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Florida Early Vote update, 10/31/2020
ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/31/2020 | self

Posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 644,202

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 528,151

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 116,051


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: earlyvoting; florida
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To: Coop

I would guess you look at total registration and start with 2016’s 75% turnout. That would be a reasonable first estimate.

FL registered 14.065M. 75% would be 10.5M. So the elections official is looking for 79%. VBM is generally accepted as increasing overall turnout and thus, 4% over 2016. Reasonable.


281 posted on 10/31/2020 2:58:46 PM PDT by Owen
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Still need final Clark IPEV and Nye as well. Should knock another 3500-4k off the lead.


282 posted on 10/31/2020 2:58:49 PM PDT by southpaw1
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To: Owen; janetjanet998; Cathi; LS; byecomey; bort; Ravi; SpeedyInTexas; carton253; SmokingJoe; ...
Pulled my previous info from Speedy's 10/23 FL thread & tweaked. These were counties that started IPEV on 10/24:

How did [the above counties] vote in Nov 2016?

2016 United States presidential election in Florida:

Bold text indicates GOP counties continuing to vote after today. Numbers in brackets are total 2016 votes acc to Wikipedia. This list is not intended to be all inclusive. There are other counties that will continue early voting; some could be GOP friendly. I'll leave that for someone else to research.
283 posted on 10/31/2020 3:04:28 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: Owen

We’re going to walk into ED down 3-4% of remaining votes. About 2.5M out of 11. So it would be like seeing down 3.5% with 78% if the vote already in.

Reps do much better on election day, but the lower the burden, the better. Meaning hold them down tomorrow and Monday and for sure have more than 2.5M votes come in Tuesday.


284 posted on 10/31/2020 3:05:07 PM PDT by Owen
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To: janetjanet998

Life is good. Have a cocktail. :-) I am enjoying an adult beverage from America’s oldest brewery right now.


285 posted on 10/31/2020 3:05:29 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: Owen
VBM is generally accepted as increasing overall turnout and thus, 4% over 2016.

Unless all the early voting just devastated election day turnout. (Hope not!)

286 posted on 10/31/2020 3:08:34 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: Coop

I just had a Lager myself. Bottoms up!


287 posted on 10/31/2020 3:11:06 PM PDT by wireman
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To: Coop

There are other counties that will continue early voting; some could be GOP friendly. I’ll leave that for someone else to research.


NOT SURE IF YOU SAW THIS I POSTED THURSDAY EVENING
note last couple of days Miami-dae has been +500 D IPEV

I am sure I made some minor mistakes and typos but:

what if today was Sunday and only the counties opened then voted with todays data>

keep in mind I am not sure what counties were opened 2020 vs 2016 the Sunday before election day

if more Rep counties are opened this year those votes may be lost election day votes this year

Dems won early in person voting that day by 52,000ish votes
but alot of those votes are already
difference between in person voting yesterday and today
Broward +4164 D
Orange +616 D
lean +464 D
Gads +236 D

hillsbor +1717 R
pinel. +1566
Mantne. +1811
charelt +1265
volsia. +1740
Bay. +2053
Duval. +1388
Palm b. +1623
Miami-d. +384

6 other small red counties +1485

so R +10,318 in person votes today in the match up of Sunday opened counties

but it gets better
Two Big ones: Polk and Sarasota have no data yet to compare

so if there was no “souls to the polls” D-push in the data

Rep would have eon todays in early person voting at least by 10,318

and the overall net day of day +2-3K


288 posted on 10/31/2020 3:14:33 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: wireman

Sadly, my lager is no longer. I may have to procure another.


289 posted on 10/31/2020 3:18:50 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: janetjanet998

But are you saying that all those counties you listed will be voting on Sunday and Monday? Not sure I’m following you.


290 posted on 10/31/2020 3:20:08 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: Coop

Haha. I highly recommend that you do. By Tuesday night when I get home from working at my polling place, I will have moved on to Scotch.


291 posted on 10/31/2020 3:21:20 PM PDT by wireman
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To: Owen

Not in the bag yet. Way too many uncertainties and I wouldn’t compare it to 2016 as I think the enthusiasm gap is much larger this time. Last time it was the first woman President and she was more popular than Byedone. I think polling is way off.

I’m cautiously optimistic. Win in Florida and it’s basically game over. Trump will peel off one or more rust belt states and has a good shot at NV.


292 posted on 10/31/2020 3:23:15 PM PDT by Tuxedo (Let's Finish This)
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To: Coop

No those are opened Sunday

Bay and gulf only counties statewide opened Monday


293 posted on 10/31/2020 3:45:44 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: Coop

91,463.

Still moving backwards.

Should I root for 120k tomorrow so I win or Rs to make more headway?

Tough call.


294 posted on 10/31/2020 3:48:35 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: janetjanet998

Our work here at FR (well Speedy/Bort/Janet/ByeComey/LS, and others) and the Dems keeping track and they’ve sent out the alarm. They may be turning in extra mail in ballots, especially in Miami-Dade. My theory is that their reaction is impacting the numbers. They are reacting to our several days of good days. I’m not sure if everything is legitimate — if there are some on the ground in Florida, please help to make sure this election is fair.


295 posted on 10/31/2020 3:50:50 PM PDT by SarahPalin2012
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To: Coop; LS; Ravi; SpeedyInTexas; byecomey

According to TargetSmart, in Florida there are approximately 2 million early votes cast by those who did not vote in Florida in 2016. Almost 42% (856K) of these 2016 non-voters were whites without a college degree. College-educated whites make up another 20% of the 2016 non-voters.

That’s a stunning figure for a state that is turning “browner” every year. Gee, I wonder what’s prompting the turnout of working-class voters?


296 posted on 10/31/2020 3:50:55 PM PDT by bort
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To: janetjanet998

Perhaps many R voters would rather be enjoying the Halloween weekend with their families, than standing in a socially distanced voting line. They know they have 2 more days left to vote.


297 posted on 10/31/2020 3:53:28 PM PDT by rfp1234 (Caveat Emperor)
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To: janetjanet998

Well, that’s good news. Dems may make some gains tomorrow, but we might return the favor on Monday.


298 posted on 10/31/2020 3:54:19 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Tough call, but I’d rather make more headway.

It will be psychologically valuable to say D lead this year is less than 96k of 2016.


299 posted on 10/31/2020 3:54:34 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

That’s good of you to forfeit the cash prize for the good of our country. God bless you, sir!


300 posted on 10/31/2020 3:59:04 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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