Posted on 11/02/2020 11:29:09 PM PST by SmokingJoe
@AlexBerenson So in the last 48 hours @realclearnews has flipped four states from Biden to Trump. Florida will be next. At that point it’ll be 290 to 248 with both Pennsylvania and Arizona still in the Biden camp. Get ready for a long night...
(Excerpt) Read more at mobile.twitter.com ...
@realclearnews is RCP’s Twitter handle
== = ==
Thanks....I thought everyone knew that...and, that the two were affiliated.
I’m not sure where or from whom it originated; just that it is beautiful like you said and I also see the red wave in it.
Every four years, the Real Clear Politics Poll Average results compared with the actual election results proves that they are not accurate, not reliable, and not predictive. Yet people still believe them. Don't pay any attention to them.
RCP doesn’t do anything more than arithmetic. They take all the poll results for a particular state and compute an average result from them. The races they are “changing” are the no tossup ones. This occurs when new polls change the average result from favoring one candidate to another. Their other map, with toss ups, gives a better idea of what the polls are saying about the race. The no tossup map is misleading.
For example if there are 5 polls in a state with results of Biden +1, +2, +1, and Trump +2 and +1, the average would be Biden +0.2. Obviously it’s a tossup. Suppose that the poll that had Biden +2 issues a new result showing the race tied. The new average would be Trump +0.2 — that’s a change on the no tossup map, but it’s obviously not a real change in the actual status of the race; it’s still a tossup.
Don’t blame RCP for being inaccurate. RCP isn’t doing any polling or predicting, just arithmetic. Any inaccuracies come from the polling outfits not RCP. Obviously with inaccurate polling data gives inaccurate poll averages, so the RCP numbers probably aren’t significant.
Yes. That's precisely why the Dems and their fake news media polls regularly game it to suppress Republican turn out.
They only tighten it at the very last minute to cover their butts.
It's the biggest con going.
Has been tore while.
the problem is the methodology; they are averaging data that is not normalized. They skipped that step. The average of polls is pure junk.
Not sure where she got it or if one of their own photog’s took the picture but it is a good one worth sharing.
Now I know it was from Michigan.
RCP select the polls that constitute their average. Their arithmetic may be correct, but they have stacked the deck before they start the adding. It's not random.
Will see if Trafalgar is right this time..
I will say the PA poll is in low range of where I think Trump will wind up. 2-3 point win on the low end.
I expect NV to go red.
Fail
This is like saying “don’t blame drudge, he’s just a news aggregator.”
LOL!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.