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L.A. County Antibody Tests Suggest the Fatality Rate for COVID-19 Is Much Lower Than People Feared ["the study suggests that 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of people infected by the virus will die.. only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu"]
Reason ^ | April 20, 2020 | Jacob Sullum

Posted on 04/23/2020 7:21:18 AM PDT by grundle

The tests indicate that the number of infections in the county is around 40 times as high as the number of confirmed cases.

Preliminary results from antibody tests in Los Angeles County indicate that the true number of COVID-19 infections is much higher than the number of confirmed cases there, which implies that the fatality rate is much lower than the official tallies suggest. "The mortality rate now has dropped a lot," Barbara Ferrer, director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, said at a press briefing today. In contrast with the current crude case fatality rate of about 4.5 percent, she said, the study suggests that 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of people infected by the virus will die, which would make COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu.

Based on a representative sample of 863 adults tested early this month, researchers at the University of Southern California (USC), working in collaboration with the public health department, found that "approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus." Taking into account the statistical margin of error, the results indicate that "2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus—which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection." That is 28 to 55 times higher than the tally of confirmed cases at the time of the study.

As of noon today, Los Angeles County had reported 617 deaths out of 13,816 confirmed cases, which implies a fatality rate of 4.5 percent. Based on that death toll, the new study suggests the true fatality rate among everyone infected by the virus is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent (without taking into account people infected since the study was conducted). The lower end of that range is about the same as the estimated fatality rate for the seasonal flu.

"These results indicate that many persons may have been unknowingly infected and at risk of transmitting the virus to others," Ferrer said in a press release. "These findings underscore the importance of expanded polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing to diagnose those with infection so they can be isolated and quarantined, while also maintaining the broad social distancing interventions."

Since the number of infections in Los Angeles County is much higher than the official numbers indicate, Ferrer said at the press briefing, the risk of infection is correspondingly higher, which reinforces the case for social distancing measures. At the same time, she said, the fact that 95 percent or so of the county's adult population remains uninfected shows those measures, including the statewide lockdown, are working. She also acknowledged that the revised estimate of the fatality rate, which is dramatically lower than many people feared, is good news for residents who are infected despite those precautions.

"The fatality rate is lower than we thought it would be," said Neeraj Sood, the USC public policy professor who oversaw the study. But he also emphasized that "we are very early in the epidemic," meaning the number of infections and the death toll are bound to rise.

Sood addressed two of the methodological concerns that were raised by a recent study of Santa Clara County residents, which likewise estimated that the COVID-19 fatality rate is not far from the rate for the flu. Critics of that study suggested it may have been undermined by biased sampling and false-positive antibody test results.

The sample for the Los Angeles County study, Sood said, was randomly drawn from a database maintained by the LRW Group, a market research firm. The researchers capped subjects representing specific demographic groups so the sample would reflect the county's adult population.

As for the accuracy of the antibody tests, Sood said validation by the manufacturer of the test kits, Premier Biotech, found a false positive rate of 0.5 percent in 371 samples. In subsequent tests by a Stanford laboratory, there were no false positives. "We think that the false positive rate of the tests is really low," Sood said.

While Ferrer portrayed the study as proof of the need for aggressive control measures, a fatality rate as low as the Los Angeles County and Santa Clara County tests suggest also changes the calculus of those policies' costs and benefits. If COVID-19 really is only a bit more lethal than the seasonal flu, the benefits that can be expected from continued lockdowns, in terms of deaths prevented, are much lower than most projections assumed. If these results are confirmed, they should play an important role in discussions about when and how to reopen the economy.


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: chinavirusmortality
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1 posted on 04/23/2020 7:21:18 AM PDT by grundle
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To: grundle

COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu.


2 posted on 04/23/2020 7:25:19 AM PDT by eyeamok
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To: grundle

I think all of these studies (LA, Santa Clara) are great news showing the actual mortality rate is so low. I am not worried about getting it- I am healthy and have no co-morbidities- but I still think it’s kind of creepy. I have 2 friends who had it. They were both pretty sick but on par with having the flu. The scary part is neither has regained his sense of smell. I can’t imagine losing taste and/or smell! Someone reported that eating pizza was like biting into cardboard. Terrible!


3 posted on 04/23/2020 7:26:22 AM PDT by luv2ski
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To: grundle

All the info about Covid19: being asymptomatic, very contagious, stays in surfaces, you get it when peoole sneeze or cough on you are ALL characteristics of most illnesses, especially the COMMON COLD. The main difference is the violence of Covid.2

The health care people used the ignorance if the citizenry to spread fear.


4 posted on 04/23/2020 7:27:21 AM PDT by madison10 (Wash your hands & say your prayers cause Jesus & germs are everywhere)
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To: grundle

Bro? :)


5 posted on 04/23/2020 7:27:44 AM PDT by aynrandfreak (Being a Democrat means never having to say you're sorry)
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To: aynrandfreak

An economy shattered over this.

