Ted Cruz's huge surge in Election Day voting in Louisiana

Washington Post ^ | March 6 at 8:02 AM | Philip Bump

[SoConPubbie]

One of two things happened in Louisiana. We know that the margins between the top three candidates in the state shifted dramatically between votes cast by absentee ballot and those cast on Saturday, the day of the election. That means that either that: 1) A candidate had a very strong get-out-the-vote effort, or 2) There was a broad shift in attitudes about the candidates.

When we looked at this Saturday night, it wasn't clear which was the case. Now, we have a better sense.

If we look at the votes in counties* for which we have data (culled from the AP's initial and final vote tallies), you can see that Ted Cruz gained strength after the absentee vote. The darker the county, the higher the vote percentage. Cruz's map gets darker. Donald Trump and Marco Rubio's get lighter -- the latter, dramatically so.

Another way of looking at it is the percentage-point shift between the final percentage in each county and the percentage from the early totals. Cruz's map is all blue, all increased. Rubio's is not.

One more way of looking at it, showing the shifts more clearly still. Anything above the line means an improvement between the final or day-of percent and the absentee totals.

[SoConPubbie]

	"If we must have an enemy at the head of Government, let it be one whom we can oppose, and for whom we are not responsible, who will not involve our party in the disgrace of his foolish and bad measures." - Alexander Hamilton "We don't intend to turn the Republican Party over to the traitors in the battle just ended. We will have no more of those candidates who are pledged to the same goals as our opposition and who seek our support. Turning the Party over to the so-called moderates wouldn’t make any sense at all." -- President Ronald Reagan "A thing moderately good is not so good as it ought to be. Moderation in temper is always a virtue; but moderation in principle is always a vice." - Thomas Paine 1792 "It does not take a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams "If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen." - Samuel Adams " Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost." - John Quincy Adams

[Gaffer]

Who WON Louisiana? That’s what matters.

[grey_whiskers]

Is there any common characteristic of those voting absentee which would cause them to skew heavily Cruz?

So, vote fraud on absentee ballots, is that what is being hinted at ?

[nickcarraway]

I think you are reading it the opposite. This is saying Cruz had a surge in those who voted live, compared to those who had voted absentee at an earlier time.

[wiseprince]

To me, the way to look at it is Trump got his votes in early so didn’t have as much work to do on election day. Just like Obama did in 2012

[Gysmo]

This is why I am in favor of all voting on voting day only.

[heshtesh]

Between early voting time and events that have occured during the debates etc. it looks like the trend is shifting in Cruz direction.

[scooby321]

Caucus State

Explains everything you need to know

[Fresh Wind]

So, vote fraud on absentee ballots, is that what is being hinted at ?

Or fraud in the live voting.

[Fresh Wind]

LA is a primary state.

[deport]

Caucus State

***************

Since when?

[odawg]

It appears that Trump’s support held.

[heshtesh]

Let’s also note Cruz was competitive in 4 states whereas Trump was competitive in 2 states.

[CyberAnt]

Yes, more conservatives vote absentee. It’s calculated that most absentee ballots will skew to the conservative.

[Georgia Girl 2]

I just hope Ted keeps surging to defeat. LOL!

[Gaffer]

Understand, but a non-winner go-into-position for any candidate by voters is a recipe for GOPe/RNC treachery on the second round vote.

What Trump and Cruz need to do is concentrate on killing off Rubio’s and Kasich’s candidacy completely before then.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Personally I think Trump just needs to keep killing off Rubio and Cruz.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Personally I think Trump just needs to keep killing off Rubio and Cruz.

[Cedar]

I just don’t find it that surprising Cruz ran a close second. Louisiana is right next to Texas, so he is a familiar (almost local) name. If Cruz was from Oregon, he might not have gotten as many votes. Just my thinking, as I’m from the South.

[Sacajaweau]

I think there should be NO early voting .<it should be the Sat, Sun Mon before the first Tuesday after the First Monday....with no results known or released until the first Tuesday after the first Monday.