Russian military convoy has advanced from Ivankiv to outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show (17 miles long)

A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.

On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.

Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.

The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 16, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin's supporters formally nominated him as an independent candidate for the 2024 presidential elections on December 16, further solidifying Putin's image as a figure above the Russian political system. The Russian “initiative group of voters” composed of over 500 politicians, actors, athletes, milbloggers, occupation officials, and even a Donetsk People's Republic's (DNR) battalion commander, unanimously supported Putin's decision to run as a self-nominated candidate during the elections.[10] Secretary of the United Russia Party's General Council Andrey Turchak stated that Putin will be able to establish his election campaign headquarters after completing all procedures for self-nomination – such as registering the initiative group and gathering 300,000 constituents’ signatures – and that the United Russia Party fully supports Putin's campaign.[11] Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin also stated that the entire Russian government is “Putin's team” and that Putin's decision to run in the presidential elections corresponds to constituencies’ demands.[12] Putin had previously run as an independent candidate in 2018, and ISW’s non-resident Russia fellow Nataliya Bugayova then assessed that Putin creates conditions in which most Russians believe that other Russians support him - an outcome that self-nomination is likely meant to simulate.[13] Bugayova also assessed in 2018 that Putin cares about the perceived legitimacy of the presidential elections, despite the fact that most Russians recognize the regime's policy failures and the limitations it imposes on their civil liberties. The proclaimed support for Putin of the United Russia Party, other factions, and the government creates the illusion that Putin stands above the Russian political fray and establishes him as a unique figure uniting all of Russia.

Putin also met with faction leaders, Chairman of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin, and First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko on December 15 to similarly portray himself as above Russian politics.[14] Putin told faction leaders that the presidential election must happen on a competitive basis and called on them to form their positions with a deep understanding of Russian national interests and their responsibility to the Russian public. Putin appears to be positioning himself as a referee able to speak to and guide Russian factions from above even as he nominally “runs” for an office he is certain to win. Putin likely seeks to portray himself as above Russian politics in an effort to distance himself from the controversies of some of these factions and appear as a singular candidate – a role-play that is likely increasingly important to Putin as the veneer of competitive elections in Russia becomes ever thinner.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-16-2023

Russian blogger:

This is Putin's order. The military was given a new date for the capture of Avdeevka

Our army must take Avdeevka before the New Year - so that 2024 begins for Russia with a victory at the front. According to three sources among officers (two of them are storming the city, one is in Donetsk), such an order from Vladimir Putin was transmitted to the army. “The task is not just to take Avdiivka before January 1, but to take it as soon as possible. As I understand it, Vladimir Vladimirovich wants to mention this victory in his New Year's address. If it doesn't work out, then that's okay, but it's better that it works out. Such introductory information, as far as I know, was transmitted from Moscow,” said one of our interlocutors.

Another is dissatisfied with this order. “If now we have 200 to 600 soldiers per day dying and losing arms and legs near Avdeevka, then can you imagine what will happen if we intensify the assaults? And then the mobilized began to fight worse. Someone told them that there would be demobilization (he said,as we wrote, not in vain, although this topic has not yet been advertised - ed.). This is how they hope to survive. Some even shoot themselves in the foot to avoid the assault. I know two such cases. And then there's this rush…” the officer complained. In general, sources believe that it is possible to take Avdiivka before the New Year. True, no one can predict for sure whether this task will be accomplished. We note that the president's previous task - to take Avdiivka before December 1 - was, unfortunately, not completed.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3289

Another unrealistic target

Russian blogger:

Clashes at the Moscow Садовод market occurred due to the distribution of summons to the army to migrants

On Friday evening at the Садовод market in Moscow there were serious clashes between migrants and police. As a result of the fights, more than 80 migrants were detained, and this is only official data. The police claim that one of the migrants attacked an employee while trying to check documents. The conflict ended with the intervention of more than a hundred migrants and numerous police forces.

Unofficially, we learned that a police officer was trying to find out where the market workers lived in order to issue them subpoenas and recruit them into the [invasion of Ukraine]. Sources say that the police were promised a bonus for a good indicator of “mobilization of migrants.” The worst employees were threatened with being sent to the front of the [invasion of Ukraine]

Unfortunately, our insight is coming true before our eyes. A few months ago we wrote that the authorities are planning to attract migrants to the war. This is part of the Kremlin's agreement with Moscow Mayor Sobyanin, who was quietly re-elected to a new term in September. In return, Sobyanin gave the go-ahead for the mobilization of 50 thousand Muscovites, but proposed to focus on migrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus republics. Especially those who recently received a Russian passport. In the Asian and Caucasian diasporas, such actions by the authorities are condemned. It is already known about the creation of closed chats in case of forceful opposition when trying to distribute summons to one of the migrants. The authorities have so far responded with raids and retaliatory force.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3288

Russian blogger:

“They killed each other.” We found out how and why two of our Su-25s crashed

We are talking about the causes of the disaster, as a result of which yesterday, December 17 two of our Su-25 aircraft crashed and their pilots died. The information was confirmed by four sources in the Russian Aerospace Forces. It turned out that the planes crashed in the air, colliding with each other. “The Su-25 attacked enemy positions and returned to their home airfield. We had to avoid attacks from Ukrainian air defense. There was poor visibility due to the weather. As a result, the pilot of one of the planes lost control and crashed into another,” one of the sources said. “Basically, the guys killed each other. Such a tragic accident...” - said another.

