Do you believe someone can calculate the probability of an event occurring without knowing what all the possible variables are?
Certainly, but the ‘outcome’ will of necessity discard all outcomes which do not fit within the pre-conceived parameters for the calculations. Maxwell’s Equations are a prime example ... Einstein’s inclusion of ‘Lambda’ in his relativity calculations is sort of another, since he had no experimental data from which to conclude that a lambda was needed so he included it in order to factor out ‘outcomes’/solutions which he believed, given his data sets —limited as they were— were absurd solutions.