Skip to comments.Michael Barone: Obama's numbers went down, but Romney never inspired voters to vote
Posted on 12/26/2012 9:21:54 PM PST by neverdem
In combing through the results of the 2012 election -- apparently finally complete, nearly two months after the fact -- I continue to find many similarities between 2012 and 2004 and one enormous difference.
Both of the elections involved incumbent presidents with approval ratings hovering around or just under 50 percent facing challengers who were rich men from Massachusetts (though one made his money and the other married it).
In both cases, the challenger and his campaign seemed confident he was going to win. and had reasonable grounds to believe so.
In both elections, the incumbent started running a barrage of negative ads defining the challenger in the spring. And in both elections, the incumbent had at least one spotty debate performance.
In both elections, each candidate concentrated on a more or less fixed list of target states, and in both elections the challenger depended heavily on outside groups' spending that failed to achieve optimal results.
The popular vote margins were similar -- 51 to 48 percent for George W. Bush in 2004, 51 to 47 percent for Barack Obama in 2012.
The one enormous difference was turnout. Turnout between the 2000 and 2004 elections rose from 105 million to 122 million, plus 16 percent. Turnout between the 2008 and 2012 elections fell from 131 million to 128 million, minus 2 percent.
Turnout is a measure of organization but also of spontaneous enthusiasm.
In 2004 John Kerry got 16 percent more popular votes than Al Gore had four years before. But he lost because George W. Bush got 23 percent more popular votes than he had four years before.
Kerry voters were motivated more by negative feelings for Bush than by positive feelings for their candidate. They disagreed with Bush's major policies and disliked him personally. The Texas twang, the swagger, the garbled sentence structure -- it was like hearing someone scratch his fingers on a blackboard.
Bush voters were more positively motivated. Political reporters had a hard time picking this up. His job rating was weak, but Bush voters tended to have a lot of warmth for him.
He had carried us through 9/11, he had confronted our enemies directly, he had pushed through with bipartisan support popular domestic measures like his education bill and the Medicare prescription drug benefit.
His criticism of his opponents was measured and never personal, and he blamed none of his difficulties on his predecessor (who had blamed none of his on his).
This affection evaporated pretty quickly, in the summer of 2005, with scenes of disorder in the streets of Baghdad and New Orleans. But it was there in 2004 and you can see it in that 23 percent turnout increase.
The 2012 election was different. Barack Obama got 6 percent fewer popular votes than he had gotten in 2008. And Mitt Romney got only 1 percent more popular votes than John McCain had four years before.
In retrospect, it looks like both campaigns fell short of their turnout goals. Yes, examination of election returns and exit polls indicates that the Obama campaign turned out voters where it really needed them.
That enabled him to carry Florida by 1 percent, Ohio by 3 percent, Virginia by 4 percent, and Colorado and Pennsylvania by 5 percent. Without those states he would have gotten only 243 electoral votes and would now be planning his presidential library.
But the conservative bloggers who argued that the Obama campaign's early voting numbers were below target may have been right. If Mitt Romney had gotten 16 percent more popular votes than his predecessor, as John Kerry did, he would have led Obama by 4 million votes and won the popular vote 51 to 48 percent.
Romney, like Kerry, depended on voters' distaste for the incumbent; he could not hope to inspire the devotion Bush enjoyed in 2004 and that Obama had from a diminished number in 2008.
But, to continue this counterfactual scenario, if Obama had won 23 percent more popular votes this year than in 2008, he would have beaten Romney by 85 million to 69 million votes and by 54 to 44 percent.
In reality, Obama's vote and percentage went down. Considering what happened in Bush's second term, that suggests a course of caution and wariness for the re-elected president and his party.
Obama lost 5.6M whites votes in 2012. Romney gained 1.3M white votes over McCain.
Does anyone else thing that stat sticks out like a sore thumb?
IIRC, Sean Trende had a similar analysis. I've been waiting for a more detailed analysis with the final vote totals.
I don't hear it discussed much among the pundits.
