Posted on 09/15/2020 6:43:32 AM PDT by nwrep
Note: This is a poll by Scott Rasmussen, separate from and not aligned with Rasmussen Reports. The poll uses a highly optimistic turnout model assuming a 36-37 R-D split, which is the most favorable Republican model of any pollsters, assuming near parity with Dems.
The key findings:
Out of 941 likely voters polled, 48% said they would vote for Biden, while 43% would choose Trump. The president has lost one percentage point since a similar poll roughly two weeks ago, while Biden's share of the likely vote has remained the same.
"GOP voters seem more engaged and more likely to turn out. However, Biden has a bigger lead within his party (82 points) than Trump does in his (75 points). Biden has a modest lead among Independents."
The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Rasmussen using a mixed-mode approach from September 10-12. The sample included 941 Likely Voters, defined as those who say they are “definitely going to vote” or “very likely to vote” and who know how they will vote. The Likely Voter sample was 36% Republican, 37% Democrat and 27% Independent.
Hillary’s lead was way too high so this time they’re making it closer ,LOL
Sad. Spin this poll as you like, but Trump would have at least a 10 point lead in a healthy Republic given all that’s happening now. It shouldn’t even be close. (And what the heck is wrong with the 6% who are “not sure” how they’re going to vote with an election less than two months away?)
I think they mean that nobody is voting for Biden. I do think a lot of people will be voting for 'not Trump' though and they don't care who the other guy is so they won't come out to hear him speak.
In other words, his tiny crowds are not that important. This election is about Trump. If you love him, you vote for him. If you hate him you vote against him. Biden is just a dementia addled empty suit that they prop up on stage so you can vote 'not Trump'. And plenty of people will.
We aren’t going to win this time just because we won last time and Biden campaigning in Pennsylvania doesn’t mean he’s behind.
I hope you’re right but I have been watching presidential elections for a long time the candidate who drops off TV during the summer and lets his opposition define him has often lost. That happened to democrats many times in the past. Dukakis.
As I keep repeating the trump campaign director was changed and the new guy cut ads out because he decided the finances weren’t strong enough for the end of the campaign. Does that sound good to you having to cut back a presidential election ad campaign because you think you won’t have enough money? It was insanity.
If I recall the 2018 midterm results correctly, there were app. 20 congressional seats undecided on election night, and each one subsequently was decided in favor of the Ds. They'll do anything to win, while the Rs are mostly without backbone.
Does Biden sit in a white circle in his basement?
“Scared people don’t vote for the current administration”
It depends entirely on what they are scared of as to whom they will vote for. Does Trump scare them more than Antifa and their democrat backers? Does the border fence scare them more than illegal aliens?
It's oblong, around his couch where he naps.
Uh-huh.
USC Dornsife election poll that made headlines in 2016 relaunches with changes
The Daybreak Poll got the 2016 presidential election outcome right, but for the wrong reasons.
https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/3295/2020-daybreak-poll-qna-with-jill-darling-survey-director
A poll that was right for the wrong reasons will be relaunched with changes that will make it wrong for the right reasons.
If you are letting your putter go wimpy on political polls, get professional help or develop statistical 'wisdom' but that development can take years and may never come if the acumen is lacking.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3884258/posts?page=64#64
I have to suffer through Biden ads every morning while I watch the local news before heading off to work. I might get a Trump ad once or twice a week, but every day it’s multiple Biden ads within 30 minutes. Pretty mu h every commercial break features one Biden ad.
If this happens it would devastate Biden’s chances. The one thing a candidate for president does not want to do, is to be perceived as WEAK.
Biden is the one with a huge vulnerability His ads define him as strong and coherent but voters will see a different Biden on the debate stage.
And if Biden doesn't show up to debate he is done.
“Will change after the first debate if there is one.”
I have a question about the debates or lack of them. We all know dems and media people are advising Joe not to debate. If that happens, what would they do about the vice presidential debate. Would they cancel that, too? And if they don’t cancel it, won’t that be awkward. The republicans can say, “look only Harris is debating, she must be the real presidential candidate.”
So, I believe they would have to cancel all 4 debates.
So, with Biden ahead, democrats don’t need to take the day off to go vote
100 million are going to gasp all at once when Biden attempts to answer his first question.
Dornslife Daybreak made major changes to their polling. They double the amount of participants and have more urban participants while cutting back on the rural ones.
Why change a winning formula?
It didn’t work out well for Coke!
Even the ones burning down cities are not wildly enthusiastic for Biden, just the opposite in fact. They do not want a demented rich old man who has been in government for 48 years.
To me the pollsters and MSM know that showing trump with a lead of any size will drop TV ratings so we will see this continue up to the debates and then the game really begins .
Hi hi bnb
Biden is a scripted ad probably shot many times to show him in good shape.
The words are flowery BS with no substance and his VP is just glowing in her even being selected
Until they get really challenged, not by the moderators, but more frontal assault by Trump and Pence we won’t know the real picture of support.
Yes this is a don’t like Trump election vs a more capable person in Biden
I am eleventy billion years old and I have never ever seen anything remotely resembling the level of intense enthusiasm for a political candidate, not even close. Nationwide boat rallies, car rallies, flag waving rallies. Trump can throw a rally anywhere in the country on a moments notice and overflow a stadium. Trump could be lowered from an army helicopter unannounced in Central Park and have half of NYC and New Jersey there in an hour just to witness the worlds most epic troll against Nursing home Cuomo (please do this..that would guarantee a New York win). Nearly every police union, a good number of manufacturing unions have endorsed him, and it would appear he has finally cracked the black and Latino votes. Trump is ending wars, and spreading peace that I have never seen in my lifetime. I have never seen such energy and enthusiasm for any candidate. JoHo, on the other hand couldn’t fill a phone booth, has no energy or enthusiasm. Kameltoe is universally hated. Their voters are angry and vitriolic, and causing violence, destruction, the closing of businesses everywhere either through outright destruction or lockdowns which only purpose is to stop the orange man no matter who they hurt. Their minions seem to be starting forest fires. All for what? Because Trump is threatening Unelected billionaire bureaucrats from pilfering the endless tax dollar money fountains, and preventing cronies from profiting from world conflicts.
But with that practically immeasurable enthusiasm gap, we are supposed to believe JoHo is ahead without unprecedented fraud. They want us to feel their manufactured vote totals are expected, so when Biden gets (Trump Total) plus One Vote, it seems plausible because the population has been conditioned to expect a tight race
/rant off
“Which is late summer, when many a campaign has fallen behind by being defined by the opposition.”
You are trying to be just a bit too analytical. The opposition can’t define Trump because he has a four year record now. And, the opposition has already spent four years and countless money (most in free MSM contributions and efforts) trying to define Trump without much success.
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