If Trump stops the unforced errors, particularly his personal fights involving women, and stays focused on borders/jobs - he might have a chance.
He needs to hold almost all of GWB’s states picking up a rust belt state or two (MI? WI?) to make up for some Hispanic-driven losses (CO, NM) from the GWB slate. FL should be a big worry. Hillary got slightly more votes than he did in the primary and she will inherit all of Bernie’s votes, while Trump is less certain of picking up all of Cruz/Rubio’s. Virginia is going to very tough too.
Donald doesn’t pick his lady fights. They pick them.