Posted on 04/23/2020 7:21:18 AM PDT by grundle
The tests indicate that the number of infections in the county is around 40 times as high as the number of confirmed cases.
Preliminary results from antibody tests in Los Angeles County indicate that the true number of COVID-19 infections is much higher than the number of confirmed cases there, which implies that the fatality rate is much lower than the official tallies suggest. "The mortality rate now has dropped a lot," Barbara Ferrer, director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, said at a press briefing today. In contrast with the current crude case fatality rate of about 4.5 percent, she said, the study suggests that 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of people infected by the virus will die, which would make COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu.
Based on a representative sample of 863 adults tested early this month, researchers at the University of Southern California (USC), working in collaboration with the public health department, found that "approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus." Taking into account the statistical margin of error, the results indicate that "2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus—which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection." That is 28 to 55 times higher than the tally of confirmed cases at the time of the study.
As of noon today, Los Angeles County had reported 617 deaths out of 13,816 confirmed cases, which implies a fatality rate of 4.5 percent. Based on that death toll, the new study suggests the true fatality rate among everyone infected by the virus is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent (without taking into account people infected since the study was conducted). The lower end of that range is about the same as the estimated fatality rate for the seasonal flu.
"These results indicate that many persons may have been unknowingly infected and at risk of transmitting the virus to others," Ferrer said in a press release. "These findings underscore the importance of expanded polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing to diagnose those with infection so they can be isolated and quarantined, while also maintaining the broad social distancing interventions."
Since the number of infections in Los Angeles County is much higher than the official numbers indicate, Ferrer said at the press briefing, the risk of infection is correspondingly higher, which reinforces the case for social distancing measures. At the same time, she said, the fact that 95 percent or so of the county's adult population remains uninfected shows those measures, including the statewide lockdown, are working. She also acknowledged that the revised estimate of the fatality rate, which is dramatically lower than many people feared, is good news for residents who are infected despite those precautions.
"The fatality rate is lower than we thought it would be," said Neeraj Sood, the USC public policy professor who oversaw the study. But he also emphasized that "we are very early in the epidemic," meaning the number of infections and the death toll are bound to rise.
Sood addressed two of the methodological concerns that were raised by a recent study of Santa Clara County residents, which likewise estimated that the COVID-19 fatality rate is not far from the rate for the flu. Critics of that study suggested it may have been undermined by biased sampling and false-positive antibody test results.
The sample for the Los Angeles County study, Sood said, was randomly drawn from a database maintained by the LRW Group, a market research firm. The researchers capped subjects representing specific demographic groups so the sample would reflect the county's adult population.
As for the accuracy of the antibody tests, Sood said validation by the manufacturer of the test kits, Premier Biotech, found a false positive rate of 0.5 percent in 371 samples. In subsequent tests by a Stanford laboratory, there were no false positives. "We think that the false positive rate of the tests is really low," Sood said.
While Ferrer portrayed the study as proof of the need for aggressive control measures, a fatality rate as low as the Los Angeles County and Santa Clara County tests suggest also changes the calculus of those policies' costs and benefits. If COVID-19 really is only a bit more lethal than the seasonal flu, the benefits that can be expected from continued lockdowns, in terms of deaths prevented, are much lower than most projections assumed. If these results are confirmed, they should play an important role in discussions about when and how to reopen the economy.
I typed it wrong.
0.1 x 10,000,000 = 1,000,000 dead.
Don’t get why so many here hate facts.
Is that 0.1 percent? In that case it’s...
0.001 x 10,000,000 = 10,000
Reporters know it; “””No, That White House Press Room ‘Hot Mic’ Revealing COVID-19 Stats Wasn’t a Conspiracy. It Wasn’t Even Fake News”””
https://pjmedia.com/trending/no-that-white-house-press-room-hot-mic-revealing-covid-19-stats-wasnt-a-conspiracy-it-wasnt-even-fake-news/
Roberts: You can take off your mask, the case mortality rate is like 0.1 to 0.3.
Masked man: Really? That’s reassuring.
Roberts: USC and LA County Health came out with a study. They found that there are 7,000 [sic] cases in California, but they really believe that there are anywhere from 221,000 to 442,000 people who have been infected.So it suggests that case mortality is about a tenth of what we thought it seems to be.
