Idaho Republican presidential primary tough to predict

The New Hampshire presidential primary seems to have set the shape of the Republican contest for some time to come, bringing into focus some questions awaiting Idaho's Republicans. And for Idaho's many establishment Republicans, those may be eerie questions.

This year's Republican nomination battle is far more splintered in Idaho than it has been for many years. Four years ago, the establishment was solidly behind Mitt Romney, and until he dropped out in 2008 he had strong backing then as well. George W. Bush had the Idaho establishment firmly in his corner the two elections before that.

Idaho's three-term governor, Butch Otter, and its longest-serving members of Congress, Sen. Mike Crapo and Rep. Mike Simpson, seem to have stayed out of the fracas so far. Maybe they were uncertain how the field would play out and how Idaho would react. Or they may have observed what happened to other endorsees. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, backed by Rep. Raul Labrador, has dropped out. And Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, backed by Sen. Jim Risch, Controller Brandon Woolf and Idaho Falls businessman Frank VanderSloot (a veteran of the Romney campaigns), only days ago seemed ascendant but had the daylights kicked out of him in New Hampshire, and his campaign's future is highly uncertain.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, backed by former Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthone, seems a long shot for the nomination. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, backed by Idaho legislators Marv Hagedorn and Robert Anderst, took second place in New Hampshire (after barely registering in Iowa), but he invested almost everything he had -- time, money, people -- into that state, and has scarcely any campaign organization or built-in support in the states yet to vote.

Just two Republican candidates actually seem well positioned for the race to come: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and businessman Donald Trump. Cruz has a couple of fairly well-known Idaho Republicans backing him, Treasurer Ron Crane and former state Republican Chair Norm Semanko, but if there's wider support, it isn't yet very visible.

As for Trump, I'm not sure who his highest-profile Idaho backers would be. There's a Facebook page called "Idaho for Donald Trump 2016" with 860 likes, but hardly any local content -- almost all of it is reposts of national material. And yet statistically, Trump probably has a significant number of Gem State supporters.

Who will Idaho Republicans support for president, assuming -- and this is looking actually more likely than not right now -- the race is still competitive by the time Idahoans get to vote on it?

I read a fascinating analysis (wish I could recall where I saw it) drawing a structural distinction between the Trump and Cruz campaigns, and implicitly the difference between those two and a "conventional mainstream" campaign (like a Bush or Rubio, assuming one of them survives to the later stages). It goes something like this:

Trump supporters are mainly individualists, drawn to the campaign person by person or family by family, and are numerous but for the most part not well organized into groups.

Cruz's people by contrast tend to be organized, some in ideologically-based organizations (like the various conservative groups that have splintered the Kootenai County Republican factions), others tied to evangelical or other churches, still others linked to other kinds of organizations -- groups with strong ideological or religious drives which have not been satisfied with the national Republican Party (which Cruz calls the "cartel"). Cruz has carefully reached out to these groups around the country and won support from many of them.

Then there are the mainstreamers, who would be those most traditionally tied to Republican party organizations and officials.

What makes the Idaho analysis so hard is this: The first two groups, which clearly exist in substantial ways in Idaho, have not in the past played a large role in selecting the state's presidential nomination choices. This year, those individualized dissidents and the dissatisfied small groups, who in the past often seem to have taken their lead from the party organization, appear much less likely to do that, and may go their own way -- which might translate to substantial votes for Trump and Cruz, as in many other states.

Right now, the Idaho Republican establishment may have reason to be as spooked as the national Republican establishment is.

Romney did well in Idaho because it has lots of Mormons. There are no Mormons in the race this cycle, so the Mormon advantage goes to no one.

In 2012, Idaho had a Republican caucus. There are areas of Idaho where non-LDS(non-Mormons) keep a very low profile because they are discriminated against. Anyone going to the 2012 caucus and voting for anyone but Romney was going to be “outed” as non-LDS.

This year, the Republicans have gone back to a primary with a secret ballot. The LDS faithful are leaning towards Cruz. Between frustrated non-LDS voters, annoyed residents of central Idaho due to the refugee center, and areas of western Idaho being swamped by Latinos (legal and non-legal), Trump has a good chance of winning in Idaho.

Particularly with his unashamed “Make America Great Again!” slogan.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.