IMHO, we'll be reading about it more from Trende and Barone shortly. Barone's syndicated with a restriction on essay length.
See post #33 for turnout numbers. They were massive.
We voted. That wasn't the problem. Of course it was voter fraud.
Surely no one believes America voted to reelect the Marxist/Muslim usurper- the worst president in American history?
Can't you just imagine the above was the scene with Obama and his Commie staff after stealing the election through voter fraud- while Conservatives blame Romney, argue, point fingers, blather on about who to run in four years, 'starting a new party', and try to figure out how to suck up to minorities the 'next time'?
Next time? What makes them think the massive voter fraud in this last farce of an election won't be repeated? If we don't clean up our voting system, there may not be a next time. We may not see another Republican president in our lifetime
Map from Barack Obama Voter Fraud 2012
What most refuse to acknowledge is that it was unlikely that ANYBODY could have beaten the voter fraud planned and perpetrated by the criminal Obama machine. They seem to prefer pointing fingers, blaming Romney and blathering on about who to run in 2016 and how to suck up to the minorities.
>Polls indicated that Romney was going to win the election.
>The economy is close to Great Depression era conditions, and unemployment is almost as high as when Obama entered office.
>Economic conditions became so dire after Obama took office it prompted the rise of an entire new movement, the Tea Party.
>Presidents rarely win reelection when the economy is in the tank.
>Mitt knew it too, when he was met by several thousand in that parking garage cheering him when he arrived unannounced at that airport, and he put his hand over his heart and said, 'This is how you know you've won'.
So how did Romney lose a race that numerous reputable polls and pundits predicted would be an easy win, based on historical patterns?
Massive voter fraud.
That and no other reason
Almost every major Conservative website has put out an article charging voter fraud- Breitbart, American Thinker, Atlas Shrugs, WND, The Blaze, Front Page Magazine, Fox News, The Daily Caller, Town Hall, Human Events, Canada Free Press...
We cannot wait for 2014 and 2016 to regroup and figure out new strategies. By then it will be too late. The Marxist/Muslim usurper will have completed his planned distruction of America. That's what people fail to understand.
We must act NOW.
Start with the election. If we let the Rats get away with this massive voter fraud, we're no better than a bananna republic.
We must keep digging and pounding him every day, in every way we can- phony birth certificate, Benghazi, Fast and Furious, his hidden life, records....
Col Allen West; "I don't want to see America become like Zimbabwe where people dont trust their electoral process. If we cannot trust the integrity of the voting system then we are no longer a free republic".
Col West has opened the door.
We must fight election fraud.
It falls on We the People.
Silence is consent
The website,'Barack Obama Vote Fraud 2012' is keeping a running account of cases of voter fraud and what to do about it:
Visit the site- Here
Photo of SOMALIANS brought to Ohio voting stations by the busload, 95% of whom did not speak English, and told to vote for Obama, straight Dem ticket- Here
'Human Events', report pollwatcher eyewitness to busload of Somalians at Ohio poll, spoke no English, told to vote Obama Here
Republican pole watchers; busloads of Somalians brought in Here
THE JEWISH TASK FORCE makes a excellent case that Mitt defeated Obama in 2012, if not for fraud. Here
CANADA FREE PRESS: Here
Hannity and Col Allan West slam voter fraud on 'Hannity' after the election Nov 12- Here
Believe it or not, there ARE patriots out there who are going to FIGHT Obama's reelection- unlike the spineless Republicans who remain silent!
Visit the website; 'The Competent Conservative'
'These elections are NOT certified yet. The only way to get this investigated, much less recounted or overturned, is through the Secretary of State of each of the five key states: Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. EVEN IF YOU ARE IN ANOTHER STATE you can help. But it wont do any good to dilute our effort to challenge California or Michigan or other states. Until a major group gets involved to do more, here is the plan: Contact the Secretary of State of the state in question. See contact information below... '
Visit the website, 'Halt Voter Fraud':
'This election is not over - YET. Obama has not been elected by the Electoral College - YET. The Presidential election is being stolen from us with "Chicago Style" thuggery - and we can STOP the thieves in their tracks. But we do not have time on our side. This is our LAST chance. Don't give up. We must act now.
