Posted on 10/31/2016 10:26:27 AM PDT by Ravi
Favorable trends in NC continue.
(Excerpt) Read more at oldnorthstatepolitics.com ...
The daily percentages by race in absentee in-person ballots did show a spike up for the Sunday "Souls to the Polls" drive, but not matching the same percentage from four years ago."
The overall percentage of African-American early voters stayed at 22%, down from 30% in 2012 when Romney won the state by 3%. That is a killer number for Hillary.
Few tidbits compared to 2012: Dems down 3.7%, GOP up 5.1% and unaffiliated up a whopping 37%!
Most unaffiliated white (80%) and equal split M:F ratio.
18-29 yo vote share in 2012 early voting was 13.2%.
18-29 yo vote share thus far in 2016 is 9.9%.
McDonald is pinning his hopes on Indys for NC. That sounds like a losing strategy.
Indys are going for Trump.
Yes absolutely. Unless GOP and unaffiliated women totally abandon Trump, this seems very positive overall.
The downside is the organized voting of the Democrats.
“Among all absentee ballots, the party registration breaks down as: 43 percent registered Democrat, 31 percent registered Republican, and 25 percent registered unaffiliated.”
Yet, another poll that is Over Sampling Democrats.
This one by 12 Points!
Especially considering Bitzer said yesterday or day before of the half of unaffiliateds who voted in primaries, 55% voted in GOP primary and 45% voted in DEM primary.
Mrs BN & I had breakfast at Waffle House (Pecan waffle & Ham & Cheese Omelet) in Western NC yesterday. The staff (white AND Black) was all laughing at Hillary jokes.
Vary few “Hillary” yard signs to be seen. We joked that our car with 250K+ miles needed a new paint job -
“Let’s put Trump and ‘Hillary for Prison’ stickers on it and drive over to Asheville. Park it in the Artsy-Craftsy district and take a nice leisurely supper.”
(does that qualify as Insurance Fraud?) just joking :-)
They’ve tried. Trust me. They’ve tried. Election day will be a mess for them. They need this early voting to pan out for them and it isn’t.
This isn’t a poll. Follow along here. Dems really rely on early voting and they really need to run up the margins to withstand GOP onslaught election day. All these “souls to the polls” and other programs are their best organizational effort and it is coming up short compared to 2012.
Consider 2008 even. In early voting, Dems were 51% of voters and GOP was 30% of the voters. McCain still barely lost by 20,000.
http://www.electproject.org/2008_early_vote
This seems very consistent with the 6-10% improvement of Trump vs Witch from the Rummy vs obola.
An 8% improvement is Trump +5 on election day overall, and he takes NH, CO, PA, MI, WI, NV, IA, FL, NC and OR and NM are in play at least.
Democrat 2,715,039 Republican 2,067,392 Libertarian 31,747 Unafilliated 2,050,663
One other major caveat I have is I want to make sure we are not cannibalizing our election day voters. I don’t think so. Most people who vote election day vote election day and most who vote early always vote early. This is just my intuition however.
Thanks for posting this informative thread!
https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=10-27-2012
Look at equivalent point in time in 2012 (10/27/12)
Dem 2.85 million
GOP 2.04 million
Unaffiliated 1.7 million
Welcome. It’s not me who put this data together. I’m glad this North Carolina professor did. We need this data for other states also.
“and unaffiliated up a whopping 37%!”
That is what is going to kill Hillary.
Excellent news! I wish someone would take a look at NV. I’m hearing some mixed info and would love to see something positive there as well.
We are walking barefoot over rough gravel to the polls on
Election Day and voting TRUMP - PENCE.
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