Posted on 08/28/2020 12:18:00 PM PDT by knighthawk
President Trump is down in the polls, both nationally and in the bulk of the battleground states he would need to beat Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in November — but polling averages indicate that Trump may actually be in better shape in his race against Biden than he was at the same stage in his 2016 race against Hillary Clinton.
And some observers, including CNN anchor Jake Tapper, say they expect the 2020 race to tighten after the Republican National Convention (RNC) this week. While Tapper argued the convention presented a filtered and skewed view of Trump (of a president "not sending tweets that upset people"), he suggested it could help give the president an electoral bump. Other analysts came away with a similar prediction.
Trump's come-from-behind electoral win in 2016 took many by surprise despite the fact polls had tightened ahead of Election Day. While Trump was uniformly trailing, he was in many cases polling within the margin of error. That was not the case in late August of the 2016 race, when Clinton held a wide lead over Trump in battleground states like Wisconsin, where she led by more than 10 percentage points in late August. Now, Biden holds a 3.5 percentage point lead over Trump in Wisconsin in the RCP average, which registered its most recent polls on Sunday.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
They don’t have a clue because everyone quit talking to pollsters.
Only 46% approval at Rasmussen today. Weird.
Oops. Here’s the link.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug28
News casters in the news. I’d ramble about the decay of msm, but they have always been crap.
While Tapper argued the convention presented a filtered and skewed view of Trump (of a president “not sending tweets that upset people”), he suggested it could help give the president an electoral bump. Other analysts came away with a similar prediction.
What’s the point here? I assume Jake is ok that the Democrat convention presented a filtered and skewed view of Joe Biden.
Don’t we expect conventions to put their best foot forward, for whatever candidate they support?
What is he saying? That the convention showcased Trump? And is that bad?
Nothing like covering all bases, while at the same time providing the most negative spin on Trump's real chances.
...and Hillary still has a 92% chance of winning.
Why do these new agencies keep saying he’s behind in the polls? HE’S NOT BEHIND!
-—What’s the point here? I assume Jake is ok that the Democrat convention presented a filtered and skewed view of Joe Biden.
Don’t we expect conventions to put their best foot forward, for whatever candidate they support?
What is he saying? That the convention showcased Trump? And is that bad-—
Yes, the point is that everything that Trump does is bad, and if Biden does the same thing it’s either a good thing or it’s ignored.
This is what it looks like when you have an entire media industry completely in the tank for one political party. They’re Dem spin doctors, not journalists.
Joe announced he is finally getting out of the basement to campaign after Labor Day.
If Trump were really behind I suspect he would not be doing this.
“Joe announced he is finally getting out of the basement to campaign after Labor Day.”
If I recall, Hillary pretty much took August off as well. Over confident or hiding an unlikable, unfit candidate?
The link you posted is for Trumps day to day approval rating and it is NOT a head to head match up poll between the candidates.
That is here and Trump has picked up significant ground since the Dem Convention.
White House Watch
Biden, Trump In Near Tie
Wednesday, August 26, 2020
Joe Biden’s lost ground since the close of the Democratic National Convention, and he and President Trump are now running neck-and-neck in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey.
The new national telephone and online survey finds Biden with 46% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 45%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
A week ago, Biden led by four points – 48% to 44%. The former vice president has bested Trump in every weekly survey to date, but this week’s 46% is his lowest level of support in any survey.
The president has never earned more than 45% of the vote. It remains to be seen if he gets any kind of bounce from the ongoing Republican National Convention.
Fivethirtyeight says Biden as a 70% chance of beating Trump.
Look at what they said back in 2016 about Hillary’s chances:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
National polls don’t mean anything, because Biden has a huge lead in a few BIG blue states (CA, NY) that skew the national totals.
The fact that they have Trump close (and even leading) in a few traditionally blue, battleground states indicates Trump has a lead where it counts: in the Electoral college.
But, not reason to let up at this point. Getting overconfident and coasting to the finish line is the last thing we need to do.
I hang up on pollsters all the time whether phone or internet. Maybe libbies respond more IDK
Rasmussen does a rolling average show me his poll next week
Thus spake Oracle Fauci.
Which means he can’t possibly be trailing Biden.
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