If massive voter fraud has occured as alleged by so many, and if the state vote counts include these FRAUDULENT votes, then is it logical to say that the entire state vote is COMPROMISED and can't be trusted? 59,000,000 Americans might agree!
The state vote is used to determine the allocation of Electors in the Electoral College which actually elects the President and Vice President.
If the vote count is FRAUDULENT, FLAWED, and CAN'T BE TRUSTED - and if the Electors have been FRAUDULENTLY allocated based on FLAWED vote counts - then WE CANNOT ALLOW THE GOVERNORS TO SIGN THEIR CERTIFICATES of ASCERTAINMENT on December 17th. We can stop this if we ACT IMMEDIATELY.
***** CALL TO ARMS ***** FIVE STATE CAPITOLS ***** SEVEN DAYS *******
Patriots must rally NOW in the State Capitols of Harrisburg,PA - Richmond, VA - Tallahassee, FL - Columbus, OH, and Madison, WI ****** MASSIVE RALLIES ** *** PATRIOT LEADERS ORGANIZE YOUR LOCAL EFFORTS NOW, coordinate with the other PATRIOT groups as they also rally, let us know who you are and how you will respond, how we can help.
Remember the Battle of Trenton?
We can make HISTORY TODAY.'
Obama Voter Fraud on FaceBook- Here
Sign this petition- almost 117,000 and counting -cards, email- Here
Sign the We The People petition. It has 60,000 signatures and counting- Here
Click and sign the petition for a recount Here-
Must watch videos!
VIDEO-- Programmer Testifies About Rigging Elections With Vote Counting- Here
VIDEO- Illegal Aliens Caught Voting and Stealing Elections In Florida In Vast Numbers- Here
VIDEO- MICHAEL SAVAGE: How Obama fixed the 2012 election- Here
VIDEO- Massive voter fraud discovered in April- Here
VIDEO- Whistle blower speaks out about voter fraud- Here
Voter fraud from Tea Party: Here
The American Dream- 22 Signs That Voter Fraud Is Wildly Out Of Control And The Election Was A Sham: Here
Town Hall : Obama Likely Won The Election Through Voter Fraud: Here
American Thinker: Was The Election Stolen:? Here
WSVN-TV Almost 1K Ballots Found In Broward Elections Warehouse: Here
Pundit Press; In Florida Obama Got Over 99% In Broward County Precincts: Here
Natural News.com: 19,605 to Zero IS Statistical Proof Of Outright Vote Fraud in 2012 Presidential Election: Here
Realville, USA: The Great Election Robbery of 2012? Here
WND: Here's How Touchscreens Killed Romney Votes: Here
The American Dream: Election Fraud? Obama Won More Than 99% Of The Vote in More Than 100 Ohio Precincrs: Here
WND: The Big List Of Voter Fraud Reports: Here
Nachum's List of Voter Fraud: Here
Newt Gingrich 360: Here
Appalachian Forums: Here
Before It's News: Here
Political Outcast: Here
True The Vote: Here
Fox News Insider: Here
Human Events; Here
The Will County News: Here
Fox News: Here
Accuracy In Media The Left's national voter fraud strategy exposed: Here
Thousands of military votes uncounted or missing: Here
Human Events: Here
Front Page Magazine: Here
The Blaze Here
The Daily Caller: Here
Front Page Magazine Here
Military Voter Protection Project: Here
Fox News Here
The Blaze Here
The best Obama Exposure site on the net, The Obama File: Here
The United StatesLibrary of Congress has selected TheObamaFile.com for inclusion in its historic collection of Internet materials Here
Why? Did you stay home believing his prediction, so you didn't have to vote? He wasn't alone in his prediction. Nobody predicted such a drop off in the white vote. He predicted 2010 fairly well.
