Posted on 12/21/2018 5:16:50 PM PST by bobsunshine
Ancient Egypt ruled up and down the Levant. The Persians/Babylonians (Iran) held all the way to Egypt. The Syrians (Assyrians) held it. And the Romans did, and Atilla the Hun did too.
Some irony in that this region is still so important. During the Bronze age (apx 3000-5000 years ago) there was no empire but a lot of trade. The most important trade to the countries, for their armies, was Copper and Tin which when smelted together made the bronze swords and shields and armor. Copper came mostly from Cyprus and Tin from Afghanistan areas. Later, spices, foods, wool & cotton, gold & silver, livestock etc all traded. If you know your geography you know that the trade routes naturally ended up with the Levant (now Israel mostly) being a sort of central hub.
There were no real empires (as we think of them now) in the Bronze age. You just had a lot of trade. From the Berbers (Morocco) to the Hittites (Syria) to the Greeks - all around the Mediterranean - they traded goods and prospered. There were of course wars. We know the ancient Greeks and Spartans were independent confederations not really a cohesive political leadership. And we know that various tribes made allied treaties of defense and conquest. But for the most part this region flourished through trade.
Today, religious and ethnic tribalism plays a bigger part. The Turks hate the Armenians and Kurds, and fear they will lose land to a Kurdish state. The Shia and the Sunni war over what we would consider small religious disputes like praying at grave sites and lighting candles (which, ironically, the Israelites also argued about which is why some groups moved to the desert and we found their dead sea scrolls listing their greivances).
But for the life of me I don't know what business Saudi Arabia has installing troops in Syria. Ostensibly to support the Kurds. And maybe we see something of Trumps "deal of the century" revealing itself. He wants a big peace plan to encompass the whole enchilada falafel, from Israel-Palestinian to Kurds to who knows how far reaching it will be.
Like many I am astonished that the left is reacting negatively to troop withdrawals. This is what they elected Obama to do. Instead Obama mucked it all up with his regime change and Iranian sycophancy. We should be out of Syria and the smart player he is Trump slow rolled his plan to embarrass his opponents. They cried about pulling troops out of Syria and now we know his plan is bigger than the day to day announcements. These people hate Trump so much they just rail against him no matter what. They give him zero credit and I can list many things they should have given him much kudos for doing.
Anyway, let's see how it plays out. Mattis, at Trump's orders, gave the Saudis a 30 day deadline for cease fire in Yemen. That war is a huge mess btw, so he is right imo. Yemen doesn't matter. Iran is going to get distracted elsewhere now and besides, a pro-Iran government in Yemen that is not openly hostile is not the top priority.
I have some thoughts on how things might be proposed in his "deal of the century" but don't want to jump the gun. Let's see how it shakes out. One thing for sure, Trump 2020 re-election campaign is underway and imo he is finally starting to make the right moves (again).
Trump made another smart move...let them handle the issue and/or send NATO troops over there.......make them pay the bill.
I agree with our President that we should disengage and choose different methods to influence that region.
You are incorrect about Yemen: control of Yemen means control of the Suez Canal - which means the main supply line to Europe is severed - and brackets the Saudis and Egypt. Iran knows what it has been doing and we have to help find some way to solve this. The Saudis have been doing a horrible job of it.
Yemen has had an interesting although rather underappreciated role in international affairs over the centuries. As you say, control of Suez and the Red Sea is important. I don’t have the impression that SA is doing much in Yemen with ground troops. Is that true? Engaging in Syria would certainly give their military a different kind of experience than just bombing cities in Yemen.
From reading Simon Winchester’s book Krakatoa, I could see the subtle influence Yemen had in Islamic affairs. After the Haj to Mecca, Indonesian Muslims went to Yemen where training and preparation was made for rousing Muslims in Indonesia to overthrow the Dutch because the volcano showed that “God” no longer supported them. I wonder how many other Muslim related international situations have had a genesis or an assist from Muslim forces residing in Yemen. More info would be good. If, in fact, agitators have been traveling from the Haj in SA to receive training and advice in Yemen, this would certainly help explain their interest in controlling Yemen.
