Moscow signals concern for Russians in Estonia

reuters.com ^ | Mar 19, 2014 | Robert Evans

[Berlin_Freeper]

Russia signaled concern on Wednesday at Estonia's treatment of its large ethnic Russian minority, comparing language policy in the Baltic state with what it said was a call in Ukraine to prevent the use of Russian.

Russia has defended its annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula by arguing it has the right to protect Russian-speakers outside its borders, so the reference to linguistic tensions in another former Soviet republic comes at a highly sensitive moment.

[lodi90]

If their defense strategy is to fight the Russians to the last dead GI, I think we’d be better off having Estonia under the Russian flag.

---

The Estonians probably realize the kenyan isn’t going to send any GIs. There are no NATO facilities in the Baltics and historically only a few NATO aircraft have been deployed there. It’s appropriate now to expand the NATO footprint in the Baltics but obama is refusing to do it. Given that, it’s hard to see any small European country getting into a shooting war with Russia.

We are in a very dangerous situation right now because of the weakness being projected by obama and the EU. Putin will probe the NATO alliance at a time of his choosing.

[Zhang Fei]

The Estonians probably realize the kenyan isn’t going to send any GIs. There are no NATO facilities in the Baltics and historically only a few NATO aircraft have been deployed there. It’s appropriate now to expand the NATO footprint in the Baltics but obama is refusing to do it. Given that, it’s hard to see any small European country getting into a shooting war with Russia.

If they don't value their freedom enough to sacrifice their young men for it, why should we sacrifice ours? Do I think Russian revanchism and irredentism are a danger to global security? Sure. But wars have costs. That our military dependents in the Baltic states want to use us as their defense of first resort means we bear most of the costs. Maybe I'm being unreasonable, but it seems to me that since their freedom is the main item under threat, maybe they should bear a big portion of the burden of preparing for war, including spending more than 1% to 2% of their GDP on defense. We spend 4.4% and it's not like we have strong and dangerous neighbors on our borders.

[Zhang Fei]

The three Baltic states have no interceptor aircraft and a population of 6m among them. Singapore has a population of 5m, its inventory includes 143 interceptor/fighter aircraft (mostly late model F-15's and F-16's and a small number of upgraded F-5's) and potential adversaries are nothing on Russia's scale. Heck, even the Finnish Air Force contains 52 F-18's, and Finland's population is only 5m. If the Baltic states don't want to make the sacrifices needed to protect themselves, there's a pretty poor case for us jumping in to help them, NATO allies or not. Welfare cases must sometimes be cut off. Without a bit of tough love, the rest of our "allies" will follow in their footsteps by similarly reducing their militaries to the point that they might be able to deal with domestic disturbances and not much else.

[SkyDancer]

I’m thinking that Russia will have their collective heads handed to them politically and economically (but not by 0bama although he’d take the credit).

[lodi90]

The Estonian FM have said they need to spend more on defense. Let’s see if they do it.

They still joke in the Baltics about Homo Sovieticus. There is an older generation that is nostalgic for Soviet times. Few want to be a martyr in that part of the world these days. It’s similar to the Chicoms with their new material wealth I suppose. Facing the Russian bear there is a fatalism. “We are a small country, why fight?” Any doubts about NATO is enough to break them, I believe.

Just don’t try to take away their smart phones. That would be a fight!

[lodi90]

Poland with like 40 million people has way less than 100 front line fighters. Nobody has spent anything on defense in that part of Europe and now it is biting them in the butt. Freedom isn’t free as they say....

[expat_panama]

...what a provocation it was to allow the former vassal states of the Soviet empire to exercise their democratic choice to join the community of nations...

Yikes!  I thought I was reading your sarcasm in an exceptionally bitter acid parody --only to finally realize that people actually think that way.

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

A bunch of countries that have ethnic Russians should immediately offer to “return them” to Russia so that Putin can “care” for them.

A simple proposition, that if Russians fear for their safety, they may “go home” to Russia; and if they do not fear for their safety, they may stay in their new country, but have expressed their opinion that they do not need Putin’s help.

