Amateur Hour Part I: The Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

War on the Rocks ^ | May 18 2022 | Mike Pietrucha

[texas booster]

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine set off a flurry of handwringing over Taiwan. Russia, in this interpretation, “broke the ice” by attacking Ukraine, emboldening China versus Taiwan. But any such action by China would likely run into a similar buzzsaw of resistance, while lacking Russian advantages such as access to overland transit. Ukraine is not Taiwan, and regardless of what Chinese leadership thinks they are learning about the benefits of naked aggression, the PLA lacks the necessary power projection and sustainment capability and capacity to execute an opposed occupation of a densely urbanized island packed with citizens who have no interest in living under Communist rule.

One key fact about the PLA is that it is a party army first and a professional army second.

Amphibious or airborne assaults are the hardest joint operations to undertake and they are always a learning experience. Rather than assemble a list of advanced Chinese equipment and match it against a similar list for Taiwan, it is more instructive to look at what it takes to assault a populated island. There is a long list of comparative cases from World War II, ranging from the Pacific island-hopping campaign to the invasion of Madagascar, the air assault on Crete, and the allied invasion of Sicily. The last is the closest analog based on terrain, size, distance covered by the invasion force, and logistical demands.

Looking solely at the American Task Force, the assault force consisted of 316 amphibious ships with a combined tonnage of around 780,000 tons, capable of carrying 72,000 soldiers and 122,000 tons of cargo and vehicles. The assault wave was equipped with almost 1000 landing craft and small boats not counted in the total ship count, plus amphibious trucks and pontoon systems that were used to cross the surf line from grounded vessels.

[Brian Griffin]

“Author makes the point that all of the “traditional” amphibious capability possessed by China does not equal the effort put forth by the Allies in assaulting Sicily.”

Only a small number of Chinese know what they actually have.

[arthurus]

Taiwan also has a huge number of “fifth columnists” on the Island. Russia had very few if any in Ukraine as all the pro Russians had concentrated in the Donbas.

[jpp113]

Taiwan has had plenty of time to scope out likely amphibious landing areas and set up fields of fire. Just hope they actually did that

[buwaya]

Of course, it would be an act of war. The point is that it is a far less risky military operation than an amphibious invasion and just as likely to be decisive.

The diplomatic and economic fallout would be similar, probably, or maybe less, if there are no large casualties or bombardments of civilians, etc. A blockade would be less likely to involve these politically inconvenient things. If a cruise ship were to get sunk that would be another story.

[Mariner]

“the PLA lacks the necessary power projection and sustainment capability and capacity to execute an opposed occupation of a densely urbanized island”

I’ve been saying that for years on this site.

But dumbasses keep disagreeing.

[Mariner]

“The point is that it is a far less risky military operation than an amphibious invasion and just as likely to be decisive.”

And that likelihood is damn near nil.

Because China would not fire on a US and/or Japanese relief convoy. This because thy KNOW they would be starting a fight they would lose badly.

[ifinnegan]

Yes.

If ChiComs do something they think they can shoot missiles to make Taiwan accept a1C2S deal, which is ludicrous.

But they feel they will have support from certain elements in Taiwan and from the U.S..

[The Great RJ]

However, China has one big advantage...President Biden. From the disaster in the Afghanistan withdrawal it is obvious that Biden will not act decisively and will go into hiding until the ruling cabal loads his teleprompter. China will have free hand to invade and fear few consequences from the US as longer as Dementia Joe is Commander in Chief.

[rxh4n1]

“the PLA lacks the necessary power projection and sustainment capability and capacity to execute an opposed occupation of a densely urbanized island”

I’ve been saying that for years on this site.

But dumbasses keep disagreeing.

Operation Sea Lion is a more apt comparison than Sicily (Operation Husky). China is in much the same situation as Germany was. No experience in amphibious operations, and few, if any amphibious shipping, and no air superiority.