There were at least 2 pretty major wars over the Suez. There is no way that Yemen is going to get away with any kind of blockades no matter how much support they get from Iran.
As for Yemen, perhaps my dismissiveness in the post has to do with my great distaste for the war SA has been waging there, with our support. I get it, I understand the basic issues at hand. But it’s been barbaric. I am glad Trump told the Saudis to knock it off. The 5th fleet will take care of the Canal if Yemen were to try anything, and iirc I believe part of the 7th fleet is stationed across the strait in Djibouti along with a squadron of F-15s and other attack craft.
Yeah I do tend to write longer. I type fast, and throw a lot of stuff into some posts to get a reaction from someone - anyone! LOL. In my 20th Year of the Freep, where has the time gone?
I get the same impression about Saudi ground forces. I sometimes joke to myself when I read about Saudi military intervention and wonder if their armed forces aren’t made up of Philippine and Pakistani migrants. Perhaps its just a stereotype but the stereotype does exist that Saudis live a subsidized lifestyle and the backbone work in the country is done by immigrants.
You don’t mafter
Once again, agree with most everything you wrote - except Yemen’s strategic position. If Yemen, with Iran’s support, mines the straits, and/or positions antiship missile batteries, the Suez Canal is effectively blocked and Europe is cut off from the Persian Gulf and points east.
No oil, no military power - which would be potentially fatal in a fast-moving war with Iran or Russia. Never dismiss a small, primitive country in a strategic position.
I realize countries don't always act rationally but the only reasons I can think of for Yemen to try such a thing would be either a) a cry for help (e.g. let us smash them to bits then beg for aid) or b) the Iranians play them for bigger fools than they have been already. I say they got way too many problems already to pull such a stunt. But if they did, we can deal with it. Anyway the point was, for now at least, Trump is playing a hand and Yemen probably is a factor but not a danger since Trump is the one who demanded the cease-fire. Clearly there is a diplomatic opening and I don't see the Yemen government pulling a Hirohito on us even if they are an Iranian puppet. Meanwhile it is clear Trump is going after the puppeteer.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly... told Abbas he has two months to either accept the Saudi proposal or leave office to make way for a new Palestinian leader... It reportedly proposes the establishment of limited Palestinian sovereignty over small portions of Judea and Samaria. The Gaza Strip, over which the Palestinians have had full sovereignty since Israel pulled its military forces and civilians out in 2005, would be expanded into the northern Sinai, thus providing economic and territorial viability to the envisioned Palestinian state... able to establish their capital in the Jerusalem suburb of Abu Dis.
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If the author's take is correct this coordination has been awhile in the planning. I'm a bit surprised it didn't leak, but if true very pleased that there was a well planned exit, with replacement boots on the ground as we leave. Presuming they author is correct.
First of all I’m skeptical that troops have actually arrived on the scene. Perhaps the Turks are a bit ahead of reality with this story.
Secondly, it occurs to me this ploy could be intended to incentivize Assad to strike a deal with the Kurds and keep those Sunni forces out of Syria.
The Kurds will be incentivized to deal with Assad by the reality of the US pullout. Trump realizes that if you want things to change, you have to create incentives for change.
Is this universal, or are we mostly talking about Afghanistan?
It isn't.
“Is this universal, or are we mostly talking about Afghanistan?”
I’m talking about just every army in the world outside of the United States.
I fully recognize American superiority in every aspect, including how our military treats those around them.
The US Military is the best not because of funding, but because it is fully staffed by Americans.
Our President does not telegraph his punches.
So you're suggesting the article is wrong, there is no strategy here, the President just decided to withdraw our troops coincidentally at a time the Saudis were sending troops. Not replacements, they didn't know we were withdrawing. Perhaps you're correct, I doubt it, but if you are, I wouldn't want him covering my back.
Why in the hell would the Saudis, who funded and supported Osama bin Laden and the 9/11 attack on our country be our man? What Bushy level BS IS THIS!?
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