[ScottinVA]

The Russians now know if they’re going to act with aggression, now’s the time. With a rapidly weakening U.S. and a wayward, islamizing Europe, Putin’s Russia can act with little downside. If they went into any of the Baltic countries, technically we’re expected to respond, because they’re part of NATO.

But I strongly doubt the resolve of NATO and especially the Obama-ruled U.S. to do much more than send letters of deep, deep concern.

[Fitzy_888]

Sudetenland Crisis Redux.

[Fitzy_888]

Hitler Speaks on the plight of Sudeten Germans and the hypocrisy of the democratic nations (captioned in english)

http://youtu.be/WppUD9IpODU

[Paul R.]

There’s probably a balance to be struck, and it has to be reconsidered regularly for each individual country. An advantage of not having all our allies armed to the teeth is that such cuts down on “adventurism” in which the ally assumes that if something goes wrong, the US is treaty bound to come to their rescue. This is a related argument to my point that if the US cannot be depended on to provide a defense umbrella / honor its security arrangements, Assurances, and Treaties, there will be nuclear weapons proliferation like nothing we’ve ever seen, and that almost certainly leads to a significant nuclear exchange in the not too distant future. Such WILL affect us, even if its “only” via radiation drifting our way, and economic effects.

On the other hand, there is nothing wrong with us insisting that countries capable of footing the bill do so, with us as essentially the volume discount hired guns.

That said, then there are the cases where the economy of the country(s) are not sufficient to foot the bill. I’d have to research and do some math, but while “doing ok” now, I don’t think the Baltic countries you add up have remotely near the GDP of Singapore, or even Finland. Estonia in particular seems to be on the right track with their economy, but their economy is tiny: GDP (est.) was $28.44 billion in 2012 (PPP). By comparison, Singapore’s GDP in 2011 was (est.) $318.9 billion (PPP), and the country is flat out dripping with wealth, infrastructure, you name it. The Soviets left Estonia a wreck, while Singapore was already booming at that time. So the comparison is hardly fair.

In such a case, I think the answer is that the ally provide the troops, we provide bargain basement (but good) equipment and training, and we get basing rights (which will also help their economy.) Others may have even better ideas - what do you think?

[fabian]

Knives? Against storm troopers with rifles? I don’t think so.

[ZULU]

The bastard in the White House is single-handedly reversing what Reagan, the Pope, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, and Lech Walesa worked so hard to accomplish.

I am so ashamed of my countrymen for electing this miserable piece of offal to office TWICE!!!!! And for not demanding his worthless @$$ be impeached, removed from office, tried for treason and imprisoned for life.

[Zhang Fei]

That said, then there are the cases where the economy of the country(s) are not sufficient to foot the bill. I’d have to research and do some math, but while “doing ok” now, I don’t think the Baltic countries you add up have remotely near the GDP of Singapore, or even Finland. Estonia in particular seems to be on the right track with their economy, but their economy is tiny: GDP (est.) was $28.44 billion in 2012 (PPP). By comparison, Singapore’s GDP in 2011 was (est.) $318.9 billion (PPP), and the country is flat out dripping with wealth, infrastructure, you name it. The Soviets left Estonia a wreck, while Singapore was already booming at that time. So the comparison is hardly fair.

I've been following defense policy for a while. In 1988, Singapore's GDP was $54.625b in 2010 dollars. Its defense spending was 4.8% of GDP. Combined, the Baltic states had a GDP of $80.321b in 2010. They spent 1.2% of GDP on defense. Here's the historical data from SIPRI:

