Posted on 05/19/2022 2:49:45 PM PDT by texas booster
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine set off a flurry of handwringing over Taiwan. Russia, in this interpretation, “broke the ice” by attacking Ukraine, emboldening China versus Taiwan. But any such action by China would likely run into a similar buzzsaw of resistance, while lacking Russian advantages such as access to overland transit. Ukraine is not Taiwan, and regardless of what Chinese leadership thinks they are learning about the benefits of naked aggression, the PLA lacks the necessary power projection and sustainment capability and capacity to execute an opposed occupation of a densely urbanized island packed with citizens who have no interest in living under Communist rule.
One key fact about the PLA is that it is a party army first and a professional army second.
Amphibious or airborne assaults are the hardest joint operations to undertake and they are always a learning experience. Rather than assemble a list of advanced Chinese equipment and match it against a similar list for Taiwan, it is more instructive to look at what it takes to assault a populated island. There is a long list of comparative cases from World War II, ranging from the Pacific island-hopping campaign to the invasion of Madagascar, the air assault on Crete, and the allied invasion of Sicily. The last is the closest analog based on terrain, size, distance covered by the invasion force, and logistical demands.
Looking solely at the American Task Force, the assault force consisted of 316 amphibious ships with a combined tonnage of around 780,000 tons, capable of carrying 72,000 soldiers and 122,000 tons of cargo and vehicles. The assault wave was equipped with almost 1000 landing craft and small boats not counted in the total ship count, plus amphibious trucks and pontoon systems that were used to cross the surf line from grounded vessels.
(Excerpt) Read more at warontherocks.com ...
Over the first 48 hours, the fire support ships fired 3766 shells.
From:
I have excepted all I can.
The article is well worth a read. Author makes the point that all of the “traditional” amphibious capability possessed by China does not equal the effort put forth by the Allies in assaulting Sicily.
The Luftwaffe made its presence felt, deadly at times, during the Allied invasion of Sicily. In this photo, German bombs fall perilously close to Allied ships supporting the landings on the Mediterranean island in July 1943.
Now imagine what Taiwan has at it capability having prepared for this attack for the last 70 years.
If they haven't squandered their legacy like our politicians have.
The last time China was at war was against Viet Nam in 1979, they did not do so well. They are biding their time, waiting for the right time to engage Taiwan. Two factors, the US, and resultant international fallout. They cannot risk loss of their export economy. Tough decision, look for them to make the wrong move.
The Chinese don’t have invade. All they need to do is declare a blockade of Taiwan, and make it stick. Thats a much easier military problem, if not much less of a politico-economic risk.
Militarily all they have to do is damage or sink a few merchant ships, at see or in dock, using air and naval assets (probably submarines) and ballistic missiles.
The US and its Asian allies will then have to decide if they want to run a “Malta Convoy” to Taipei and risk open war with China, for control of the East Asian seas. Thats my horror scenario.
A few planes tangle, a commercial ship or two gets fired on, or maybe one of the forward islands gets taken. There will have be a decision to be made - whether to fight back or not.
Pardon me for spitballing here, but the Chinese can make life miserable without invading, and just wait for the Taiwanese to respond with aggression or give in. And what would we do? Defend Taiwan or defend Walmart’s supply lines?
If the rumors of Xi being ill are true, the military might not wait too long to try out their new toys.
How much of it makes it over the Straight unscathed will be the true test.
I dont see that in such a war there is going to be much use for the Chinese army, other than maybe as occupation forces. This is going to be an air-naval conflict entirely.
Great minds. :)
“The article is well worth a read. Author makes the point that all of the “traditional” amphibious capability possessed by China does not equal the effort put forth by the Allies in assaulting Sicily.”
Not only that but new technologies mostly help the defenders. Landing craft are still large, slow moving, and vulnerable.
What’s new is they will have to deal with barrages from shore batteries with far with far greater range, accuracy, and power than those of the 1940s.
If the rumors of Xi being ill are true, the military might not wait too long to try out their new toys.
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And so supposedly is Vlad. FACT is, both their “ replacements” are much more militant and much more likely to use force. Nationalism is at record highs with their citizens, much like our current senile Joe administration and his Ukie war propaganda, taking advantage of failed economies always raises calls for war.
Many nations have an axe to grind with “ little Satan”, the US. I have been all over God’s green Earth, and many nations are correct in their observation of the US- gay marriage, gay pride, boys in girls locker rooms, men in woman’s sports,
an unholy, unnatural nation we have become.
Both China and Russia will have no problem energizing their populace for war against an immoral, corrupted America.
very good article...
Not only what you wrote…but they’ve never done it.
We had Africa and the pacific to learn. The Chinese don’t have that knowledge or logistical experience.
Plus, they won’t be able to hide the buildup.
I would not want to be the tip of that spear.
“ to look at what it takes to assault a populated island”
There’s the first wrong assumption. I wouldn’t put it past the Chicoms to depopulate Taiwan before sending in troops. I mean, SloJo wouldn’t do anything to stop a genocide.
I'm not sure any country can simply declare a "blockade", without declaring war. The link below discusses issues with blockades.
To what extent is a blockade an act of war?
Here's an excerpt from one response:
"A blockade is a hostile act and could be used to invoke a right of self defence. By definition it will threaten the territorial and political integrity of a state, because you’re denying them use of their own waters. That equates to the use of force by one state against another and that gives you the right to defend against it.
Blockades are a grey area. Under normal circumstances, a blockade would have to be sanctioned by the United Nations Security Council. a full blockade would always be unlawful in today’s era as it would contravene the Geneva Conventions (e.g. even in times of war you can’t block or target medical supplies, food, etc to civilians). A full blockade would be non-discriminate targeting and therefore unlawful."
China would do better invading Siberia.
1. It’s far easier given that Siberia is practically undefended right now.
2. It would be a land invasion of an adjacent country.
3. The West will not sanction China for invading a bit of land that used to belong to them anyway.
4. The West might even help.
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