Posted on 10/15/2018 4:37:06 PM PDT by 11th_VA
The key to voter enthusiasm in this midterm cycle may be the same as it is in real estate: Location, location, location. ABC News’ Rick Klein takes a look at the current generic-ballot polling from the latest Washington Post/ABC partnership and notes that the double-digit Democratic lead would normally spell curtains for the GOP. However, Klein points out that almost all of it comes in districts well in hand for Democrats — and that the battleground looks different:
If this was a national referendum on President Donald Trump, he’d be set for a thumping, or a shellacking, or whatever word a president not named Trump might select in conceding defeat.
Nationwide - Trump - Percent - Approval - Rating
Nationwide, Trump has a 41 percent approval rating, and Democrats have a 53-42 percent edge in the generic ballot for the House. But inside the 66 districts that are tossups, or only leaning toward one party or the other — the majority makers, or breakers — that lead evaporates into a 46-47 Democrats v. Republicans race.
It’s a similar dynamic — driven by Democratic strength in cities, and weaknesses in rural areas — that is driving House and Senate forecasts in opposite directions, amid a campaign close set to be dominated by the president.
Perspective - WaPo/ABC - Ballot - Result - Outer
It could be even worse than that from the Democratic perspective. The WaPo/ABC generic ballot result is on the outer edge of the aggregation at RCP, where Democrats have a 7.3-point lead. It’s probably too much to call it an outlier, as Reuters and CNN both give Democrats similar leads, but most other recent polls put the difference in single digits. Rasmussen calls it a solid tie and IBD/TIPP has it at D+2, but most of the polls are in the D+6 -to- D+8 range.
Promising, but even accurate polls can be made wrong by who decides to turn out and vote...so VOTE and get your conservative / Republican family and friends to the polls as well.
Trump wins MI and they had to stop the recount because of voter fraud found in such massive amounts in Detroit....which will be watched since Republican can contest elections now and expose this fraud. Blacks are polling at 18% pro Trump when he only had like 5 or 6% during 16. We have a fantastic candidate that should excite that base because you can not tell me Stabenow excites Detroit. Yet, we have James losing in the polls and supposedly not even close.
Does not compute. How many of these polls are just plain bogus?
No that’s not him..
https://twitter.com/floridaguy267
That’s Florida Guy
Ask Hillary how polls worked out for her.
The polls had Hitlery winning MI by double digits.
Bernie beat her in an upset, Too soon to count James out.
OK, well that makes more sense than @FloridaGuy LOL.
How does a Fake MSM poll make it into breaking news? The polls are all fake and should be ignored. They are simply designed to manipulate people and nothing more.
MN 8
A tie isn’t good, because rats have the advantage in election fraud.
That means that ABC's poll of battleground districts giving Republicans a one-point lead is actually a much bigger lead for them.
Yeah this guy seems legit, so far every poll he ha put out there is verified by other polls so things are looking good..Can’t wait to vote for John Cox in November
Just like in 2016.
“Fake polls are Rat oversampled. It will be much closer by Election Day and R turnout is always underestimated.
Don’t put stock in them.”
And you have to overlay all this “RAT Optimism” with the fact that typically RATs don’t go out and vote in the Mid Terms.
Polls always normalize the closer you get to election day.
Well, it backfired!
How do you see the Democrats winning if the GOP is R+1 in the battleground districts? It would seem that we would sweep them or most of them.
There are two districts in Minnesota that could flip from blue to red.
The 1st CD - southern Minnesota along the Iowa border going from Wisconsin across to South Dakota.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota%27s_1st_congressional_district
The 8th CD - Northeastern Minnesota. Duluth is the largest city. Lots of labor up there but in the last few elections, they have been slowly shifting away from the Dems. The southern counties in this district are getting more populous and are voting more GOP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota%27s_8th_congressional_district
“Polls always normalize the closer you get to election day.”
Didn’t happen in 2016.
when one third of black americans show up and pull the trigger for God, marriage, jobs, law and order, american exceptionalism... aka: trumpism...
Well the demos will be toast.
too many have left the plantation to assure any easy wins.
if this holds true, after the election, the democrats will violate the law, riot, murder and commit mayhem.
They mean to invoke a “culling of the herd” sort of sympathy.
They may experience the culling, but they won’t get much sympathy.
MN-8 and MN-1 look like ours
NV-3 and NV-4, both open, are probably around 50/50, NV-3 is the more Republican of the two probably a better chance there
AZ-1 is our best shot at beating a rat incumbent
PA-8 is our other decent shot at beating a rat incumbent
NH-1 (open), probably a decent shot
A few others can’t be ruled out entirely but these are the good targets.
I didn’t mention PA-14 (old number 18), which is what special election winner Connor Lampchop is leaving behind to instead run in the court-gerrymandered district 17 against Republican incumbent Kieth Rothfus. It looks like Lambchop will beat Rothfus but we are certain to take back PA-14.
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