Replies

I think you’re exaggerating and overstating it when you say Hispanics are splitting almost down the middle in Texas and other states.

Yes, if the 44% exit poll figure for Abbott is correct, then that is a great showing for a Republican with Latinos. But it is not typical. Usually Republicans in Texas do good to get around 40%. That’s what Cruz claimed to have got in 2012, while Perry probably got a few points less than that last time. So usually the GOP is a long way from splitting the Hispanic vote, even in Texas.

I haven’t seen exit polls for New Mexico or Nevada, but even if Martinez and Sandoval did as good as Abbott with Hispanics, it would again be an exception to the norm in those states, and definitely not enough to proclaim a lasting shift.

The only state with a large Hispanic population where the GOP has won that demographic several times is Florida, and that is because Cubans are much more Republican (though less so than before) than other Latino groups.

Hispanics are still a a mostly democratic group, which is natural because they hold liberal views on most of the big issues. It is still in the GOP’s demographic best interest to greatly reduce legal immigration and oppose amnesty for illegal aliens.

Otherwise I largely agree. Whites are a block in Texas and many other southern states. If only the GOP could win over 70% of the white vote all over the south and Midwest like they do in Texas!

I’d add though that one reason whites are voting more as a block is because of our unwanted policy of unending mass immigration. If our elites are determined to makes whites another minority group, then one shouldn’t be surprised if whites start voting like one.

This is interesting stuff, and when you do the math, you get very interesting results - I’ve been doing it on a spreadsheet. But for starters, if a Republican gets 45% of the Hispanic vote, then Hispanics virtually don’t exist for Democrats, as 90% of their votes have canceled each other. In Texas, if there were no Hispanics, and if whites vote 75/25 Republican and blacks vote 88/12 Democrat, the best a Republican can do is 62%. That represents an upper limit and that number was nearly achieved in Texas.

So for starters. Per CNN exit polling, Hispanics were 17% of the electorate. If you double that number to 34%, but Reps still hold 40% of their votes, we still win by 14 points (57/43). In fact, unless you can get Hispanics to go 80/20 Dem, and with their vote count doubled (at 34%), you won’t reach 50/50. That’s a VERY TALL order for the Democrats and will not happen unless the Republicans do something really stupid (like pass Amnesty or turn really nasty in some other way).

The Dems have the same spreadsheet capability and exit polling...they have to know it’s hopeless here, barring a Republican meltdown. They simply went too far, by causing whites to vote as a block. The challenge now is for whites to block vote outside of the South, once they do that, it’s over for the Dems, at least for a generation.

Looking at the rest of what you posted - yea we’re in synch. The HARD PART is to convince the Republicans to trust spreadsheets with hard data, rather than their highly paid ‘advisers’ (most of them gay, by the way). If we can do that...we’re looked at a country that is flipped over from what we were promised, and in a GOOD WAY!