This poll seems plausible.
That was my reaction, too. Outsiders got more support, but with some of Carson's vote going to Fiona, Trumps lead increased. All of that not-a-politician vote logically will find its way to Trump.
Among the establishment pols, Rubio had the best debate, by far. And his support though low still went up.
The other good news....voters really do not like Tippy-Toes Jeb.