Does this look like exponential growth to anyone?
Posted on 02/11/2020 8:50:15 PM PST by dangus
Several days ago, I proposed that China's big lie regarding the Coronavirus wasn't downplaying its contagiousness or deadliness, but the opposite: because the Coronavirus had run rampant through Hubei before they acknowledged it, they were under-reporting cases, and therefore the death rate looked so much worse. And because they had failed to distinguish the Coronavirus from the flu, many cases where people got the Coronavirus despite strong preventitive measures were actually cases where they had been exposed much earlier to "flu."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
Whatever the reasons, I identified the Coronavirus as in decline, despite the hysterics of the media... at least according to official statistics from China, which other health organizations seem wont to find credible. I suppose this credibility comes from the fact that we're seeing data similar to China outside Hubei in the rest of the world.
For instance, in Hubei, the death rate is about 2 1/2%. It's a fraction of 1% outside Hubei, and only 2 people out of 513 cases internationally have died.
Meanwhile, the declining rate of NEW infections now includes Hubei. I emphasize that I'm talking about the rate of NEW infections, because so many FReepers have tried to contradict me by pointing out the increase in the cumulative number of cases. The cumulative number will ALWAYS increase until the disease is completely eradicated. My point is that the disease is spreading more slowly, and behaving less and less like an epidemic.
The number of cases outside Hubei peaked at 889 a week ago, and has been steadily collapsing since: 731... 707... 682... 554... 507,,, 431... 381. The peak INSIDE Hubei was a few days later, topping out at 3,156, but now down to 2,097. The number of cases OUTSIDE of Hubei spiked just yesterday, but that was largely because they began testing everyone stuck on a quarrantined cruise ship.
Also a noteworthy sign of relative control: the number of current confirmed cases plus suspected cases has now actually dropped yesterday. That's right: there are fewer people THOUGHT to have the Coronavirus yesterday than there were the day before.
As Coronavirus withers away, is Hubei revealed as China's dirty little secret? http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3814088/posts
Coronavirus exiting exponential growth phase ALREADY? (Jan 29... yes, Jan. 29!) http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3812158/posts
Does this look like exponential growth to anyone?
Does this look like exponential growth to anyone?
You can’t post links, without coding, in your first reply post, The links you posted aren’t clickable.
Are you agreeing with China’s *news* and numbers?
Wikipedia as a source? I don’t think so.
China has ordered the factories reopened. They’ve relaxed regulations on cities with factories even as they tighten them on cities that don’t have a lot of factories.
There is speculation that China’s numbers would show moderation to support their decision to reopen the factories.
China also apparently told hospitals not to count people who tested positive but didn’t have symptoms as confirmed cases.
Hospitals are retroactively adjusting their counts. So what appears as a decline in cases may actually be an accounting adjustment to meet the new definition. And those adjustments may take place over a number of days.
It is encouraging that we haven’t seen many deaths outside of China. Some of the successes using drugs may be playing into that.
THere are no health systems outside of China being overburdened yet, so patients can get intensive care.
.
>> Hospitals are retroactively adjusting their counts. So what appears as a decline in cases may actually be an accounting adjustment to meet the new definition. And those adjustments may take place over a number of days. <<
No. I’ve been watching the totals each day. Previous days’ totals are not dropping, and there has been a gradual and accelerating decline; the exponential graph looks roughly like a nice rounding curve.
“You can’t post links, without coding, in your first reply post, The links you posted aren’t clickable.”
Just highlight the link, right click on it, and you can choose to go to the address.
They’re citing sources, and from what I sample, they check out. I just don’t read Chinese, I’m just letting Wikipedia do the grunt work.
>> Are you agreeing with China’s *news* and numbers? <<
Can you read the first sentence of an article before commenting?
Couldn’t get an actual news source because not ever our garbage media will touch this fake news out of China.
According to the CCP. And wikipedia.
I agree.
China did change their calculation method, to NOT count people who did not have symptoms, but who tested positive for the virus.
FAR too early to claim this disease is being defeated.
Friends don’t let friends use Wikipedia. Just say’n.
>> According to the CCP. And wikipedia. <<
The alternative: After covering up the disease, China becomes more open (how much more open we don’t know) to a point, and then decides to cover up the disease again. But to make it look good this time, they decide to undo all the aggressive measures to prevent its spread.
Yeah... I don’t trust China one whit, but the alternative makes no sense.
They may not be restating previous days totals. The restatement may only be showing up in the new daily stat. That would appear to be a decline in the daily growth, when in fact it could still be growing stronger than ever.
I hope it is in decline.
They may not be restating previous days totals. The restatement may only be showing up in the new daily stat. That would appear to be a decline in the daily growth, when in fact it could still be growing stronger than ever.
I hope it is in decline.
>> China did change their calculation method, to NOT count people who did not have symptoms, but who tested positive for the virus. <<
Also note the decline in the number of suspected cases mentioned in the article.
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