Skip to comments.Could Los Angeles withstand a “megaquake’?
Posted on 12/15/2013 4:01:58 AM PST by Olog-hai
As cities grow and technology evolves, the increasing level of complexity enhances vulnerability to earthquakes. Its not a question of if the San Andreas fault ruptures in Southern California, but when. [ ]
Seismologists at the US Geological Survey have simulated the effects of the next big Californian earthquake in a program of study called ShakeOut. One of their computer models assumes that the next big event on the San Andreas fault will be magnitude 7.8, with a single event in which a rupture starts in Southern California near the Salton Sea and then shoots north along the fault to hit Los Angeles. [ ]
The end result would be that around half the buildings in the area would have to be abandoned. But the models most disturbing results show that beyond the building damage there would be significant disruption of interdependent infrastructure. Transportation, gas and electricity supplies, sewerage systems, water supplies and communications would all be affected. Whether a modern civic society could operate under such conditions is questionable.
(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.co.uk ...
It’s one thing to call something “evidence” and yet another thing to really understand what you’re looking at. This kind of bad science is all over the place. The same effect could be caused by several smaller eruptions. Nobody was around millions of years ago, least of all these scientists.
The evidence shows it erupting repeatedly along that valley, but I don't there there's good evidence it actually "blew through" a mountain range. The eruptions have been following a path of least resistance but if the hotspot keeps traveling northwest like that it's actually going to end up underneath a mountain range and some geologists believe that will cap future eruptions for a long time.
Well, we wont have to worry long after that one. Supposedly would wipe most of us off the planet within a year.
I certainly would not mind finding out if your theory is correct....
It created a series of calderas through the state of Idaho. There were once mountains all along that diagonal path through Idaho (see diagram). A caldera is a huge volcanic crater.
They can also tell how large past eruptions were by the size of the ash and hardened lava deposits attributed to them.
Actually big, >6, have occured in LA about every 20 years or so. Slightly overdue now, I’d actually be more worried about thrust faults within LA proper itself.
There’d be a hell of a lot of conservatives to go with it. How could a fellow human being really wish such a thing?
Seismic design emphasizes maintenance of a building’s structure to allow evacuation and prevent loss of life.....in that bldg.
Codes really don’t mandate utilities to be seismically designed, except where mandated by the owner.
Your older, utility distribution and transmission systems are the highest risk, largest felt impacts, which effect all human operations.
For example, potable water management has long been identified as a major risk. For this reason secondary reservoirs and aquaducts have been built over the years, but they also are vulnerable to seismic events.
Most utility systems can be patched within about 3 weeks and restored over 6months to 2 years, if replacement materials are available.
The first 3 days will be the most pivotal in emergency management. Without water distribution systems, wastewater systems won’t work, nor will firefighting on any broad scale operation.
Fuel deliveries will be interrupted and demand will increase. Lines of communication will be impeded, interrupted, some without restoration over years.
Without water, people become very irritable in about 3 days.
It will be a race to either sail away or get to the Colorado River from SoCA in the first 10 days.
The military and FEMA will only make things worse. Centralized command and Decentralized control is paramount, but these institutions have reversed course in the last decade, now promoting centralized control over all resources. The masses expecting the government to provide, will dwarf the government’s capacity to deliver. Consequentially, the government will turn more of its resources to defending it’s control, instead of providing aid and comfort to the destitute.
Go 3 days without water and people get fairly desperate.
Swimming pools and natural watersheds will be highly valued commodities. If they can get by the first 3 weeks on water, the rest of the systems can be restored.
Individual reserves will likely be expended in the first 5 days, then the following 3 days, emotions and public action will harden. Along with aftershocks, the remaining events will manifest the virtue of the survivors.
Of course, Rev 6:12-17 and Rev 16:17-21 mentioning every mountain and island being shaken and later not ever found again, indicates God’s Judgment and wrath might very well dwarf anything we might anticipate.
Since He also operates today out of grace, and warns those who have not yet received Him of the dire consequences, it would be consistent in His grace to make an example of those who have become aware of Him, but have turned away, especially if a Great Tribulation is so approaching.
As the Day of the Lord approaches, IMHO, His grace might allow complete destruction of those who have completely turned away from Him, especially if they have promoted measures to prevent others from returning to Him.
U should not have told them
The resul ts are there to see. Take Toba for example: it deposited some 600 cubic kilometers of ash. Locations as far away as India were covered 6 feet deep. You can still see the ash layers.
Like I say, the evidence is quite obvious to anyone willing to look. But not to those with eyes pressed tight shut.
Still tricky to say “the evidence”. It’s unscientific to look at physical material and backstory it into being “evidence”. Nobody was around to observe Toba either.
If you want your La-La Land, you can keep your La-La Land.
. . . period.
Please, don’t let the survivors move to Texas.
Nobody saw Krakatoa erupt either. Well, nobody that LIVED. . .
And yes, we have OBSERVED ashfall and pyroclastic flow patterns, and measured their depth and age, via radioisotope dating.
Since you don’t trust geologist’s expertise. . . perhaps you should not avail yourself of the fruits of their expertise.
No oil or anything fossil-fuel powered, no petroleum derivatives, and I assume you’re going to move to a log cabin with absolutely no metal fixtures or items. . .
How does one gauge a geologist’s “expertise”? They have only each other to judge each other.
Radio-decay dating only estimates the when, not the how. Assuming it works, that is.
Plenty of living people heard the explosions and saw the ash cloud. Quite a time differential between that and literal eons.
That also begs the question of earth-derived fuels being “fossil”-derived as well, which is very much up for debate and no more a “settled science” (oxymoronic phrase) than AGW.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.