Masked man: So it was a hoax?
Roberts: No, I don’t believe it was a hoax.
Check the headline sport. I typed .01 instead of the correct number 0.1.
I confess to being human.
It isn’t twice as contagious. There is no evidence that when exposed you will contract this virus more easily than any other virus. It spreads faster because it is a very mild virus for most people so that they do not even know they have it. But the spread slows as more people are exposed and contract it.
The seasonal flues have been around so long that many people already have immunity which slows the spread.
Once a majority of us have had Corona the spread slows way down.
In the past I thought you seemed like an interesting man but you are pathetic and pitiful. You really need to grow up.
And beside that, true colors really come out when you ask how old people are or how sick when they contract this virus and die.
You either care about life or you don’t. I don’t want you in my corner when the chips are down.
I hope you are very correct. From what I have read it seems to be twice as contagious. But right about now I really don’t know who I trust.
Go back to math class, Bro.
.1% is .001.
Testing is still very hard to come by. I think it’s mostly people sick enough to go to the hospital who get tested. There are a lot of people toughing it out on their own who never get tested, and never head to the hospital.
For those that need to work and aren’t afraid of the virus, meat packing plants need workers now. They are closing down right and left, AND not because of the government, but because of large-scale infections among the employees.
Partial list ....
Outbreaks in Packing plants with reported number of cases of COVID-19 among employees:
Smithfield Foods pork processing facility — Sioux Falls, S.D. 989
JBS USA meatpacking plant — Grand Island, Neb. 230
Tyson Foods meatpacking plant — Waterloo, Iowa 180
Tyson Foods meatpacking plant — Columbus Junction, Iowa 166
JBS meatpacking plant — Greeley, Colo. 102
Tyson Foods plant — Goodlettsville, Tenn. 90
Tyson Foods meatpacking plant — Wallula, Wash. 81
AbiMar Foods — Abilene, Texas 48
Tyson Foods plant — Emporia , Kan. 48
JBS pork production facility — Worthington, Minn. 31
Hormel’s Rochelle Foods facility — Rochelle, Ill. 24
ConAgra food supply plant — Marshall, Mo. 20
Everyone will be exposed to it at some point. The Spanish flu didn’t end because people wore cloth masks. It ended because everyone got exposed and gained immunity to it.
Like ALL viruses, people gain immunity by being exposed, so it is important to recognize the illness and treat the symptoms quickly.
“But approx. twice as contagious.”
Not according to the flu numbers. Both are virulent and it would be difficult to say which one infects quicker or easier.
I obviously don’t hate facts — I pointed out an error in your hypothetical. It was a typo; I don’t have an issue with that.
That said, it is still incorrect, because the multiplicand should be 0.1 percent, not 0.1. Ten million times 0.1 percent is 10,000, not 1 million — now off by two orders of magnitude.
If you’re multiplying by 0.1, then you are saying the mortality rate is 10%. If you’re multiplying by 0.01, then you are saying the mortality rate is 1%. If the mortality rate is 0.1%, then you must multiply by 0.001 to determine the projected deaths. So 10,000,000 x 0.001 = 10,000. You’re correct, we’re all human and some humans are better at math than others.
Math is not your forte.
“Like ALL viruses, people gain immunity by being exposed..”
Maybe in the 16th century.
many people get immunizations (vaccines) for flu, small pox, typhoid, whopping cough, etc.
cant do that yet for Covid
bkmk
“Maybe in the 16th century.”
No, Sunshine, we still get immunity through exposure. Immunizations are also another form of exposure.
To try to claim biological processes are somehow more sophisticated now means you really need to take a microbiology class.
“And beside that, true colors really come out when you ask how old people are or how sick when they contract this virus and die.”
But these are vital questions. We’ve killed our economy for a virus whose death rate targets two key groups: the elderly and those with comorbidities. We’ve locked everyone down and spread our limited resources everywhere instead of taking a more targeted approach.
I cut our leaders slack for not knowing all of this when we started — but we know it now, and it’s time to apply what we’ve learned. The vulnerable carry on sheltering, the less vulnerable return to business using social distancing and sanitation methods.
The democrats want more dead so they can keep people locked in their homes and unemployed.
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