According to the interlocutors, our air defense was also working in the area of the disaster, so at first a version appeared that the Su-25s were shot down by “friendly fire.” This version has not been confirmed. “Our “Buk” actually confused one of the planes with a Ukrainian one and fired at it. But he didn't hit the target. And then a fatal collision occurred,” the Aerospace Forces admitted.

Sources asked us not to say on which part of the front the disaster occurred, so as “not to please the enemy.” And so that the command does not understand who disclosed information about two lost planes at once.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3294

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 17, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened Finland and the wider NATO alliance in a statement ostensibly meant to dismiss concerns about the threat that Russia poses to NATO. Putin gave an extended interview with Russian state TV channel Rossiya 1 on December 17, wherein he attempted to deny US President Joe Biden's December 6 warning that Russia would attack a NATO country in the future if it won the war in Ukraine.[1] Putin argued that Russia does not have any geopolitical, economic, military, or territorial reason to fight NATO and that Russia is interested in developing relations with NATO member states.[2] Putin followed this supposed reassurance with an accusation that NATO member states artificially created conflict between Russia and Finland and “dragged“ Finland into the NATO alliance.[3] Putin stated that “there will be problems” with Finland and that Finland's NATO accession prompted Russian officials to start forming the Leningrad Military District (LMD) and concentrating military units in northwestern Russia.[4] The Russian military is currently redividing the Western Military District (WMD) to reform the LMD and the Moscow Military District (MMD) as part of a long-term restructuring and expansion effort that aims to prepare Russia for a potential future large-scale conventional war against NATO.[5] The WMD is responsible for the Russian border with NATO members Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland but has largely been committed to the fight in Ukraine, where it has incurred significant losses.[6] The restoration of the LMD and MMD is likely intended to balance Russian operational requirements in Ukraine with Russian military posturing along the Russian border with NATO.[7] Putin's justification for the formation of the LMD, which will be responsible for an area bordering Finland, Sweden, and the Arctic, suggests that he sees the LMD as a military response to the “problems” of current and future NATO members in Scandinavia.

Putin's reassurances about his peaceful intentions toward NATO ring hollow in the context of the threats he and Kremlin pundits have recently been making against NATO member states. Putin threatened Poland on July 21, stating that Russia would respond “with all the means” at its disposal after Warsaw sent troops to the Belarusian-Polish border due to the redeployment of Wagner Group fighters to Belarus.[8] Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev threatened on August 29 that Russia had “an opportunity to act within the framework of jus ad bellum against everyone in NATO countries” when commenting on Western support of Ukrainian strikes on occupied Crimea.[9] Medvedev similarly threatened Poland in November when he stated that Russia deems Warsaw to be a “dangerous enemy” that could lose its “statehood.”[10] A Russian propagandist suggested on Russian state TV on December 2 that Baltic states would be Russia's next military target and that they would fall shortly after Ukraine.[11] Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, Medvedev, and other pundits consistently threaten to use nuclear weapons against the United States and other NATO countries.[12] These threats are part of long-standing Russian narratives about attacking NATO that predated Finland's application and acceptance into the alliance on April 4.[13] The statements of Russian pundits do not pose a military threat to NATO countries, to be sure, but they are important context for Putin's ostensible effort to calm the waters during his December 17 interview. Putin's proclamation that Russia has no interest in invading NATO is also very similar to the Kremlin's persistent claims in late 2021 and early 2022 — including right up to the eve of the invasion — that Russia did not intend to invade Ukraine.[14] The interview was likely a deliberate attempt to reamplify the Kremlin's efforts to misrepresent the Russian military threat as an imaginary and artificial NATO invention.[15]