Military expenditure by country, in constant (2010) US$ m., 1988-2011
	Budget	Budget	GDP	GDP	% of GDP	% of GDP
Country	1988	2010	1988	2010	1988	2010
Afghanistan	. .	576		15158	. .	3.8
Albania	. .	190		11875	5.6	1.6
Algeria	672	5671	39529	157528	1.7	3.6
Angola	. .	3501		83357	. .	4.2
Argentina	4397	3476	219850	386222	2.0	0.9
Armenia	xxx	395		9405	xxx	4.2
Australia	13228	23221	629905	1222158	2.1	1.9
Austria	3285	3513	252692	390333	1.3	0.9
Azerbaijan	xxx	1476		50897	xxx	2.9
Bahrain	243	776	4860	22824	5.0	3.4
Bangladesh	456	1298	45600	118000	1.0	1.1
Belarus	xxx	768		54857	xxx	1.4
Belgium	7939	5233	305346	475727	2.6	1.1
Belize	4.9	15.3	490	1391	1.0	1.1
Benin	68.9	. .	2996		2.3	. .
Bolivia	. .	328		19294	. .	1.7
Bosnia-Herzegovina	xxx	220		18333	xxx	1.2
Botswana	193	352	3939	14667	4.9	2.4
Brazil	19902	34384	947714	2149000	2.1	1.6
Brunei	349	391	5288	12219	6.6	3.2
Bulgaria	. .	894		47053	. .	1.9
Burkina Faso	57.0	124	3000	9538	1.9	1.3
Burundi	44.5	. .	1435		3.1	. .
Cambodia	65.7	175	5054	10938	1.3	1.6
Cameroon	197	354	15154	22125	1.3	1.6
Canada	19339	23109	966950	1540600	2.0	1.5
Cape Verde	10.6	8.3	558	1660	1.9	0.5
Central African Rep.	. .	51.6		1985	. .	2.6
Chad	. .	226		8370	. .	2.7
Chile	2913	6579	58260	205594	5.0	3.2
China, P. R.	. .	121064		5764952	. .	2.1
Colombia	2177	10422	145133	289500	1.5	3.6
Congo	. .	134		12182	. .	1.1
Congo, Dem. Rep.	. .	184		14154	. .	1.3
Costa Rica	0	0			0.0	0.0
Côte d’Ivoire	185	388	15417	24250	1.2	1.6
Croatia	xxx	1016		59765	xxx	1.7
Cuba	. .	. .			. .	. .
Cyprus	525	478	9211	22762	5.7	2.1
Czech Rep.	xxx	2498		192154	xxx	1.3
Czechoslovakia	7678	xxx			. .	xxx
Denmark	4519	4504	215190	300267	2.1	1.5
Djibouti	70.0	. .	1000		7.0	. .
Dominican Rep.	141	359	15667	51286	0.9	0.7
Ecuador	420	2094	21000	58167	2.0	3.6
Egypt	5246	4289	80708	214450	6.5	2.0
El Salvador	552	224	7169	20364	7.7	1.1
Equatorial Guinea	. .	. .			. .	. .
Eritrea	xxx	. .			xxx	. .
Estonia	xxx	330		19412	xxx	1.7
Ethiopia	563	298	6951	33111	8.1	0.9
Fiji	43.3	50.6	1968	3163	2.2	1.6
Finland	2515	3400	157188	242857	1.6	1.4
France	65266	59098	1812944	2569478	3.6	2.3
Gabon	. .	125		13889	. .	0.9
Gambia	1.9	. .	211		0.9	. .
Georgia	xxx	454		11641	xxx	3.9
German DR	10804	xxx			. .	xxx
Germany	63629	45075	2194103	3219643	2.9	1.4
Ghana	25.6	125	8533	31250	0.3	0.4
Greece	6968	7162	165905	311391	4.2	2.3
Guatemala	349	170		42500		0.4
Guinea	. .	. .			. .	. .
Guinea-Bissau	. .	. .			. .	. .
Guyana	3.7	28.8	185	1371	2.0	2.1
Haiti	7.5	0	7500		0.1	0.0
Honduras	. .	170		15455	. .	1.1
Hungary	4262	1351	112158	135100	3.8	1.0
Iceland	0	. .			0.0	. .
India	16705	46086	464028	1706889	3.6	2.7
Indonesia	1405	4663	156111	666143	0.9	0.7
Iran	1776	. .	88800		2.0	. .
Iraq	. .	3581		149208	. .	2.4
Ireland	774	1274	64500	212333	1.2	0.6
Israel	12659	14242	81147	219108	15.6	6.5
Italy	35274	35532	1533652	2090118	2.3	1.7
Jamaica	. .	106		13250	. .	0.8
Japan	46447	54641	4644700	5464100	1.0	1.0
Jordan	966	1367	10277	27340	9.4	5.0
Kazakhstan	xxx	1502		136545	xxx	1.1
Kenya	853	603	29414	31737	2.9	1.9
Korea, North	. .	. .			. .	. .
Korea, South	13262	27572	294711	1021185	4.5	2.7
Kuwait	3361	4715	40988	130972	8.2	3.6