But the good thing is we found out who (here and everywhere else) is a real, tough, independent minded conservative and who should be wearing a dress. :)


6 posted on 04/23/2020 7:33:35 AM PDT by dp0622 (Radicals, racists dont point fingers at me I'm a small town white boy Just tryin to make ends meet)
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To: grundle

Sassshhhh. This cannot get out.


7 posted on 04/23/2020 7:35:32 AM PDT by dhs12345
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To: eyeamok

COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu.

“”””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””

But approx. twice as contagious.

10,000,000 people get it you have .01 x 10,000,000 dead. That’s one million.


8 posted on 04/23/2020 7:36:49 AM PDT by bramps (It's the Islam, stupid!)
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To: grundle

Los Angeles probably had a very high rate of infection in December 2019 as main Chinese visited relatives in Los Angeles’ very large Chinese community at that time. (We forget that all the major Chinese airlines have direct flights from China to Los Angeles.)


9 posted on 04/23/2020 7:37:03 AM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's Economic Cure)
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To: dp0622

...and who should be wearing a dress. LOLOL!


10 posted on 04/23/2020 7:37:17 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (Yehovah saved more animals than people on the ark...siameserescue.org)
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To: bramps

bro put on a dress and assume the identity you’ve always wanted

sick of not calling a spade a spade

you and other faggots DESTROYED this country. Why you and other are even on this site i don’t know but you’re all disgraces.

STILL spouting bullsh.t

how OLD would these people be or HOW SICK???

and was it wroth losing freedom, the economy and God knows what else long term.

Faggots and fruits.

This is FR not FF


11 posted on 04/23/2020 7:41:16 AM PDT by dp0622 (Radicals, racists dont point fingers at me I'm a small town white boy Just tryin to make ends meet)
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To: grundle
While Ferrer portrayed the study as proof of the need for aggressive control measures, a fatality rate as low as the Los Angeles County and Santa Clara County tests suggest also changes the calculus of those policies' costs and benefits.

Well..duh. The greatest, most successful Republic known to mankind has been tossed onto the ash heap of history because of a socialist fear campaign. We, the cringing remnants of that once mighty country, have no one to blame but our cowardly selves.

So often, at this site and others, brave conservatives vowed to initiate CWII when the overreach of the communist, DC swamp breached the walls of the Constitution and enslaved the citizens. Well, the word went out to shackle ourselves to our bedposts, and we meekly obliged.

Meh

12 posted on 04/23/2020 7:44:01 AM PDT by Thommas
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To: grundle

The fatality rate must be based on confirmed cases, anything else is BS. For the U.S its now 5.4%

It simply means that 5.4% of those with confirmed infections will die.

Its a highly infectious disease that came out of a Chinese military weapons lab. The issue should be getting medicines, tests, and other medical supplies out to the public ASOP, rather than denial.


13 posted on 04/23/2020 7:45:50 AM PDT by Swirl
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To: bramps

10 million times 0.01 is 100,000. You’re off by an order of magnitude, like the models that got us here.


14 posted on 04/23/2020 7:45:56 AM PDT by FoxInSocks ("Hope is not a course of action." -- M. O'Neal, USMC)
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To: madison10

IMHO, I think that we will find out that officials overplayed their hands...and at what cist?


15 posted on 04/23/2020 7:47:49 AM PDT by dhs12345
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To: bramps
10,000,000 people get it you have .01 x 10,000,000 dead. That’s one million.

Sport, you may want to check your math. My feeble 6th grade multiplication gives me a result of 100,000. Yes?

16 posted on 04/23/2020 7:49:42 AM PDT by Thommas
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To: Swirl

No, I don’t think that that is correct. Or maybe I am misunderstanding you.

I think that a huge number of people had it, had little or now symptoms, >were not tested for it< and recovered and important! — were not counted in the statistics.

Here the way to look at it.

If 5 people out of 100 died then that is a 5% mortality rate. Where did the 100 of infected people number come from? From people who just so happens, happen chance?, were tested for it. Probably because the had symptoms and suspected that they might have it. Or other reasons.

Now, if that 100 number is actually 1000 or 900 people were exposed but weren’t tested then the mortality rate drops by 10.

The mortality rate becomes 0.5%. A significantly less number.


17 posted on 04/23/2020 7:57:28 AM PDT by dhs12345
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To: dhs12345

Maybe a huge number have had it, that would only mean its even more infectious that we currently think.

The fatality rate is based on confirmed case, not hypothetical guesses as to how many people might have COVID 19.


18 posted on 04/23/2020 8:02:37 AM PDT by Swirl
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To: FoxInSocks

I typed it wrong.

0.1 x 10,000,000 = 1,000,000 dead.

Don’t get why so many here hate facts.


19 posted on 04/23/2020 8:02:50 AM PDT by bramps (It's the Islam, stupid!)
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To: bramps

Yes, one million dead. I’ll accept it as true for the sake of argument.

Guess what? You are not going to stop that from happening. You cannot physically stop it from spreading. It’s going to run its course. All we are doing is slowing it down, at the price of destroying our country. We will wind up with a dead economy and your one million dead anyway.

Let’s get it over with.


20 posted on 04/23/2020 8:04:34 AM PDT by henkster ("We can always fool the foreigner" - Chinese Proverb)
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