for the last time? It seems more important than ever that the Republican is not a RINO, since he may actually win.
The horoscope for MAGA and Ultra-MAGA is that they are ascendant in the House of Trump. Or something.
Barone nearly gets it - that we (MAGA) hired Trump and we haven’t fired him yet. Until we do, Trump is the guy.
This creepy womanish “Well, I just don’t know if Donald Trump is the right candidate and I’m just not sure about him; I think he’s bound to lose sooner or later!” is extraordinarily lame.
It’s almost as lame as Democrats’ steadfast refusal to admit “their” administration has torched our economy, gotten American soldiers killed, caused rioting and violence, destroyed businesses and jobs with its ridiculous compliance with a bogus “pandemic,” caused untold woe and death with by forcing dangerous “vaccines,” unconstitutionally killed and imprisoned American citizens for protesting the stolen election, sold our state secrets to hostile foreign entities - and, well, I’ll just stop here, although I could go on.
What have the Democrats done that was RIGHT? Nothing that I know of. What have RINOs done that was RIGHT? Not a gosh-darned thing.
What do these “writers” do but try to keep a lock on their phoney-baloney jobs by being ChoMoeJoe’s little helpers?
I imagine them gloating amongst their friends and families because, “Yes, I’m a WRITER. I WRITE for TOWNHALL.”
The Democrats aren’t going to reward your brown-nosing. You think they will, but they won’t.
I’m currently reading U.S. Grants memoirs, edited by Twain, it has been in continuous print since its publication. Twain talked Grant into writing it, and it was an opportune point in Grants life from both his experiences, his lousy health, and that his memory was still intact, and sharp.
Good read so far.
All The Barnette supporters fell for one the oldest rino tricks in the book. Run a conservative-talking candidate to split the vote and get their establishment rino candidate through the primary. You are all suckers and Mitch’s bitches.
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