Kyrgyzstan	xxx	202		4591	xxx	4.4
Laos	. .	16.3		5433	. .	0.3
Latvia	xxx	260		23636	xxx	1.1
Lebanon	278	1633	23167	38881	1.2	4.2
Lesotho	28.7	70.7	755	2281	3.8	3.1
Liberia	. .	8.5		944	2.4	0.9
Libya	. .	. .			. .	. .
Lithuania	xxx	410		37273	xxx	1.1
Luxembourg	173	. .	15727		1.1	. .
Macedonia, FYR	xxx	130		9286	xxx	1.4
Madagascar	65.6	56.9	5046	8129	1.3	0.7
Malawi	20.6	. .	1373		1.5	. .
Malaysia	1293	3859	53875	241188	2.4	1.6
Mali	54.8	177	2491	9316	2.2	1.9
Malta	40.0	58.7	3333	8386	1.2	0.7
Mauritania	47.7	. .	1060		4.5	. .
Mauritius	8.8	14.4	4400	14400	0.2	0.1
Mexico	2284	5414	456800	1082800	0.5	0.5
Moldova	xxx	18.3		6100	xxx	0.3
Mongolia	. .	54.9		4991	6.3	1.1
Montenegro	xxx	75.2		3958	xxx	1.9
Morocco	1734	3161	42293	90314	4.1	3.5
Mozambique	72.4	. .	1366		5.3	. .
Myanmar	. .	. .			2.1	. .
Namibia	xxx	397		10179	xxx	3.9
Nepal	60.5	255	6722	18214	0.9	1.4
Netherlands	12850	11277	458929	805500	2.8	1.4
New Zealand	1797	1606	89850	133833	2.0	1.2
Nicaragua	. .	44.4		6343	. .	0.7
Niger	. .	47.2		5244	. .	0.9
Nigeria	543	1990	67875	199000	0.8	1.0
Norway	5221	6390	180034	426000	2.9	1.5
Oman	2397	4895	13098	57588	18.3	8.5
Pakistan	3657	5661	58984	202179	6.2	2.8
Panama	150	0	7143		2.1	0.0
Papua New Guinea	77.1	42.5	5931	10625	1.3	0.4
Paraguay	. .	154		17111	. .	0.9
Peru	. .	1958		150615	. .	1.3
Philippines	1959	2438	78360	203167	2.5	1.2
Poland	7982	8781	319280	462158	2.5	1.9
Portugal	3346	4821	123926	229571	2.7	2.1
Qatar	. .	. .			. .	. .
Romania	8966	2086	208512	160462	4.3	1.3
Russia	331111	58644	2095639	1503692	15.8	3.9
Rwanda	41.2	74.5	2575	5731	1.6	1.3
Saudi Arabia	19743	45245	129888	447970	15.2	10.1
Senegal	111	200	5550	12500	2.0	1.6
Serbia	xxx	845		38409	xxx	2.2
Seychelles	15.2	8.9	353	685	4.3	1.3
Sierra Leone	7.8	24.7	1114	2058	0.7	1.2
Singapore	2622	8323	54625	224946	4.8	3.7
Slovak Rep.	xxx	1130		86923	xxx	1.3
Slovenia	xxx	772		48250	xxx	1.6
Somalia	. .	. .			. .	. .
South Africa	6335	4631	158375	356231	4.0	1.3
South Sudan	xxx	. .			xxx	. .
Spain	14611	14744	730550	1474400	2.0	1.0
Sri Lanka	434	1500	18083	50000	2.4	3.0
Sudan	847	. .	23528		3.6	. .
Swaziland	16.1	124	1464	4133	1.1	3.0
Sweden	7155	5886	275192	452769	2.6	1.3
Switzerland	6602	4115	388353	514375	1.7	0.8
Syria	1168	2346	16000	57220	7.3	4.1
Taiwan	8474	9067	169480	431762	5.0	2.1
Tajikistan	xxx	. .			xxx	. .
Tanzania	100	250	7143	20833	1.4	1.2
Thailand	3170	4846	109310	323067	2.9	1.5
Timor Leste	xxx	30.8		629	xxx	4.9
Togo	65.4	56.8	2110	3341	3.1	1.7
Trinidad & Tobago	. .	. .			. .	. .
Tunisia	347	563	15087	40214	2.3	1.4
Turkey	9918	17649	342000	735375	2.9	2.4
Turkmenistan	xxx	. .			xxx	. .
UAE	. .	16062		232783	. .	6.9
Uganda	69.3	280	2772	17500	2.5	1.6
UK	53751	58099	1311000	2234577	4.1	2.6
Ukraine	xxx	3710		137407	xxx	2.7
Uruguay	833	788	26031	39400	3.2	2.0
USA	540415	698281	9480965	14547521	5.7	4.8
Uzbekistan	xxx	. .			xxx	. .
Venezuela	. .	3363		373667	. .	0.9
Viet Nam	840	2672	11831	106880	7.1	2.5
Yemen	xxx	. .			xxx	. .
Yemen, North	702	xxx			. .	xxx
Yemen, South	. .	xxx			. .	xxx
Yugoslavia (former)	. .	xxx			. .	xxx
Zambia	317	276	13208	16235	2.4	1.7
Zimbabwe  SEE FOOTNOTE	198	98.3	3960	7562	5.0	1.3

