OK - I'll play... exactly how does that work? Do you really believe that suddenly the GOP establishment will actually back Cruz at the Convention? Based on what? The only way Cruz has a shot is to get 1237 himself. And to do that, he needs big wins in Trump's backyard. And a huge win in California. Sorry, but if Kasich is still in it, Cruz will come in 3rd in CA.
I will do a quick explain. This is one example. In Iowa in June we will pick 30 delegates at the state convention. My guess is none will be true Trump supporters. The first ballot they have to vote for Trump. After that they vote for whomever they want.
I'll answers it - It doesn't.
Even giving Cruz 7 states where he shuts out Trump who gets zero delegates including Utah as seen in bold below, Cruz will not stop Trump. In this scenario, Trump gets 696 + 710 = 1,406 delegates by June 7th.
States | Delegates | Trump Simulator |
American Samoa | 9 | 9 |
Arizona | 58 | 58 |
Utah | 40 |
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North Dakota | 28 |
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Wisconsin | 42 | 42 |
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Colorado | 37 |
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New York | 95 | 95 |
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Connecticut | 28 | 21 |
Delaware | 16 | 16 |
Maryland | 38 | 38 |
Pennsylvania | 71 | 60 |
Rhode Island | 19 | 15 |
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Indiana | 57 | 57 |
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Nebraska | 36 | 36 |
West Virginia | 34 | 34 |
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Oregon | 28 |
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Washington | 44 | 38 |
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California | 172 | 140 |
Montana | 27 |
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New Jersey | 51 | 51 |
New Mexico | 24 |
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South Dakota | 29 |
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Totals | 983 | 710 |