Posted on 10/31/2020 2:22:00 PM PDT by Kevin in California
While Joe Biden’s rallies draw attendees by the dozens, President Donald Trump continues attracting people by the thousands.
We know who is attending Biden’s rallies: Democrats who would’ve voted Democrat no matter what. Biden isn’t pulling support from anywhere else. Despite the rise of self-professed “principled Republicans” voting against their principles like the David Frenchs of the world, or the more transparent grifters like those in the Lincoln Project,
Trump is expected to win a larger share of the Republican vote than he did in 2016. Seven percent of Republicans defected and voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but only 5% plan on voting for Biden this year. Of note, 8% of Republicans voted for Obama in 2008.
This is what I hope we can hang our hats on. “Likely voter” models rely on the voting history of the respondent. If they haven’t voted lately, they aren’t counted as a likely voter in their polls. This is, in my view, the “hidden Trump voter”.
These numbers are why the polls are way off.
But will/have they voted for president Trump’s re-election? Or did they just come to the rally for an adrenalin high?
All signs pointing to a huge Trump win. It’s all over but the hymn singing. Trump 2020!!!
I know that the campaign has spent a great deal of time & money with the entire GOTV campaign. They have registered hundreds of thousands of new Republicans in the Swing States.
They have knocked on a million doors a week since the primaries & have overtaken the Democrats in number of registered voters for the first time since possibly reconstruction. They have concentrated on evangelicals who have a less than 40% voter rate.
The Democrats have NO ground game. By design. They expect the Virus to take them over the top, however they are behind on mail in & in person voting. They have a great deal of low propensity voters that REQUIRE a knock on the door or a GOTV program like Souls to the Polls with busing early voters from the Black churches after Sunday Services. Also the colleges aren’t in session as normal the tens of thousands of college kids they drag from the dorms to the local campus poll are all in the basement at Mom & Dad’s & you know darn well lots of dads will be checking Billy & Jennies vote. They will explain that an improper vote will cause them to be at the local community college & not Party State University.
I’m still nervous as all get out, but I’m confident that our side will leave it all on the field while the Democrats are phoning it in relying on a fraud machine that may not work out as well as they planned.
They register them to vote if they are unregistered. At least they were. It is a lot easier to get to the polls than to spend 8 hours or more standing around for a political rally.
I suspect better than 99% are casting ballots.
I seriously doubt anyone who has invested time and money to go to one of the President’s rallies does not go on and vote for him.
Hey GOPe, here’s your “Big Tent” you have been crying about having.
And they probably still haven’t learned a thing.
I suspect you're projecting your own addiction to "adrenalin highs" onto other people.
1. Before Trump polls were accurate in predicting Presidential elections. That is not the case anymore.
2. There is a huge surge among Republican and first time voters who are supporting Trump that polling is missing because voters are not responding to polls.
3. The "Reagan Democrats" are in fact back and the Democrat leadership, news and pollsters are in denial.
The fact that more Democrats have voted early than Republicans yet the overall popular vote is in the margin of error means a large part of Democrat voters have already voted for Trump.
4. Trump needs a unpredicted, unprecedented landslide win like never before. I think he's going to get it.
Obama never won in Arizona, so I can’t imagine Biden beating Trump in Arizona—since Obama couldn’t beat McCain or Romney -and Hillary didn’t win there. Latinos don’t like Biden....can’t get excited about Biden.Jeff Flake and Cindy McCain only can do so much damage.....considering that Biden is pushing for amnesty, open borders, catch and release and when the AZ economy is booming and nobody wants another shutdown.
No, I don’t do adrenalin highs. However, I am on a ‘skepticism’ bent.
Me thinks the lady doth protest... too much.
I have probabily told 3 or 4 pollsters not interested.
If these numbers are correct and similar situations are happening in other swing states - 10 % + Rats switching to Trump, lots of 1st time voters coming out to vote for Trump, plus 20 % + black vote & 40 % + Latino vote .. it will be a landslide.
It all comes down to how much cheating can the Rats get away with in the swing states
Think of it this way: if you do not like a particular band, would you spend time to get tickets, stand in line for hours/a day to see the band perform? People don’t show up to an event if they are not interested in the candidate/performer, (PDJT is definitely a performer). Nobody shows up if they aren’t interested except if they want to disrupt the event, and there have been almost no “protestors during his events this year.
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