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To: MaxistheBest

The number you see today is an average of past polls PLUS the most recent. The assumption that the 4 point lead for Trump represents the response for 1 days polling is incorrect. Look at this as if it were the RCP average of polls.


11 posted on 07/25/2016 3:58:14 AM PDT by billyboy15
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To: billyboy15
The number you see today is an average of past polls PLUS the most recent. The assumption that the 4 point lead for Trump represents the response for 1 days polling is incorrect. Look at this as if it were the RCP average of polls.

You don't have to lecture me on how that poll works...
 
What you say is not wrong (other than your being vague) and you accusing me of being wrong.
It would be more correct for you to have said... 
     What you see today is an average of the latest six past polls plus the most recent.
I am NOT making any assumption that the 4 point lead for Trump represents the response for 1 day of polling.

I studied this for hours with a sophisticated spreadsheet, and my analysis is near-bullet-proof.

Here is a very-simplified spreadsheet test for you to verify that what I said was right....
Plug into your spreadsheet this example....
Hypothetically, lets say that 300 people got polled each day for a long period of time, 
and for 20 days straight Candidate "T" polled at exactly 42%.   
If that were the case, you certainly would agree that the 7-day average was 42% and the sample size was 2100.

Then presume a step-function occurred, and Candidate "T" truly did jump suddenly, 
(lets say starting on a FRIDAY) and consistently polled 48% for three days in a row.
What would the next THREE (seven-day) averages be reported as, for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday?

Here is the answer... 
  On Friday: 43.7%
On Saturday: 44.4%
  On Sunday: 45.1%
.........................Note how much this hypothetical simplification matches what really happened.
Then maybe you can understand that Trump REALLY IS at roughly 47 or 48 percent right now, and has been for about 3 days, 
and it will just take 4 more days before it shows up in this poll (assuming it holds ~steady for the full 7 days)

Likewise, Hillary really is in the 36-37% range right now, and she has been for about three days., 
If she were to stay stable at those values for four more days, those numbers (~37%) would also show up in this poll.









21 posted on 07/25/2016 6:28:32 AM PDT by Future Useless Eater (Obama wants nuclear war with RU or NK by October. How would Americans know who REALLY started it?)
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