Posted on 10/25/2018 9:15:16 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
.........When it comes to the generic-ballot results, however, location matters. Where Democrats dominate, their lead is understandably massive 30 points, in fact. But in the battleground districts where Democrats expect to pick up seats, that lead evaporates, turning into a five point lead for Republicans, 49/44:
Democratic candidates are preferred by a 30 point margin (60% to 30%) in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 15 point margin (55% to 40%) in Republican-held districts. In the 11 California districts deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report, likely voters are divided (49% Republican candidate, 44% Democratic candidate). (Nine of these seats are currently held by Republicans; for more information see page 22). The Democratic candidate is preferred by large margins in Los Angeles (62% to 30%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (60% to 28%), and by narrower margins in Orange/San Diego (53% to 42%). The Republican candidate is preferred by narrower margins in the Inland Empire (50% to 45%); those in the Central Valley (47% Democratic candidate, 46% Republican candidate) are divided.
Thats not the only contraindication to the wave, either. When voters are asked in these competitive House districts whether they want cooperation or confrontation with Donald Trump, they choose cooperation by 22 points, 59/37. Even when asked across the entire state, voters almost evenly split on the question, 45/48 in favor of confrontation. A majority of independents across the state favor cooperation, 51/41. That cuts directly across the Democrats message in his election cycle that the House needs to check the Trump agenda, both through legislation and through investigations.
The GOP lead in battleground districts follows similar national polling from the Washington Post/ABC and NBC/WSJ series. It suggests that the overall generic ballot may be even more representative than usual of Democratic strongholds, while battleground districts might be tilting back to the GOP. Granted, theyd have to tilt significantly over the next dozen days for Republicans to hold the House majority, but its not out of the question, either. At the very least, these polls indicate that the wave may be more of a big ripple when it finally hits on Election Day.
Nice...real nice:) You people have been through hell with how that state is run. I keep telling people here in Florida that Gillam will run the state just like California.
If youre tired of winning, vote Democrat. I see no indication yet the American people are tired of winning! :)
The election wont be legit because republicans would have bombed the democrat candidates in the street - they arent being allowed to get their message out for fear of right wing violence - oh, and the NRA. /s
Right now, the GOP may hold the house with a 5-10 person threshold, if some of the other polls are saying so.
You know it’s bad news for Democrats because Nate Plastic and NYT’s Nate Cohn are trying to keep the NPC crowd from panicking on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1055646961657937920
“Ladies and Gentlemen .... I present to you the magic of - Gerrymandering!!
To our Democrat friends (who kept a MASSIVE House majority despite polling 0.5% less of the total House votes than the GOP did in 1984) Id like to say:
How do you like it NOW?”
Dems had no problems with gerrymandering as long as the Burtons were drawing the districts.
just like they had no problems with small farm states getting two senators, when they were all Democrat.
I think the Republicans will win all of these.
Many people are scared to tell a pollster what they think for fear of being doxed and lie or fudge the truth.
Others, primarily conservatives simply refuse to answer polls.
I think you can ad 2 to 5 percent to the republican totals presented in most of these polls.
The 7 or 8 “battleground” congressional districts (10, 21, 25, 39, 45, 48, 49, and maybe 50) in California are the ones held by Republican incumbents (or retiring Republicans) which Democrats are trying to flip in order to retake the House. It would be extremely difficult for the Democrats to win the House without at least some of those seats flipping. So all the Republicans need to do is play defense and hold what they have.
At the moment the Republicans appear to be way ahead in returned absentee ballots for every one of those districts, and pulling further ahead every day. (Only District 10 is close.) Just go to https://www.politicaldata.com/absentee-vote-tracker/ to see for yourself. Use the pull-down menu to select a district number. It will show a graph of the returned absentee ballots, day by day, broken out by Democrat, Republican, and “other” registrations. More importantly, it shows the number and percent of absentee ballots requested by each party, and the number and percent of ballots returned. The Republican percentage of returned ballots is much higher that their percentage of requested ballots, while the Democrat percentage is about the same or significantly lower. “Other” is much lower in returned ballots.
What this says is that Republican enthusiasm in those districts is almost off the charts, while Democrat enthusiasm is mediocre or lagging. Furthermore, the Republican lead in actual votes (presuming that most Republicans and Democrats vote along party lines) is growing daily. By election day the Republican candidates will have almost insurmountable leads in absolute votes. And that ignores the fact that in California the election-day Republican vote percentages in Republican districts often equal or exceed the absentee ballot percentages. So election-day voting will probably increase those leads rather than reverse them.
Democrats dominate California, but through previous gerrymandering they’ve already pretty much maxed out the number of Congressional seats they can win. Based on actual and projected returned absentee ballots, there’s not going to be any “blue wave” in California to further diminish Republican seats.
Actually the Democrats got 52.1% of the popular vote for the 1984 House races.
_House_of_Representativeshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_1984
It is one thing for the pubs to pick up a senate seat in the red states of MO and ND, but is not the same when competing to retain pub house seats in blue states like NJ, NY and CA. There are 5 seats at risk just in CA. I could go on. Don't compare the two - they are completely different.
Thank you, o Googling one. ;>)
I relied on my fallible memory which is imperfect - even in a historian - (thank you for that insight, Scott Adams).
I should have known to consult the great god Google for something so statistically well-catalogued ...
... the Dems won 58% of the seats with 52% of the vote ... the really interesting thing is the map ... the South was almost solid Blue (Dem), the West Red (GOP) ... funny how things shifted in just 34 years ...
.... while I’m reminiscing about 1984 ... back then I had both versions of the “Reagan-Bush 84” bumper stickers on my car - in NJ of all places... RWR won 49 states ... I won’t put a Trump sticker on my car here in CA in 2020, though ... too many nuts around ... and no concealed carry law ;>)
Exactly!
There is no fraud in calif. they figure it is so Democrat they don’t need it.
It's too bad Edgar Cayce was wrong. ;^)
True. As bad as the RINO dominance in the GOP is today, it was much worse in the 80’s. Leaders like Bob Michel and Howard Baker didn’t exactly inspire change for a stronger party.
Trump’s hostile takeover of the Republican Party will be complete if we manage to hold the House and expand the Senate majority. While Ryan and some forty other swamp rats threw in the towel and bailed, the President will have by sheer force of will do what all the learned pontificators thought imposible...again.
A whole lot of Dear Diary responses to Nates tweet. LMAO.
“Verkakte”
Grandma used to say that a lot.
Could you post the link
Thnx
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