[elhombrelibre]

I agree with you that all of Europe needs to spend much more on its defense and they could easily do so by pooling their resources and finding the right niches where each nation already excels instead of duplicating efforts. But one thing I think you do over look in comparing Singapore national defense efforts and spending to the Baltics is that Singapore was not held back by communism for over 50 years. The former Soviet Satellites are still recovering from Soviet/Russian domination. And as for Ukraine, they were not allowed by Russia to spend enough on defense to be anything but weak.

[AmericanExceptionalist]

If Putin does, indeed, invade Estonia—on whatever pretext—NATO (including the US) would have no choice but to come to its defense, militarily. That is because Estonia joined NATO about 10 years ago.

[Paul R.]

Wikipedia and the CIA factbook have excellent info. The Wikipedia article on Estonia is quite enjoyable to read. Estonia is a great example of a small, poor* country that the Soviets basically left as a pile of cr##, and after some stumbles, Estonia, via a basically free market / competetive economy, is on the road to doing well, despite few resources in the conventional sense. Obama should read about them and take it to heart, except that he never would.

*Actually, they weren’t poor. They have people with heart, freedom, a good direction, and a good work ethic. That’s really all it takes.

[Paul R.]

Yes, but in 1988, Estonia & the others were basket cases, and Singapore was already strong, economically. That does not mean that Estonia, for example, cannot do more NOW, but, part of the problem is that we have deliberately made & kept allies dependent, in this regard. It was seen to be to our advantage (except financially) to keep them weak militarily. Less trouble in the neighborhood, one might say.

Gross GDP can be somewhat misleading: In Singapore, over 1/6 of the households have net assets of over USD 1 million.

This is water under the bridge, though. I am more interested in creative solutions, and would like to see more comments in that direction.

[Paul R.]

Speaking of how real wealth allows greater defense spending, a few numbers on that chart are highly illustrative / really jump out:

In 2010, % of GDP -

Israel 6.5% (not THAT wealthy, but incredibly threatened)
UAE 6.9%
Oman 8.5% (18.3% in 1988 - Wow!)
Saudi Arabia 10.1 %