I’d followed him for 18 years since his MA Senate race in 1994. There was a reason I was warning folks about him virtually every day on FR going back to at least 2006, and I was proven right. My basic benchmark is honesty and integrity, and he possessed neither. He’s lied in every race he has ever run. I don’t vote for liars. McCain was bad enough, but this was a bridge too far to cross and I valued my own integrity and conscience. My state voted for him in a landslide, so thankfully I didn’t have to worry about it.
While you guys are claiming all those huge numbers, just remember that Romney only gained a total of 927 thousand votes, while Obama lost almost 4 million votes from his total.
Turnout was down in 2012.
Romney was flat and unable to inspire voters.
Do you all at least agree that untapped white voters are the only realistic chance the gop has of winning?
No I don’t, we need a candidate who can run on a conservative platform, and win votes.
I think that when we eventually see the numbers, that we will find that Romney even did very badly with Protestant Hispanics, as he did poorly with whites and everyone else.
One of my aunts voted for Gary Johnson.
Expecting voters to know whats going on and their reliance on MSM is just part of why our great loss. While there are examples of fraud which may close up the gap, the gap is too big to blame the loss on fraud ...Expecting GOP Es to address media bias or Romney to call Obama a congenital liar or even point out that the fact and figures released by the white house were allways questionable is another Let alone call him a “socialist”..
But the fault lies really in the messaging the Republican campaign came up with choking on political correctness or triping over past positions on global warming and Romneycare both of which were bread and butter issues. .Then busy responding to pseudo positions devised by the demo-com party and echoed by their hand maiden camp followers in the media allowing them to set the agenda ..
Romney ran a Johnny One Note Campaign. Used a poison dart blow gun when he should have used a cannon loaded with grape shot because he had pleanty of stuff he could fill that cannon barrel with..
They failed to hammer away on what will happen when Obama gets returned; The Obama past due 2013/14 Tax Increases. The impact of Obamas gagging energy.resources.(a socialist construct never branded as such) with policies requiring reliance on intermittent sources wind and solar and that resulting in massive corruption .,restricted use of drilling, and coal ,bans and on fracking, and resulting prices doubling on everything.. This was a bread and butter issue which reached into every demographics pocketbook including accepting the demo-com definition of hyphenated African-Hispanic -Americans . .The impact of Supreme Court Appointments.. 18,000 new IRS agents and on and on. .
Some were very briefly touched most werent and Benghazi/ foreign policy was left to languish. Then there is Obamas personal extravagance and behavior refusing to visit Nashville after its disaster showing up at New Orleans after Mitt visited it. Even after the Christi thing if that was brought up it would have blunted the impact.
Instead we got a sales pitch on executive ability but not the reason why one should toss the old model and buy his. That print and tv pitch , 20 million new jobs, was given a discrarded dose of skepticism .
In addition Rove who I understand was handling the Charter PAC senate campaign played games. His material never warned voters that IF OBAMA GETS RE-ELECTED AND SENATE CONTROL REMAINED . .. OBAMACARE AND ALL THE TAX INCREASES THAT GO WITH IT WILL NEVER GET REPEALED Let alone tie into or cover the formentioned grape shot which would have perhaps changed that body. I don’t recall any of that material directed toward that fact.
Finally they didnt believe the polls which turned out were dead on. Even going as far as setting up focus groups which could have looked into whats going on . Even to the point of going out to local eateries and bars and eavesdrop into conversations and pick up on topics being discussed.(chat rooms twitter too contrived) They would have learned their turnout projections were off and the sence of urgency to get out the vote was diminished by their glowing projections and disbelief never mind ORCA which should have been tested. COMPLACENCY WAS ENCOURAGED BY THE MEDIA AND NOT COUNTER ACTED UPON
Our local small population (-8000) rural blue county GOP had at the outset good and growing attendence at their meetings 50 plus. At the meeting the Thursday before the election only about a dozen people showed up and I knew we were in trouble .
