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To: XRdsRev
> "In 2016 it was one of the few polls that showed a hidden Trump support that others were missing."

Uh-huh.

USC Dornsife election poll that made headlines in 2016 relaunches with changes
The Daybreak Poll got the 2016 presidential election outcome right, but for the wrong reasons.

https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/3295/2020-daybreak-poll-qna-with-jill-darling-survey-director

A poll that was right for the wrong reasons will be relaunched with changes that will make it wrong for the right reasons.

If you are letting your putter go wimpy on political polls, get professional help or develop statistical 'wisdom' but that development can take years and may never come if the acumen is lacking.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3884258/posts?page=64#64

109 posted on 09/15/2020 7:48:31 AM PDT by Hostage (Article V)
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To: Hostage

It is not an issue of putter gone wimpy. What I am interested in is information and trends. I do not put stock in any single poll other than to look at trends if they are applicable. My point was that in this poll which surveys a consistent group of people (including a pool of likely voters) over time, we are not seeing Trump gain any significant ground or Biden lose any significant ground (not moving below 50%). This is not 2016 where we can hope for a big last minute push in Trump’s favor. The battlefield has changed and I would feel more confident if we started seeing some real movement. The conventions are over and still this polling group shows basically no change, including their perceptions of how their friends and neighbors will vote. Trump is not unknown to voters this time and common perceptions of his performance regarding Covid has hurt him, especially among seniors. Peaking in the last week of October may have worked in previous elections but this year there will be an awful lot of ballots already cast by that time. I do expect Trump to win but I felt he had a much better chance in 2016 and given the crazy state of the country right now, nothing is certain.


159 posted on 09/15/2020 11:47:55 AM PDT by XRdsRev (Justice for Bernell Trammell, Trump supporter, murdered in 2020)
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