This particular poll had an identified party percentage as follows:
50% Democrat
39% Republican
11% Independent
Ultimately as you point out the race will most likely be close regardless of who wins.
If that is the break down for real, I will say McConnell will win the race. No way Kentucky turnout will be 50% Democrat. No Way!
I think McConnell is a RINO. He is not a good Senator. But his competition is a true blue Democrat.
Couldn’t they both lose?