Nuts...This loss is inexcuseable, while I trully don’t believe Mitt Romney would ever continence losing, I’m begining to believe that most GOPE’s really didn’t want to see AHCA, (affordable health care act) otherwise known as ZerO care go ..excerpted from “Why We Lost” http://www.theusmat.com/
There was no "independent middle". This election was about getting your base out to vote. Romney was chasing rabbits down holes with "reaching the undecideds", while Hussein Obama was revving up his "free phones and kerosene-soaked flags" coalition to get out the vote. In 2008, we had a moderate-leftist foisted upon us by the GOP-e and the Mainsteam media, and had a 'conservative' VP thrown to us as a bone. In 2012, the same thing happened....with the exact same results. If anything less than a full-throated, dedicated Conservative Republican is nominated as President, I'm staying home and praying that the rapture will soon come...Romney didn't give a $hit about this year's election, why should I give one about any future elections? We were told that "this is the most important election of our lifetimes" by "Conservative" commentators and Republican operatives, yet by November 7 it was just another day at work for them. No, this election just about destroyed my chances of ever making decent money again. I'm an Engineering graduate, worked for 24 years, fired from my job in 2009, and with no construction work going on there'll be no more openings for someone like me. I guess I should be happy with my assistant teacher job and the 75% income loss that I got under Hussein Obama, just like Sean Hannity is okay with his "good friends Juan WIlliams and Bob Beckel, and the Architect Karl Rove". However, just screw Hannity, Limbaugh, and their "good friends from across the aisle".
It’s all nice that you blame “voter fraud”. Apparently, the GOP-e, Sean Hannity, and Rush LImbaugh didn’t seem to think that voter fraud and voter intimidation were important enough to contest the election. Oh well....they’re probably having a wonderful vacation out in Hawaii with their “good friend from across the aisle” Barack Obama, while my family has to worry about whether we can pay for Christmas.
Exactly. Zero's re-election will have little effect on the lifestyles of Rush, Hannity, Levin, and all the other pundits out there...even with all their yapping on the radio; the country slides further to the left.
All states have certified vote totals except for New York and Hawaii (astoundingly, New York may not be done for weeks more.)
Accounting for population growth, Romney got 96.8% of the votes that Bush did in 2004 in the Bible Belt states other than Texas (for obvious reasons Texas skews the results); these include Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
In all the states OUTSIDE the Bible Belt, Romney only got 88.4% compared to Bush.
It's pretty clear that Romney got MORE support from evangelicals and the "base" than he did from moderates and independents, and the cause for the loss was not getting enough moderate and independent votes.
No, why would I stay home and not vote based on what he said or wrote? He could not have been more wrong and his reputation was destroyed by this election.
Two differing strategic responses present themselves:
1) Move the GOP further to the Left. Become even more like the Democrats. Maybe we can suck up additional moderate and independent voters!
2) Find a candidate who actually believes in Conservative valuies and actually wants to make the case for Conservatism. Sell our ideas to the moderates. Convince them that the Left is wrong. Take a principled stand and educate the voters.
Even a true conservative won’t be president again IMO. Too much dem & media corruption...
Plus I know a bunch of so-called normal people who always vote dem. You can’t even talk to them. I’m surrounded by liberals & totally sick of arguing with them.
They all think great things are going to come from obamacare. Even my sister thinks that way. You have to talk sports or weather on Christmas to avoid tension.
My cousin, whose husband is a PHD, wrote on FB:
“I like Barack Obama.”. They’re in their 60’s.
It can be done a number of ways as you outline, but the only way to win in 2016 is convince about 3 million people that voted for Obama in 2012 (and probably in 2008 as well) to vote for the Republican candidate.
It can’t be done by squeezing out 6 million more “true conservatives” to turn out that didn’t vote in 2012 because
1) they don’t exist
2) If they did, the vast majority are in states that Romney won easily anyway.
Now wait a second Romney won Independents in Ohio by double digits.
Something Bush never did.
Clearly he maxed out on I’s he needed the stay at home conservatives that just like you said were 3.2% int the Bible Belt and 11.6% outside.
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