Posted on 03/16/2016 6:09:58 AM PDT by 11th_VA
It's over folks. Trump is going to get AT LEAST 550 of the remaining winner take all delegates.
That leaves 349 proportional delegates to be picked at. If he gets 1/3 of those, that's another 116.
so 666 (are you kidding me?) additional delegates will put him over the top easily.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Would be nice, but Obama/Jarrett won’t let it see the light of day before the November election, if at all. Details being leaked, FBI director resigning will have no effect.
That is what Gingrich said will happen, that there is no way that either of them will be able to stomach someone getting the nomination who didn’t go through the process, and who is the very embodiment of the GOPe. He said that the party would be destroyed, that a large percentage of people would stay home. He believes that about 80% of the delegates will vote for the winner of the most delegates, with the #2 among them likely being the VP.
Of course, even absent last night, the obvious top vote-getter is and will be Trump. The only difficulty will be getting the 2 of them to walk back their incendiary statements about each other.
I’ve wanted a Trump/Cruz ticket for a long time. I figured that early on, when they weren’t sniping at each other, that they had an arrangement...which, in view of later events, they clearly didn’t. But the time is approaching where they should start talking. Its a natural - Cruz probably cannot win a national election in this cycle, given the tremendous hatred of him that’s been foisted on the public by his rivals and the Leftist media - but he CAN bring a lot of the conservative base on board (like Palin in ‘08, but this time with a much higher level of intelligence and experience). Trump, as a business executive who delegates projects and tasks to others so as to best use his own talents, will likely delegate the task of vetting and recommending all federal judges to Cruz, which will assure an originalist bench, make the base (including me) feel a LOT better, and (as a delicious bonus of schaedenfreud) make the Leftists go absolutely NUTS). Cruz will also keep Trump on the straight and narrow regarding what is and is not permissible for the President to do. Between them, they’ll get immigration straightened out. Between them, they’ll rebuild our military and return us to the correct course in foreign policy. Cruz will benefit mightily by having 8 years as VP, making him the Party’s natural front-runner for 2024. Oh, and a special and much-needed bonus: the present GOPe will be either destroyed or so severely wounded as to not be much of a factor for quite a while.
TRUMP/CRUZ 2016.
Its good to see Ted has very strong supporters that believes he can move mountains.
Yeah—and the conservative cause right over the cliff.
Your math is wrong because States like Pennsylvania and California are NOT winner-take-all as is normally understood. Both States operate like Illinois or Missouri where there is a pool of statewide delegates that go to the winner of the state overall and then there are delegates up for grab in each of the districts.
When you look at the numbers of delegates available to the overall State winner, it breaks down like this:
March 22nd
Arizona — 58 delegates to the winner of the State
Utah — 40 delegates to a candidate over 50%, otherwise proportional among the others
April 5th
Wisconsin — 18 delegates to the winner of the State, 3 delegates per district
April 19th
New York — 14 delegates to the winner of the State, 3 delegates per district (2 for the winner, 1 for second place unless the winner breaks 50%, then all 3 to the winner)
April 26th
Connecticut — 13 delegates to the winner of the State, 3 delegates per district
Delaware — 16 delegates to the winner of the State
Maryland — 14 delegates to the winner of the State, 3 delegates per district (delegates are voted on individually)
Pennsylvania — 17 delegates to the winner of the State, 3 delegates per district (delegates are voted on individually)
Rhode Island — 13 delegates to the winner of the State, 3 delegates per district (1 delegate to each candidate over 10%, or 2 delegates to a candidate that breaks 67% and 1 delegate to second place)
May 3rd
Indiana — 30 delegates to the winner of the State, 3 delegates per district
May 10th
Nebraska — 36 delegates to the winner of the State
West Virginia — 25 delegates to the winner of the State, 3 delegates per district
May 17th
Oregon — 1 delegate per 3.57% of State results
May 24th
Washington — 14 delegates divided proportionally among all candidates who claim over 20% statewide, 3 delegates per district (3 to a candidate who breaks 50%, 2 to the winner and one to second place if two candidates break 20%, 1 each to first, second and third place if 3 or more candidates break 20%)
California — 13 delegates to the winner of the State, 3 delegates per district
Montana — 27 delegates to the winner of the State
New Jersey — 51 delegates to the winner of the State
New Mexico — 24 delegates divided proportionally to all candidates who claim over 15% statewide
South Dakota — 29 delegates to the winner of the State
As you can see, most “Winner-take-all” States are hybrids, and that makes the math much more complicated. So far South Carolina, Florida, and Ohio have been pure winner-take-all contests. When you look at the same pure winner-take-all contests, there are only 6 worth 217 delegates. And three of those (Nebraska, Montana, and South Dakota worth 92 delegates) are more likely to go to Cruz at this point.
In six days, Arizona is a winner-take-all contest. Then the next one isn’t for another 21 days! And that is Delaware.
And three weeks is a long, long time in politics. The final two take place seven weeks after Delaware.
Trump has a very good chance of claiming 1,237+ delegates, but if he does, it wont be until late in the night on May 24th when the California results comes in. And if he is on the edge, it will be the next morning before the dust settles and we find out if he won all of the districts he needed to pull it out.
The polls heading to Arizona will be interesting. We normally don’t have intense polling done this deep in the Primary season, but now, as we are down to a few contests a week, I think we will see a lot of polls coming out in places that have never had the attention.
Hey, let's not forget that Kasich helped Bill Clinton to pass the Assault Weapons Ban in 1994:
The SOB shouldn't get a single vote from anyone who gives a damn about the 2nd Amendment. Trump needs to talk about that loudly and often.
Trump also needs to challenge Kasich's place on the ballot in PA - he didn't get enough signatures on the petition to be eligible.
I’ve wondered if she has myasthenia gravis.
Cruz, strong base in Texas? He had a terrible primary turnout for a 1 term sitting senator who was initially a state conservative darling. Many Texans, including myself, have seen Cruz for what he really is.
That could actually be a plus.
I’m sure she’ll have a minority VP and the community organizers will be “wink-winking” about her failing health.
Also with a toxic enough VP candidate, the Republicans will be afraid to impeach her after she pardons herself for Benghazi.
Trump/Sessions 2016
Sessions is the real-deal conservative VP choice.
What is your thinking on this?
+1
I forget all about Scott Walker. Funny, he was my first choice when this whole thing started.
He'd be a great pick. Better than Kasich (for whom Trump would have to walk back all the nasty stuff he said about).
Gawd. Once those Clinton’s get the reins, they are like trying to get rid of fire ants. I’m praying, and fasting off of crunchy Cheetos until November, that she/they don’t get this thing, again.
God bless you dear!
It’s already coming out. With 100 or 150 agents working on it including directing questions to the Clinton foundations it can’t be covered up. We’re looking at a betrayal of the public trust of historic import. If Obama has any concerns about his legacy, Clinton has to be handled.
If nothing else Trump will pound her to smithereens on the details. With the media still chasing Trump like a dogs after a car with a bad muffler, everyone will be provided continual coverage.
Don’t forget Judicial Watch will be deposing Clinton’s aides in May. How many of them will take the fifth? How is that going to be swept under the carpet?
The stench surrounding her is only going to get stronger. She’s dead.
Probably mini-strokes.
myasthenia gravis?
I think that’s what you mean.
The coughing jags, and the vision. The prism glasses. The dizzy spells. The concussion, or whatever happened, and she was rushed home. I am not clear about what really happened. I am suspicious. I am not a doctor. Not making a diagnosis. Have a family member, and a dentist, who have it.
Very informative.Excellent analysis.
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