Putin continues to express a world view in which Russia must impose its will without any compromise or face existential consequences. Putin stated in his interview with Rossiya 1 that he was naive in the 2000s and thought that the West understood that there was no basis for confrontation with Russia.[38] Putin accused the West of continuing to fight Russia as it had done with the Soviet Union because it had not rethought the Cold War era structures that the West had constructed.[39] Putin also accused some in the West of pursuing the full destruction and balkanization of Russia, framing Putin's perceived geopolitical confrontation with the collective West in existential terms.[40] Putin has built a world view over two decades of rule in which dissatisfaction with the West has grown into a hardened zero-sum view of Russian and Western power.[41] Putin has increasingly expressed a narrative alleging that there is a concerted decades-long Western effort to diminish Russian power and inflict a permanent strategic defeat upon it, and he has grouped any geopolitical setback however minor into that narrative.[42] Putin's worldview suggests that Putin regards anything less than full Western surrender to Russian grand strategic objectives as insufficient.[43]

This zero-sum world view of geopolitics is indicative of Putin's personal philosophy, which prizes power above all else and frames any compromise as defeat. Putin implied in the Rossiya 1 interview that he did not apologize to his mother as a child (despite her punishments and numerous requests for an apology) but held firm until she finally wavered in punishing him.[44] This anecdote, bizarrely intruded into a conversation about Russian strategic objectives, may have been an indirect reference to Putin's commitment to force those opposed to him to capitulate. This view is also clearly seen in the key thesis of Putin's quasi-auto-biography First Person, which argues that Putin concluded that it was necessary to impose his will upon the world, first himself and then Russia's survival.[45]

full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-17-2023

To understand why Russia does what it does, see Martti Kari's presentation
https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=5649#5649

Russian blogger:

Kyiv is preparing an insidious plan in case the war freezes and the SVO [= war in Ukraine] ends - a source in the Foreign Intelligence Service.

Talks continue that the SVO could end as early as 2024. And although Vladimir Putin looked very decisive during the press conference, the authorities are discussing the prospect of freezing the war in the spring or summer and the further restoration of the army. However, on the eve of the press conference, the president received a fresh report from Naryshkin SVR, which said that Kyiv is also preparing for various scenarios. In particular, the Ukrainian government is preparing a cunning plan in case the conflict freezes and the NWO ends.

It is said about preparing three key areas: firstly, Kyiv is investing a lot and will continue to invest in the military industry, building factories in the west of the country. In this way, the Ukrainian authorities want to reduce dependence on Western partners.

Secondly, Ukraine, together with the American and British intelligence services, will rely on the internal split of Russia. Including interethnic conflicts, fueling potential hot spots in national republics. A plan that at first glance may seem unpromising, according to the SVR, can be extremely dangerous. Intelligence claims that discontent is growing in the national republics due to the death of many soldiers at the front. This includes such remote republics as Tyva, Yakutia and Tatarstan.

Thirdly, the Ukrainian authorities are working on a legal mechanism for selecting seized Russian assets abroad. Here, the assets of large businessmen who have already been arrested will come under attack first. At the same time, Kyiv plans to continue working and seek new arrests, thus relieving Western countries of the need to invest their own funds in the restoration of Ukraine.

This seemingly harmless report caused serious discussions in the intelligence services. There is nothing fundamentally new in this, but the SVR also hinted at the possibility of developing a Ukrainian space program to strike targets in the distant Russian rear.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3298

1 is already done - Rheinmetall for instance
https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2023/10/2023-10-24-rheinmetall-ag-and-ukrainian-defense-industry-jsc-establish-joint-venture-in-kyiv ),

2 works by itself, and the reason the SVR blames the US and UK is because they need it for propaganda.

3 has been under preparation for a long time in the US and the EU. https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2023/dec/11/ukraine-russia-300bn-frozen-assets-west-cash-putin-war

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 18, 2023

The Russian Government Commission on Legislative Activity supported a bill that would criminalize “Russophobia” abroad, likely as part of ongoing efforts to maintain and increase Russian influence in post-Soviet countries. Russian State Duma Deputy from the United Russia party, Irina Yarovaya, proposed a draft bill that would punish foreign citizens and stateless individuals who do not permanently reside in Russia for “Russophobia” outside of Russia.[17] The current law can only punish foreign officials, foreign citizens employed by international organizations, and foreign citizens using their official positions for spreading “Russophobia” publicly or committing “Russophobic” acts.[18] The law defines “Russophobia” as acts or public calls to commit discriminatory actions against Russian citizens or “compatriots.”[19] Russia has intentionally and broadly defined “compatriots” as ethnic Russians and Russian speakers and does not limit the definition to those holding Russian citizenship or residing in the Russian Federation.[20]

Russian officials have routinely criticized efforts in the South Caucasus and Central Asia that promote indigenous languages and education at the perceived expense of Russian language and education.[21] Russian officials may use the proposed bill to threaten foreign officials with criminal proceedings for promoting indigenous language and education programs by labeling these initiatives “Russophobic.” Russian authorities may use this new bill to intensify criticisms against foreign citizens and officials by initiating criminal proceedings as part of ongoing efforts to enforce foreign compliance with Russian-supported and pro-Russian initiatives, programs, and narratives.

full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-18-2023

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.